You are a fear Prisoner. Yes, you are a product of fear.
Donnie Darko
In the 2001 Psychological Drama / Thriller, ‘Donnie Darko’, the very ‘out there’ cult classic film follows the story of ‘Donnie’ - an emotionally unstable sleepwalking teenager with symptoms of schizophrenia - (played perfectly by the Parramatta Eels) who is haunted by Frank - a terrifying man-rabbit (South Sydney) - who taunts Donnie with the prediction that the world (our season) is going to end in 28 days (just under 48 hours…).
Its all a little dark this week, I’ll apologise in advance…
But there is good news! It’s Indigenous round… and I can only assume our whitest, and only Indigenous player, J’Maine Hopgood, will inspire our team to rise above the likes of Latrell Mitchell, Cody Walker, Alex Johnston, Isaiah Tass, Taane Milne & the entire Rabbitohs club who’s roots are historically engrained within the Indigenous community & culture.
It's the 2023 draw that just keeps on giving.
On a serious note though, this week is an opportunity to appreciate the many Indigenous players, coaches, employees & fans involved in the game.
Without delving into the politics of the Indigenous round, one aspect I'm sure everyone can agree on is the Indigenous players bring limitless levels of skill & entertainment and this alone is more than worthy of appreciation.
Welcome to our nightmare.
Team Lists
Parramatta Eels Vs South Sydney Rabbitohs at Allianz Stadium, Friday 19th of May @ 8:00pm AEDT.
Eels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Bailey Simonson 5. Sean Russell 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Wirremu Greig 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Junior Paulo 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Andrew Davey 13. J’maine Hopgood 14. Ofahiki Ogden 15. Brendan Hands 16. Ryan Matterson 17. Makehesi Makatoa
Head Coach: B-Radical Arthur
Rabbitohs: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Campbell Graham 5. Taane Milne 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Tevita Totola 9. Damien Cook 10. Hame Sele 11. Michael Chee-Kam 12. Jacob Host 13. Cameron Murray 14. Blake Taaffe 15. Jai Arrow 16. Liam Knight 17. Daniel Suluka-Fifita
Head Coach: J-Dog Demetriou
Recent History
How can you do that, Frank?’, ’I can do anything I want’
Donnie Darko
Much like ‘Frank’, the terrifying man-rabbit in Donnie Darko, Souths have been able to pretty much do whatever they want against the Eels.
However, all 5 of those victories from the past 23 games have been under Brad Arthur. So, it's improving, right?
Wrong.
The Eels have also never beaten Souths with Latrell Mitchell in their side.
And now, for the bad news, all that recent history was against a Souths side who were arguably not as well rounded & lethal as the 2023 version.
The 2023 Souths have become just as dangerous attacking down their right side as their left, which has predominantly been one of, if not the best, in the NRL for some time.
In 2023 Souths right side attack is the 3rd best in the competition, aided by the form of Campbell Graham, who is now firmly in NSW Origin discussions.
Defeating the Rabbitohs
There is a way, the Panthers have shown that winning the middle & frustrating the Rabbitohs through line speed, relentless defensive pressure & a near perfect defensive wall is a successful strategy.
Which, is encouraging news if you are a Panthers supporter.
BUT, we know the Eels are capable of a Premiership defence 2-3 times per season also.
Can this, of all times, be the week we pull out the ‘Verse Penrith’ defensive resilience & scramble we are capable of?
Defence: The Missing Middle 'Nexus'
Sun Tzu, the legendary military strategist , and author / philosopher behind the book ‘The Art of War’ which they say (Wiki says) ‘revolutionised combat’, believes invincibility lies in the defence.
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack.
Sun Tzu, Chinese Military General & Strategist, Philosopher
Historically, Rugby League agrees with Sun. We’ve all heard it, ‘Defence wins Premierships’, it’s a consistent theme amongst the most successful coaches & clubs.
Since 2014, when Brad Arthur took over the reigns of the Eels, only one team has won the premiership with a defence outside the top 4 - the NQ Cowboys of 2015 - who had the 5th best defence, and 2nd best attack.
The Eels defensive record within this period, however, has been anything but Premiership material.
Is it purely coincidence that the Eels best seasons defensively under BA have been when either Beau Scott (2016) or Nathan Brown (in his prime, 2019-2021) were defending in the middle?
Are we badly missing that defensive ‘nexus’, that middle player who connects the defensive line, enforces line speed, intent, & brings confidence to other players around them?
One positive is, we don’t need to win a Premiership in Round 12, we just need a victory, so, is it better to utilise our strengths as opposed to rely on our weakness, especially against the (arguably) best attacking team in the competition right now?
With all that in mind, is it time to say ‘f**k Sun Tzu’ and his invincible defence theory? And maybe listen to another ‘undefeated’ legendary Military Strategist in Prussian General Carl Von Clausewitz, who claimed:
The best form of defence, is attack.
Carl Von Clausewitz, Prussian General & Military Strategist
So, there are statistical anomalies that happen in Rugby League, but each of those anomalies (Premiers), ranked top 4 in one or the other - defence or attack. They strategised to utilise their strengths.
