Eels Blogs

 Wow. Unforgettable. The moment we knew we were into the grand final after a 13-year wait. I'm still in shock.

And in one week, we face off against the Panthers, the competition's best team over the last few years.

Things often seem clearer in hindsight. And it's clear now the round 22 Souths' debacle was the turning point. Six weeks ago.

When we drew the line in the sand. 

Before and After

Brad Arthur essentially admitted it last night, at the pressor following the Eels backs-against-the-wall 24-20 win against a hot Cowboys side against the odds in Townsville, where the Cowboys had never previously lost a final (from 7) and a place we only won twice in twenty-two years (2/14). Telling history where to go.

"We wanted it real bad, and you could see that".

"I've seen it in their eyes since the Bulldogs game [R23]."

"They did it, not me."

"They got together, and had some real honest conversations about turning up every week, regardless of how they feel."

"And that was the mentality we took when we got up here."

"Just get on a plane, go up there, I don't care how you's [sic] feel,  just get the job done."

It was as far a Mercurian cry from his round 22 pressor as you could find; six weeks ago.

Back then, Arthur admitted his troops had been "bashed up" and "steamrolled" by Souths.

“Right from the start I thought physically we were well off the pace through the middle,” Arthur said back then. "[Off] The first kick-off they rolled 60 metres. We didn’t go to the contest through the middle of the field physically."

And Brad Arthur was also at a loss to understand why it was all happening.

“I don’t know why we didn’t start that way [with physicality and desire]. I will have to look into it, but there has to be a real want and desire to start that way and put your body on the line."

That was the end of Part One of the 2022 season.

But, after that game it all changed. Part Two.

And since then, we've won 5 from 6, and only dropped one against the top Panthers in the finals week one.

That's the best run we've had all year and since the early rounds of 2021, when we were flying high in second place on the ladder just behind the Panthers. It's come at the right time. 

The stats tell the story of Part One and Part Two.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics

Perhaps that too might be a lie, at least this time.

The statistics show the two parts of our season, quite clearly. The twenty-one games up to round 22, and what followed. Before and After.

Before, we scored at 23.38 ppg and conceded 22.05 ppg. After, we scored at 33 ppg and conceded 11.04 ppg. 

That's an improvement (blue) in the attack of over 40%, and almost 50% in defence. It shows, we are in with a shot against the Panthers who overall score at 26.7ppg and concede 13.5ppg. Considering, the Panthers are the best defensive unit in the competition, it shows you how much we've improved.

In the regular season, we were the worst defensive team of all top eight teams. We also conceded the most linebreaks all top eight teams. But that has also turned around. 

Before, we made 4.4 pg and conceded 5.1 pg. More than we made. After, we made at 6.2 ppg and conceded 3.8 pg. 

Again, comparable to the Panthers who make 5.1 per game concede 3.2.

In the regular season, we were the worst of all top eight teams when it came to metres conceded. But that also turned around, albeit less dramatically.

In most facets of the game, we've improved (blue) in the season's Part Two.

What's interesting is we're not really missing less much less tackles in our Part Two revival, but we've forced the opposition to miss far more (25% increase) and that's co-incided with our significant increase in linebreaks, tackle busts, and offloads as well (where we are the kings). The increased pressure we put on the opposition.

The offloading has gone off the charts; now offloading at an average of 17 pg. It's one of our most essential weapons, and one area we hold an advantage over the Panthers who offload on average at 8.5 pg; about half as much.

There are some areas we've regressed (see red line bars below) such as in our errors, completions, and kick metres.

This is understandable given the fact we're now "going for it" in attack more and offloading substantially more than we used to on average. The risk versus reward. Indeed, we couldn't afford to play too conservatively or tentatively go into our shell, and not go for it.

No Right

On the flip side, the Eels, statistically for the season, overall, we had no right either be crowned the best in the competition - nor win the preliminary finals against the Cowboys. 

Looking at Foxstats, one might wonder how did the Cowboys lose?

They had the bulk of possession (54%) and territory, a mountain more of opportunities (34-8 tackles in the opposition 20m red zone). They also made less errors (6-10), made more metres (1436m-1732m), were awarded more restarts (3-1) and penalties (7-5), missed less tackles (33-23), made far less tackles (338-267), less attacking kicks (4-10). Miraculously the Eels were hanging in by their fingernails at half time 12-12. Despite atrocious completion rates (11/18 (60%) completion rate v Cows 19/21 (90%) and a plethora of errors (8-2) at critical times. 

And when the Cowboys skipped ahead to 20-12 on the back of momentum, the game appeared almost lost and they were celebrating. 

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The only areas the Eels were ahead were in offloads (13-6) and had somehow made more linebreaks (6-5) to be able to counter punch off the back foot, off the ropes - as the Cowboys were on the front foot for most of the game with most of the momentum.

Somehow, we fought back, and defended our line like men possessed. With courage under fire, I've rarely seen from an Eels' team.

Before then, we'd only won twice in Townsville against the Cowboys in 22 years, and the Cowboys had never lost a final up there (7). 

