Eels Blogs

The Eels need to switch back on after a soul-wrenching loss to the Tigers and regain some semblance of a team that is not just making up the numbers. The Eels have only lost two straight or more on five occasions over the last 3 years, since 2019.

Meanwhile, the Knights are looking down the barrel of five straight losses, their worst in three years. They have not lost five straight since 2019; the year they last missed the finals. The promise they showed at the beginning of the season is slipping away.

Like the Tigers last week, they too will be desperate to win at home; in a place the Eels have struggled.

Teams

Sunday, 24th April 2021, 2pm, McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. The Eels have a better overall record under referee Ashleigh Klein (47.9% v 34.1%). We have won 3 of the last 6 (including in last year's quarter-finals win over the Knights at Browne Park, Rockhampton), whereas the Knights have lost the last 5 straight since 2000, but a little better at McDonald Jones winning last 2 of the last 3 (Manly, Broncos over 2019-2020).

Eels

1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Hayze Perham 3. Will Penisini 4. Tom Opacic 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Nathan Brown

Bench: 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Jakob Arthur. 
Reserves: 18. Bryce Cartwright 19. Mitch Rein 20. Wiremu Greig 21. Ky Rodwell 22. Samuel Loizou 23. Elie El Zakhem 24. Zac Cini

Outs: Mitch Rein, Marata Niukore who is a big out is as he gave us some power running straight and hard and shored up the defence on the right edge. Ins: Junior Paulo is a big one. Jakob Arthur the club's fitness guru, one to rival Richard Simmons, is also a big in. However, Jakob only has won 3 of 9 games he's played in (33.3%). Arthur's strategical use of his young colt is unclear, and I can't but help scratch my head. Again. Let's also hope Perham avoids the Eels' wingers' curse. Someone is hexing us.

Knights

1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Edrick Lee 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Enari Tuala 6. Jake Clifford 7. Adam Clune 8. David Klemmer 9. Chris Randall 10. Daniel Saifiti 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Brodie Jones 13. Kurt Mann

Bench: 14. Phoenix Crossland 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Leo Thompson 17. Sauaso Sue
Reserves: 18. Simi Sasagi 19. Pasami Saulo 20. Tex Hoy 21. Hymel Hunt 22. Jack Johns 23. Dylan Lucas 24. Jaron Purcell

Outs: Simi Sasagi. Ins: Adam Clune which should give them better direction from last week.

Notably, there is almost 1000 NRL games (994) between six in the Knights' team: Frizell (202), Dane Gagai (232), Klemmer (178), Mann (155), David Saifiti (123), and Jacob Saifti (104). 

There are some strike weapons out wide for the Knights, such as Ponga, Best, Tuala, and Gagai in particular.  A few of them are prolific try-scorers against the Eels, and the way the Eels are defending, we can expect a generous trickly of tries out wide. 

Recent winning form: At McDonald and The Last 4

The Eels have won the last four straight against the hapless Knights, and the last two straight at McDonald Stadium. 

We have never won three straight at McDonald Jones in over thirty-five years (since its inception, 1988). Can we do it for the first time?

In fact, the Eels have won 4 of the last 6 at McDonald Jones, despite having a poor overall history here; and a 34.5% win ratio (10/29 wins).

So, the Eels' good form from 2019 has changed the course of the last 12 years that have not been kind for the Eels against the Knights.

Hence, O'Brien is yet to win against the Eels.

Interestingly, 3 of the last 4 games were decided by 8 points or less as was 11 of the last 17 over the last twelve years.

Stats: Season v Last Week

Last week, both the Knights and the Eels, cracked when the game was on the line in the dying moments or minutes. The Eels lost an opportunity to win their fourth straight. It's been almost a year since they won more than three straight (back in round 10, 2021), so there has been a struggle for a consistent winning run. Let's see what the stats tell us about last week.

In deciphering these stats, what do you see? 

For one, it seems to show if the Eels show up they will have more points than the Knights.

And, notably, most of the Eels' stats in last week's loss against the Tiger's were on par with our season average.

