Eels Blogs

Heading for a chilly night in Canberra, it is distinctly not cool that the Eels have won just ONCE this century against the Raiders in Canberra.

That was 15 years ago, when the Eels won 18-12 in R17 in 2006. John Morris wore the Eels’ #7 jumper back then, and was just sacked as Sharks coach, so who knows what that bodes?

Both teams are coming off disappointing R5 losses, the Raiders to Penrith and the Eels to Dragons. Last week the Panthers coach (Ivan The Terrible Cleary) singled out the Raiders’ spoiling tactics as leading to an ugly game with poor ruck speed, and last week the Dragons conceded 11 six-again rulings to spoil and stifle the Eels’ attack into rushed and poorly executed plays. The Raiders are spoilers, and the Eels played poorly against spoiling tactics last week. So, it seems the question this week is whether the Eels will have figured out during the week how to counteract the impending spoiling tactics by Canberra (and at a somewhat hoodoo venue for the Eels anyway). Welcome to Round 6. 

NOTE: these previews are co-authored, by Prof Daz and HOE (The Odd Couple). Prof Daz is the lead author (and a proven genius) for the even rounds (like this one) and HOE the lead author for odd rounds (next week). 

Though the Eels have won the last two against the Raiders, the more pertinent stat is the Eels' record at Canberra's House Of Horrors. It's as abysmal as Canberra can be.

Teams
Saturday 17 April, GIO Stadium, Canberra, 7:35pm (AEDT): Referee: Ben Cummins.

Raiders, they have the clap: 1. Caleb Aekins 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Curtis Scott 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. George Williams 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Iosia Soliola 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Joseph Tapine 14. Tom Starling 15. Ryan Sutton 16. Siliva Havili 17. Emre Guler.
Head coach: Whiney Wicky Stuart

Eels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Tom Opacic 4. Marata Niukore 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Will Smith 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo (knock, knock) 11. Shaun Lane 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown 14. Oregon Kaufusi 15. Isaiah Papali’i 16. Keegan Hipgrave 17. Bryce Cartwright.
Head coach: Brad 'The Rock' Arthur

Notes: The Raiders’ starting fullback remains out (Nicoll-Klokstad, which is probably very fortunate for the Eels looking at the above stats), Ryan James has been rested, but Curtis Scott is back at centre.

For the Eels, Dylan Brown was suspended for one week (replaced by Will Smith), Matterson coming back to second row (could be a late scratching again?) means Papali’i reverts to the bench, with Cartwright retaining his bench spot (somehow), and Hipgrave coming back onto the bench.

Observations from Last Week

Eels (vs Dragons):       49% possession, 72% completion rate,  5 line breaks, 35 tackle breaks, 15 offloads, 21 missed tackles, 14 errors.
Raiders (vs Panthers): 47% possession, 87% completion rate, 3 line breaks,  28 tackle breaks, 14 offloads, 37 missed tackles, 13 errors.

The Eels’ style is said to be the power game, but the Dragons beat the Eels at their own game in the first half. At half time, the Dragons were leading on both the scoreboard (18-0) and in all three stats the Eels have been winning this year: all-run meters, post-contact meters, and offloads. However, by game’s end, the Eels ended up leading in all three stats. So, what happened?

Eels v Dragons: Eels dissappointing.

The ref cannot remain out of this story but is not the whole story and maybe not even the main story. Yes, the Dragons were physical, outmuscled the Eels, and had great line speed but also appeared to get off their line too early. However, the Dragons completed 19/20 in the first half while the Eels completed 11/19. Moreover, the Eels received five 6-again calls to the Dragons’ two 6-again calls in the first half. The stats tell us the Eels had their opportunities in that first half to do something with those five 6-again sets.

What did the Eels do? On almost every set, the Eels ran one-out, only ever stringing together passes if they made it past their own 40-meter line. Once over the 40-meter line, the Eels tended to go from side-to-side, also known as sideways, ending a few raids with wayward passes or going over the sideline.

The Eels had poor line speed and failed to build any pressure in the first half, even though they were piggybacked up the field five times, and squandered opportunities.

The second half started in a blaze of 6-again calls, with the Dragons conceding four in a row to see Tariq Sims sin-binned. One must wonder if the refs got into the sheds and spoke about the Dragons’ amazing line speed and decided to crack down on it? Papali’i scored soon after the Eels went to 13 on 12, and for the rest of the second half the 6-again calls were even at 2-2.

The other story of the second half, then, is that while the Dragons committed a few errors they were otherwise content to consistently spread the ball when rucking it out from their own half, making reliable meters and then kicking the ball deep into Eels’ territory. Opacic conceded 2-points in a ruck infringement, and Clune ran between Cartwright and Moses to hand an obviously forward pass to Dufty to score.

