Andrew Ferguson

After finally cracking into the finals in 2017 after seven years in the wilderness, Parramatta were expected to build on their strong end-of-season form from 2017 and be a genuine top-eight side for 2018.

After a first round loss to Penrith, they were humiliated 54-0 by Manly, as they went on to lose their first six games. They then beat Manly 44-10 in the return game and the giant killing Wests Tigers 24-22 the week after, but then lost their next five straight games. They finally beat the equally out-of-form Cowboys in Round 14 before losing their next three games, which ended their mathematical chance of reaching the finals. They beat the Bulldogs in round 19, however, have remained in last place since their Round two loss to Manly.

Given they had very little change to their 2017 roster, the dramatic drop-off in form over the offseason is very surprising and totally unexpected.

So what happened?

MORE: Bulldog's Bite: Trent Barrett shouldn't cop the brunt for Manly Sea Eagles' woes

On average, the 2018 Eels are running the ball considerably less and are therefore making dramatically less metres. In 2017, the Eels made 40,813 metres and in 2018 they are set to reach 32,689.

As reported on in an earlier analysis, teams who run for more metres than their opponent, tend to win an overwhelming number of games.

The 2018 Eels are also trailing in other key attacking areas. In 2017 they made 108 Line breaks, which is set to be 33 more than this year, while last year will also see them have nine more try assists, 39 more offloads, four less errors, almost 50 more kicks and over 1000 more kick metres.

But there are some other stats where there is a huge difference.

In 2017, Parramatta made 726 tackle breaks. This year they are tracking to make just 589. The Eels were ranked eighth in both points scored and points conceded in 2017, but in 2018 they are 13th in defence and running dead last in attack.

However one of the telling stats is to do with Clint Gutherson. When Gutherson has played for Parramatta, the Eels have gone on to win 50.91% of games, however when he hasn’t played, the Eels have won just 38.46% of games. Given he missed all of the opening 5 games this year, which all resulted in losses for Parramatta, his absence could’ve been the most telling.

Given there’s been little change to the roster, perhaps the issue lies with the coach. Brad Arthur currently has had the third longest reign as Eels coach in their history, and is just one out of five coaches to have managed the side for more than 100 games. Yet as far as success goes, he ranks at 13th for the Eels with a win percentage of 45.9% from his 122 games.

Given the club had previously sacked the more successful Daniel Anderson in favour for Stephen Kearney, who won a paltry 23.8% of games as Eels coach and he eventually replaced by Ricky Stuart who had even less success at the club, winning 20.8% of games, Arthur does look very good in comparison.

But looking very good next to one win in four or five games isn’t hard. Parramatta have a lot of problems in 2018, not all are on the field either. They need more than a review, they need a culture overhaul. The Wests Tigers proved it can be done in a year.

Should the Eels persevere with what they have and hope that 2018 was just an oops? Or should they call in the brooms and have a do-over?