The 2023 Eels ‘Art of War’ looks to be their attack, and maybe that attack & early points, throwing Souths completely off their game & what they’ll be expecting from us, could bring confidence, belief & even defensive resolve?
We all want to see consistent resilience & confidence in our defence, thats the ticket to a Premiership & obviously priority one.
But how after 10 years of not consistently resolving issues within our defensive systems, or application of those systems, can we realistically expect those defensive issues to be resolved in a week, against our worst possible opponent, in a near must-win game, with key personal missing, and our confidence shot?
That, is going to take a Herculean effort.
A Circuit Breaker
From the destruction that is the 2023 season to date, maybe there is an opportunity to create something new, to flick the switch on our ‘chase the collision’ mantra.
Destruction after all, is a form of creation.
Donnie Darko (and Grahame Green)
The Eels look as though they are in desperate need of a refresh. We look mentally beaten, and nothing seems to be going quite right, despite the effort.
Maybe, our attack, our strength, can be that circuit breaker, for now?
Attack with & without the ball. Pushing the referee’s boundaries in the ruck, line speed & aggression, and playing aggressive & expansive footy from the first set with possession.
Of course, the risks are high, but this game looks as close to un-winnable as they come due to a perfect storm of negatives working against us.
The Eels are front runners, the stats tell us this but we can all see it - when we get an early lead we are at our best & are hard to run down, get too far behind though, & we seem to defeat ourselves.
Brad Arthur said he wants the players to turn this game into a ‘dogfight’ - ‘complete high’ & ‘make our tackles’.
Bottom Line
It’s just honestly hard to see how the Eels will defend their way to victory against South Sydney in a ‘dogfight’?
Souths are just relentless in their attack, and we simply can’t hold teams out for prolonged periods in our red zone.
It's a methodology that has repetitively failed against them.
Either way, our season is already on the line - maybe it's not a must-win, but another flogging right now might destroy an already damaged team psyche?
BA & these players have shown incredible fight & spirit with their backs against the wall previously, we are going to need our best yet here.
Have your say, 1EE, If you were BA, what would your game plan be? What are you doing differently?
Good luck Parra.
Replies
Think we need to kick early and I'd be put a few grabbers behind the post get latrell moving around quick play the ball is key
Great stuff NOS, you are too good for Frank!......... you guys are becoming pretty special with these previews, I doubt that any other social media site could get near the quality of what you guys do every week.
Thank you Pops, appreciate it.
You write attack & early points could throw Souths off their game. Problem is we don't score early points we only score points when down by 3 tries or more, Hands comes on and we take risks.
Is it raining? We beat Penrith in the rain and most of our best defensive games are when it is wet and teams can't spread the ball. We have also shown we aren't afraid to throw the ball around in rain and looked good doing it when chasing points earlier this year.
FM, agree, we don't score points early on beacuse we want to 'earn the right' to play footy - complete high, win the collision etc...
But, do we have time to 'earn the right' this week against a team like Souths? Or is this the game we break the shackles and go for early points & try take them off-guard?
You make a great observation about the rain / wet weather footy too, its a shame its all clear tonight.
Great review. Looking at our defensive record shows we overachieved big time last year.
We have almost no resolve when defending our line, hardly ever show any line speed and can't seem to number up. Just for once try to slow down the opposition play the ball speed. That is a stat we lose every week.
I have lost count of the number of times the opposition simply passes it along their backline and we are found our short. I think our biggest risk this week will be defending against scrums. We always line up 3 on each side of the scrum regardless of how many of the opposition lines up on one side. Souths are the best at set plays and will probably murder us off scrums.
Also Junior, you are expected to lead especially without RCG please take a leaf out of Greigs' book and just run the ball straight and hard, look to pass after you hit the line, and stop bludging behind the play the ball in defence and elad the defensive line for a change.
Thanks for reading, Mannah.
The defensive stats surprised me also to be honest.
Yep, defintely with you. Time to push the boundaries in the ruck - line speed, wrestle, agreesion.... There is no point being the 'most compliant team' if the referees are influenced by other things as they were last week against the Raiders.
Big game for Junz, for sure. We need him to take this one personally.
DEFENCE DEFENCE DEFENCE
The great Jack Gibson said that defence is the key to winning and the attack comes from that. (or something like that)
Jack might be turning in his grave over our current defence, Badger.
Good stuff NOS, what a hard week for a game preview. The stuff of Nightmares - Is quickly becoming our season, and quickly effecting a lot of aspects of our day to day enjoyment. I for one am not liking this year at all. This week has the potential to be devestating.
In a tribute to Indigenous round, and one of our foundation emblems.
The emblem last worn in our 1978 season, where that year we defeated the South Sydney Rabbitoes twice.
Round 10 at Cumberland Oval Eels 16 - Rabbits 7 and
Round 21 at Redfern Oval Eels 50 - Rabbits 10
This week Im going to hold on by the fingertips and in the words of some great ancestor.
Dont Stop Dreaming Just Because You Had A Nightmare.
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