Sportsbet are offering $1.18 for the Raiders to beat the Sharks, the latter of whom are paying $5.00 to win. I understand that because the Sharks are no hope of winning after getting towelled by Raiders B grade side last week.
Thing is, Melbourne and Eels are paying the exact same prices respectively... that means the punters don't give the Eels a hope in hell of winning either. I don't think it is as clear cut as the first game.
I will be punting on Eels +13.5 at $1.90. I think that is really good value and havnt given up on the upset win. We were so close in 2017 and we have a better side this time around.
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Just put a multi on, Chooks and Parra $50
I know the odds are statistically correct (we don't do well against the Storm, we don't do well away from home, we have been in a form slump, we're lower on the ladder, the Storm rested all their key players, we have Brown just back from an injury) but I also don't feel like it's quite as much of a done deal as many are saying.
If there's one thing we know about Parra it's that we're unpredictable. We have a history of underperforming in games we should win and overperforming in games we should lose.
The Storm deserve to be strong favourites with all of the factors taken into account, but that would just make it all the sweeter if we won. I'm still backing us - it's what true supporters do.
At least we got humiliated by the most dominant team of the last few decades.
The Roosters got humiliated and obliterated by the Rabbits, and that wasn't last year, that was last week. Bush team with a bush coach.
I didn't draw any direct comparisons with rosters of last year or 2017. The only things analogous with 2017 and 2020 is that its a finals game, against Melbourne, away from home, in which the Eels are expected to get belted. In 2017 we almost won (probably should have), despite expectations.
I agree. The overall quality of the surface at bank west has gone backwards fast as well. It's turned from a high scoring track to a low scoring one.
You can work it out as the season progresses, and when you do Fong is still wrong. Eels place 3rd when Strength of Opposition is factored in, and Roosters drop to 5th...oops
Strength of Schedule in advance is a useless metric (lots of people had Broncos in the Top 4 at the beginning of the season) but SoS factored in historically absolutely shows if any teams are pretenders and don't deserve their ranking.
The Eels deserve their ranking. We are rightfully 3rd.
Wrong, again.
Eels against Top 8 this year: Win 5, Lost 3
Roosters against Top 8 this year: Win 5, Lost 5
Eels against Bottom 8 this year: Win 10, Lost 2
Rooster against Bottom 8 this year: Win 9, Lost 1
When you take Strength of Schedule into account for the 2020 season (which means you get more points for being teams high on the ladder and less for beating teams lower) you end up with Eels in 3rd place and Roosters in 5th place.
We are placed EXACTLY where we should be based on basically every single way you cut the season. Roosters by many cuts should actually be placed below Canberra.
But don't let facts and statistics ruin your incorrect opinions eh?
Check out the data: https://www.reddit.com/r/nrl/comments/j16ifs/wins_losses_vs_top_8_s...
Lol. Literally nearly every single year. Go and check the historical odds of Top 4 in Week 1 of finals.
You really like the feels over facts Fong.
Of course the back to back premiers (Roosters) would have higher odds, of course the most successful team of the modern era (Storm) would have solid odds. And the Panthers are minor premiers so also, of course they deserve favouritism.
Doesn't change the fact that, no matter how you slice it, Parra deserve to be 3rd this season. And statistically speaking Roosters are lucky to be 4th.
This is my point. I don't think the odds are reflective of the true prospects/positions. Its just my opinion. Melbourne deserve to be favourites and I believe its very likely they will win.
But paying $1.18 in a 2 horse race is over-hamming Melbourne's prospects.
I give us a real chance. We generally go well up at Suncorp. We have big outside backs, fergo Sivo Blake are all big men. They like a hard firm track.
I gave us zero chance last year against Melbourne in Melbourne on a typical drizzler but we are a chance on Saturday.
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