Against the odds, telling history where to go.

Indeed, much of what transpired this season also suggests we have no right to be in the grand final - to be crowned the best.

No NRL premier in the last 21 years has ever conceded more a 20-point margin more than twice in the regular season. The Eels did it four times this year. Against the Cowboys 35-4 (R8), then last-placed Dogs (34-4 (R14), Broncos 36-14 (R19), Souths twice by 30-12 (R16) and then 26-0 (R22). At various times during the year, we have been embarrassing, losing to a few bottom dweller, including the last-placed wooden spooners (Tigers, 21-20, R6) in a game Arthur said "We lost respect for ourselves".

No NRL premier has had such a poor record of inconsistency as the Eels during the regular season. Every NRL premiers has had at least a few good runs with at least 4 - 15 straight wins. The Eels couldn't manage even one 4-straight winning run. We still haven't.  And as an aside, No NRL premier over the last 17 years has won from fourth place.

And also, to put the icing on the cake, we've had to do it largely with 16 men. 

On Friday night in the most critical game our club has faced in 13 years, our bench utility Jakob Arthur played zero minutes again. Nada. Cheerleading. Like he has for 11 of the 22 games he's played this year, hitherto.

And over the last 6 weeks during the Eels revival over Part Two - Jakob has only played for an average of 9 minutes a game.

Notably, in the Souths round 22 loss and other only loss since then in Part Two - Moses' absence and Arthur's presence counted.

In the Souths loss, Moses was out injured and Jake Arthur played the entire match and was targetted as a defensive liability by Cody Walker and the well-drilled Souths unit. In the Panthers' loss, we imploded almost immediately after Moses went off and Jakob Artur came on in the 59' minute. At that point, the scores went from 13-8 to 27-8 in twenty minutes. And it could have been a lot worse. Again, as was the case in the Souths game, the Panthers targeted Arthur's lack of speed (it's happened earlier in the year as well). Since round 22, Moses has played for 80 minutes in every game we've won. One wonders if Moses is playing and the game is on the line against the Panthers in the grand final - coming down to the wire in the last few minutes - will we see Jakob come on? 

All that aside, what has caused the change over the last six weeks?

Why? 

At least we know part of the reason we played as poorly at times during the year: we did not want it as badly as we should have.

It aligns with Dr Phil Jauncey's thinking and what most people know: the mental side of the game often being the difference. Dr Jauncey points out that the main reason talented elite athletes and teams with potential fail or succeed is largely due to the "want" factor; which includes decisions and choices made in the entire process - both off-field on on-field with some of those are due to unconscious and well as conscious decisions. That also involves changing habits that are holding one back. All of this leads to switching the brain automatically to either "on" to winner A mode, or "off" to loser Z mode. And all that is far more important than how you feel. Whether you have a good attitude or are motivated, contrary to mainstream sports psychologists. We've certainly seen the team switch on and off from loser to winner mode, throughout the first Part One of the season. And then, winner mode, in Part Two.

It seems the Eels finally did it. It took some pain and a few bashings, to get there, but we got there. They found themselves. As One.

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But, it also raises another question: why didn't the Eels want it as badly earlier in the year?

Maybe we didn't want to burn out, and took it easier before, to time our run? Maybe, they realize with the onset of "squeaky bum time" and the business end of the season - it's now or never as in 2023 they won't be together anymore. A reflection of the "No Regrets", "Nothing To Lose" mantra we've been hearing in Part Two.

Maybe they realize they care more about each other more deeply than they consciously knew, and decided to be the best they can be. No more crap. No more bashings. No more tomorrows, waiting. Certainly, Mitchell Moses' sacrifice shows how much he cares for the team and winning. Putting it above one of the most important events in a father's life; his firstborn's birth. Perhaps, they used to overestimate themselves and expected they merely needed to turn up? And probably, there other internal reasons may or may not ever be made public.

Whatever the whys, whats, hows, and previous reasons for switching on-off regularly, that's for the inner sanctum of the group to know. 

Us fans, we are just proud. Thank you.

Making us proud

On Friday night, I shed more than a tear, and I rarely cry. 

The Courage under fire, was extraordinary. All the stuff that transcends stats. 

It's shown the power of who we really are. The guts, will, spirit, the heart and the power of the Mind.

The power of deciding. To be all that we can be, regardless of how one may feel, and breaking past habits. The Good-Bad Sybil; on-off switches.

We also showed against the Raiders in finals week two, we can win pretty on the front foot with momentum and pounding them into submission when they were on the ropes. And now against a red-hot Cowboys team with momentum and field position against us, we've shown we can win off the back foot, counter-punching off the ropes under heavy fire.

We are now as much a team that is One as can be. 

And now, in seven days it's all on the line. It's Now Or Never.

Again, it will be against all Odds. Against the competition's best team over the last few years. The build-up will be intense. Glory beckons for one.

Just One More Time: Go You Eels! 

Source of stats: compiled from raw data off the www.nrl.com site (for blue/red stats), and Foxsport where noted. Some data also comes from the Rugby League Project site, an invaluable source of information.