Eels Blogs

Being so conjested, it can hamper and favour us. Though puts our fates in our hands. Had we made all our goals against Cronulla or Gold Coast, won in golden point against Melbourne or even not made dumb errors against Manly at Brookvale, we would be sitting 3rd by tonight. Now we are sitting 4 points out of the top 2, but 2 points out of top 4. We verse three of the current top 4, all away. Fate of our premiership hopes are squarly in our hands.

Let's first go through the opposition, starting with those who are pretty much certain to be in the top 8 come years end.

Penrith: Proven we can beat them and can 9/10 times get up to verse them.

Brisbane: Can be flimsy come years end, immaturity is still there, cockiness is still there. I believe Walters is the not the man to guide them past more than week 2, feel he is not able to coach them well enough mentally. He is starting to panic that it could be 2022 all over again where they were in top 4 with 7 games left and missed the 8. If he is like that it can rub off on the squad. We can beat them.

Melbourne: Always get up for them, will play them at Marvel Stadium, where we havent had much luck in past however they seemed out of their element there against Penrith. We can beat them definately.

South Sydney: Always a team that troubled us, got up in round 12 surprisingly, fluke? Well not so much since we went our run from that game. If we see them in semis would we beat them? Well again i am cautious of them once on a roll.

Now the ones that are confident of being there but not 100% sure.

Cronulla: They are the Parramatta of old, the reverse Robin Hood's of the NRL, taking points from the point and giving to the rich. They are still a few years off being a force in the finals. Young coach, young spine and not knowing what a big match is like. We could definately beat them if had our time again.

Canberra: I feel they are a tad overrated, Cooper Cronk mentioned he wouldn't want to verse Canberra in September. They have won 9 of past 11, look who they have beaten. Brisbane, St. George Illawarra, Redcliffe, Canterbury, Parramatta (no Moses), Souths (Minus Origin players), Wests (Barely), Sydney City and Gold Coast. The only impressive win would be Brisbane at Suncorp. They are scraping by but if faced with Penrith, NQ, Melbourne or us the way we are playing they would be in big trouble.

NZ Warriors: A team i thought would be a force, now i feel they are hitting a bit of a wall, they are a team that i feel could trouble the likes of Melbourne with their unorthadox play, however against Souths they showed they were vulnerable. They do not have a plan B, the weather forced them to change from their free flowing attack to adding more structure and it didn't suit as they didn't know how to create 2nd phase play off the back of it. Their back-rowers are just big boppers running lines, they do not create much for them. They will make the 8, may even beat us on Saturday as we have no Moses or Brown, but not surprised either if we get them. See if a loss like that at home motivates them or damages their spirits.

Now to the teams that are in contention and could make it or might just miss out.

Sydney City: Media keep hoping, Matty Johns every week is saying "They will fire this week" as god forbid they do not perform. They are done, even if they hit some form they are that tired as a group and void of new ideas they are finished.

Manly: No Turbo is an issue, DCE is good but Schuster lets them down, i do not think they make a dent in finals. If we played them full strength and vice versa we would have beaten them based on 34-4 with our depths.

Gold Coast: Dr. Jekyll Mr Hyde team. They have the makings of a great team, just mentally bad. I am not concerned by them in Round 20 as we will be full strength. They make take down a team in finals but that is it.

Dolphins: Hit a wall, they could scrap in but doubt it.

Now for a wildcard, I say wildcard as this team is placed in the middle of the first two, not quite guarenteed but also better than the second category:

North Queensland: Honestly they scare me as i cannot quite put my finger on them as yet. Yeah they are beating up on rubbish teams, but also beat Melbourne and Souths. Melbourne in Townsville which they have won 7 out of 9 this year at. We have them post Origin, round 21 in Townsville followed by Melbourne in Melbourne 6 days later, i feel this where a loss could happen. NQ have shown on fast and wet tracks they can adapt, getting players like Cotter, Nanai, Leilua, Taumalolo all back. Do i think they win the comp? No, as i feel they left their run a little too late, but i think they are better than most teams in the 8. Right now they can beat Cronulla, Canberra, Warriors, Melbourne, Brisbane and Souths. Only us and Penrith i am not sure about. I say us as not sure as i feel we can match them for points. 

Overall, to make the top 4, i feel we need to win at least 6 of our last 8. Maybe 5 but definately 6. Out of last 8, i feel the only sure fire wins (as in games we should definately win) are Gold Coast RD21, St. George Illawarra RD24 and Sydney City RD25. A win against the Warriors on Saturday is massive for our season, it puts us in around 5th-6th for the week. Now i know we will lose again, i am in favour of losing close to semi's as it gets it out of your system and the pressure is off so to speak of when is your next loss coming. But one loss also can spark a chain of losses. I feel the fortnight of NQ and Melbourne are the biggest of the 8 weeks. Due to the travel and simply that do not want to lose back to back at any point in the 8 weeks.

ATM in terms of form and the way we are beating teams, i feel we are top 4. But also look who we have beaten; Souths, NQ (Origin), Canterbury, Manly (Origin), Dolphins. Souths is the big one out of them so argument can be made that we are flat track bullies at the moment. Only difference is, our biggest loss this year was Brisbane 26-16. 10 points, that is it. We are matching every team, just luck seemed against us. That is where i am confident we can beat most teams. Plus we are dominating in every win we have had in last 5, not like Canberra scraping by, like pure hammerings.

We are good enough for top 4, but Warriors is where we start to make it. Beating Warriors will make it the most wins BA has had in a row as coach, most for us since 2009. I am not ready to call us contenders, if anything i place us the wildcard spot like NQ. We are under the radar, nobody is talking about us really still, i prefer that.