However, there were four key outlier stats that paint a picture in that loss. For one, errors were way up by almost 60% (15 last week to a 9.5 season average). Two, this helped completions along to their worst of the season at 69% (well down on the 80.3% season average that is 2nd best in the NRL). Thirdly, though missed tackles were on par with our season average (third worst in the NRL), ineffective tackles were way up by 60%  (28 last week to a 17.5 season average). So, it's understandable the Eels defence was more fragile than usual. Additionally, Moses' conversion rate fell dramatically to 50% (from a 81.8% season average). Moses, despite trying hard, and being one of the Eels' best this year, failed in the so-called "clutch" moments; and not for the first time. Hence, tries and points scored were down on the season average which ultimately was the difference.

By my calculations, this was partially due to the Tigers' hustle, energy, and intensity, which added enough pressure to an Eels team that was expected to roll the Tigers on our special 75th anniversary in front of a huge home crowd and our Hall Of Famers; then imploded. Not quite into the Hall Of Shamers, but damn close.

Last week also continues the Eels' poor win ratio when behind a half-time now dropping to 22.6% since 2019. This had me nervous at half-time last week.

In the last twenty years, the Eels have never come from behind to beat the Knights when behind by more than a converted try (6 points). So, the half-time score may end up being a preview of the result. However, we have come back from small deficits against the Knights - 3 times in the last 20 years - when behind 6-12 (2009), (2016) 10-12, (2016) 10-14) all at this ground. Nonetheless, the half-time score could be an early preview of the winner.

For the Knights last week, Ponga was everywhere. Scoring tries, creating tries, saving tries, breaking the line, creating linebreaks. It was his best performance in a while. Hence, much of the Knights' attacking stats were up above their season average: offloads, linebreaks, tackle busts, and so on. However, like the Eels' they made too many errors and missed tackles - both way up on their season average.

This week's Parrahex

Last week, Professor Daz, put a hex on Dale Finucane. And we know what happened soon after. Finucane is even out this week (along with Daz). It is not clear whether this involves a collection of Daz's finely crafted babooshka-like voodoo dolls or some other battery-operated mystical toys, but, this week there is a new target. Someone the Eels need to stop because if it's close he is the game-breaker.

 Bottom Line

The Knights will be desperate, and boosted by Ponga's commitment to the Knights long-term, notwithstanding any bizarre clauses - and traditionally the Eels have struggled here and against the Knights.

So, to avoid last week's ambush the Eels to win they need to lift their intensity, and keep their heads on both with and without the ball. If they do that, they should win, providing Ponga is not left to run amok.

The Tigers' showed once again the Eels' can crack when hustled, and up against high intensity in their faces. The concern is the Eels look flustered at times, incohesive (perhaps also due to injuries), fragile defensively, especially on their own goal line. Mentally they were off their game, and also need to be more patient.The good news is they still almost won, despite an abundance of self-sabotage.

Time will tell how significant a symptom of deeper woes is that loss, and how deeply etched it is into the psyche of the team, but the Tigers have pulled off major upsets before. Once or twice every blue moon. In round one of 2018 the Tigers upset the Roosters, eventual premiers, 10-8, winning in the dying minutes. Then, in the next round the Tigers beat the Storm, the eventual runner-up, 10-8, also in the dying minutes. And then in round five, the Tigers beat the Storm again; this time 11-10 via a Marshall field goal in the 73rd minute.

In a nutshell, despite all the talent we possess, in five from six games, other than the second half of the Saints game (round 4) the Eels have managed to find ways to invite the enemy back into the game, and have lacked the knockout killer instinct.

There are mental issues to address.

This spills over into a fragility in defence we saw in the Tigers' game, and throughout the year, which is a concern. About 90% of all premierships victors are top-four defences. Only once in the game's history has such a worst defensive rank as ours (10th) achieved glory - back when the 2005 Tigers won (also the 10th worst defence). The only other team outside the top 7 defence was the Knights of 2001. Speak of the devil. 

The million-dollar question for this week is: which Eels or Knights team will show up?