Eels Blogs

Both teams are coming off their biggest wins of the season, in terms of margins, over demoralized opponents.

The Eels are looking for back to back wins to build momentum and secure their third straight win over the Cowboys for the first time in 11 years. A win would also be their fourth straight win at TIO, continuing their lucrative multimillion partnership with the NT Government.

Meanwhile, after years of being in the doldrums, the Cowboys are starting to believe in themselves, and shooting for three straight wins, for only the third time in five years, since 2017; the last time they made the finals and were competitive. They will look to make a statement. It's been three years since they beat a team of any note.

Teams

Saturday, 7.35 pm, TIO Stadium, Darwin. Under referee Todd Smith we have won 2/2 (including the walloped the Saints 48-14 in round 4 this year), whilst the Cowboys have 0/1 (a loss v Warriors, 25-24 in round 5).

Eels:

1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Hayze Perham 3. Will Penisini 4. Bert Brown 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Jakob Arthur 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Nathan Brown Bench: 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Bryce Cartwright. Reserves: 18. Wiremu Greig 19. Mitch Rein 20. Tom Opacic 21. Ky Rodwell 22. Solomone Naiduki 23. Elie El Zakhem 24. Luca Moretti

Coach: Brad J-Love Arthur

Cowboys:

1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Peta Hiku 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Coen Hess 11. Heilum Luki 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Jason Taumalolo Bench: 14. Jake Granville 15. Tom Gilbert 16. Reuben Cotter 17. Griffin Neame Reserves: 18. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 19. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 20. Connelly Lemuelu 21. Ben Condon 22. Emry Pere 23. Brendan Elliot 24. Ben Hampton 

Coach: Todd 'Laser Eyes' Payton has yet to taste a win against his senior maestro.

For the Eels, our Jakob largely did his job last week against a diabolical Knights team. Although he wasn't the star of the show, he was blessed with invisible superpowers at times, though it's probably unfair to make comparisons with Kevin Bacon's Hollow Man. Let's hope the young stallion adds to his winning tally that now stands at 4 from 10 (40%); with interest.

The Cowboys have been a surprise packet this year. Their spine has been in fair form this year. Townsend is like having another "coach" on the field, as noted by head coach Todd Payton. 

Drinkwater was on fire last week for the Cow's biggest win of the year against the Titans 30-4 in Townsville, with a try, try assist, and linebreak. Dearden and Robson provide a bit of spark and are capable of busting the line. Holmes has been good for them this year as well. Their edge backrowers Luki and Nanai both scored last week and shined, and will need to be contained by us - as well as the multi-millionaire Taumalolo, who seems to be improving this year after being in the wilderness hibernating somewhat in years gone by. All things considered, they seem to have the makings of a good team. A good mix of youth and experience. 

TIO 

It's a community service, but would we still host a home game here if it weren't for the millions? Even Todd Payton admitted it was an "advantage" for his troops to play here, acclimatized to this kind of weather, than the Eels' real home ground at CommBank. We can expect 34 degrees, some clouds, and about 70% humidity or so.

Fortunately, the Eels have won 6 of 7 games (85.7%), with our only loss to the Cowboys five years ago. Speak of the devil.

5 of 7 have been deceided by between 6-10 points; close. So, that's the likely scenario, historically. A close Eels' win.

As good as we have been in Darwin anywhere else north of Brisbane, we've been dismal.

 
Stats

Here is a comparison of the yearly overall stats juxtaposed over last week's stats (in grey). What can you make of this gobbly goop?

Obviously, the attacking stats were up for both teams last week against poor defensive teams, and the defensive stats were also better than average for both teams after convincing wins. What was evident last week, was the Eels were looking to be far more disciplined from the get-go. In fact, for most of the first half against the Knights, and until they felt the lead was unassailable, the Eels were quite conservative. Errors and missed tackles were way down on the average, and offloads were also slightly down on the average. Will we see a conservative Eels this week, and will we see more errors?

At first glance, this appears to be a matchup of the Eels' as the third-best attack against the Cowboys' second-best defence (quite a surprise compared to recent years).

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This is symbolized by the Eels' left-edge (J-Love, Lane, Bert Brown, Perham, Gutho overlap) that scores 49% of our tries (17/35) that is the second most potent (after the Panthers) up against the best-defensive right-edge (Townsend , Hiku , Nanai , Feldt; that is equal with the Panthers, and conceding only 5/17 tries all year at 29%). As the injury-struck Eels have a newly formed left edge that may also help the Cowboys reduce the damage. 

Bear in mind, Feldt on the right-wing has a habit of scoring tries against the Eels.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys' left-edge (Dearden, Taulagi, Holmes,Luki, Drinkwater overlap) that scores 58% (14/24) of their tries has a high likelihood to score against our right-edge (Moses, Papali’i, Penisini, Simonsson) that concedes the most tries for us at 57% (13/23). This begs the question: will Holmes score his first against the Eels?

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Though the Eels' right-edge has scored only 29% of the total tries (10/35) , they might have some opportunities to go over as the Cowboys concede more on their left edge at 41% (7/17) than anywhere else. It's also where the abysmal Titans scored last week. 

Lastly, both teams concede about the same amount of tries in the middle (Eels 17% 4/23; Cowboys, 29% 5/17)

 
ParraHex

Two weeks ago, our immortal Daz put his babushka dolls to work on Dale Finucane; it worked a charm. Last week it was Kayln's turn to pong it up. This week, it's last week's hero ...

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Bottom Line

As warm favourites, the Eels will be under a bit more pressure, against a team that surely won't be the roadkill the Knights were last week.

The Cowboys appear to be a team on the rise, but by how much? Are we seeing a revival of a more competitive, and finals-bound Cowboys for the first time in five years; 2017?

On Saturday night, if the Cowboys are not on, the Eels could run in comfortable winners. But the Cowboys should be up for this; they need this to prove something. It's Townsend's 200th,  and Darwin gives them a better chance than anywhere other than Townsville. 

This year, they have yet to beat a side higher than the Broncos (8th). They beat an off Titans (11th), and the Raiders twice (currently 15th). The last time they beat a team of significance and pedigree was three years ago when they beat the Roosters (15-12, in R7) in 2019 who went on to become premiers, and they also beat us in that year, 17-10, in Townsville.

In contrast, we have had fairly regular wins against high-pedigree top-six opposition over the last three years - including recently beating the high-flying, currently second-placed Storm (28-24, in R3 at AAMI). However, like us, they also lost to a bottom-dwelling team this year (we lost to the Tigers, they lost to the Dogs).

The Cowboys best chance of an upset is to be in the Eels' face all night long, hustling, bustling, hyper-intense and frustrating the Eels into self-implosion; into running sideways, inviting the opposition in, and bombing chances. A successful strategy used by many. Stay in the fight, and don't let the Eels get to a healthy half-time lead.

If the Eels' defence is decent enough, and they don't fumble too many opportunities, frustrating themselves, they should have too many points for the Cowboys. But, an upset is always possible with the Eels, who tend to switch on and off, especially when things do not go their way. 

The Cowboys should be up for this, so for the Eels to prevail, they had better be ready for an ambush.

PS: Unfortunately, our beloved Prof. Daz was unable to do this week's preview, due to prior base-jumping commitments and wing-suit training. Do not despair: He'll be back...in one piece; bigger and better than ever.