So, what did the Eels do?

The Eels persisted all game with safety-first football out of their own end. Such play is dull, but dull can be effective. More worrisome for the Eels, such play can be predictable, and can also devolve too fool hardy, if dull play in your own half becomes play dumb, rushed, and impatient play once near or over half-way. Against the Dragons we saw both. Sometimes the play was just dumb: going sideways when the Dragons were keeping their width all game? Lane running the wrong line on the line (again) so Gutho had to do the lie-down-puppy thing? Moses’ long ball to Sivo (or that guy in the stands behind Sivo), when through the hands was needed? Sometimes the idea was right: Cartwright’s kick to Fergo could have led to a try; Lane’s kick through could have won a line drop-out; Mahoney’s scoot from the scrum was designed to drag the Dragons to the blind side and create overlaps on the open side in the Dragons quarter; Fergo’s scoot down the sideline could have similarly dragged defenders over to create room on the open side; and Gutho’s try should have been a try. But none were to be, and all due to poor execution. Cartwright’s kick did not go deep, Lane’s kick went too deep, Mahoney dropped the ball, Fergo went over the touch line (again), and Paulo obstructed a defender.

The Eels thus spent most of the game completely failing to counter the spoiling tactics of the Dragons. And when their opportunities arose, the Eels fluffed them. We can talk about the refs, but the fact remains, the Eels were gifted 11 6-again restarts to 4, spent 10 minutes of the second half playing 13 on 12, and in that second half, with 10 minutes to go, had already had 35 tackles in the Dragons half (they had 9 in ours and scored twice). That should be enough to manufacture more points than one try when a player up, and one try at the death with the game done.

The Eels did whatever they could to ensure they squandered as many opportunities as they could, providing some helter-skelter, Benny Hill moments.

Even Brad Arthur couldn't explain it. At least he's stopped worrying whether the Eels are Arthur or Martha.

This was in stark contrast to last week, when he had confidence in the Eels' maturity to get the job done.

Raiders v Panthers: Raiders tried hard

We could talk about last week's Raiders game but who cares about the Raiders? Ever since Whiney Sticky betrayed the Eels to slink off to the Canberra bubble, the Raiders suck. True story.

The Raiders competed against Penrith, but undid themselves with untimely errors, and an inability to keep slugging it out against a very disciplined and creative Penrith side, who thoroughly deserve their premiership favourites tag.

If anything is to be said about the Raiders, it is about the Eels’ horrific record in Canberra.

A 3-point plan to beat the Eels …?

It is possibly too early to beat the drums of despair, but are there early warning signs about a template for beating the Eels? The Eels have admittedly made a fair start to the season, at 4-1. The Eels were expected to beat the Tigers and Broncos and did so. There was a question mark (after 2020) whether the Eels could defeat teams slated for the Top 8, but the Eels defeated the Storm and the Sharks (who may be on the slide?). Nor have the Eels been without misfortune, losing their starting centres (replaced with a backrower and a journeyman) and a starting backrower to week’s out with concussion.

But Eels fans are notorious for enduring decades of under-performance, so an early loss to a team they were predicted to account for has rattled the cage of doubt.

The main issue to be addressed is whether the Eels have the capacity to absorb and counter a team that is prepared to play an up-tempo defence, a through-the-middle-first attack, kicking deep into the corners, chasing hard, minimizing errors, and completing at a high percentage. Put differently, can the Eels match a team playing like the Eels?

The Dragons played the power game the Eels are renowned for playing, and the Eels did not like playing a team like themselves. More specifically, we wonder if there is a 3-point plan to beat the Eels?

1 Defend aggressively, bustling with good line speed, meeting the Eels at the advantage line, and possibly frustrating the Eels into thinking that rolling through the middle will not work. This aggressive defence can be either well timed with lightning-fast line speed (think the Sharks, first 20 minutes), or the deliberate tempting of the ref to sin bin you for repeated infringements (Dragons).

Either way, it seems one of two things will happen. One, the Eels’ offloads will dry up, limiting their meters off second phase play. Paulo’s run meters and offloads were down from his average in the Dragons game, and the impression was given that the Dragons’ spoiling tactics had disrupted the Eels’ patterns out of our own end: Fergo/Sivo runs, followed by RCG or Paulo following each other, and then NBrown. Alternatively, the Eels’ spine players will start to play too laterally, sometimes by long passes when through-the-hands is needed, and sometimes by running sideways. Note an important point here. We cannot simply blame the refs if the Dragons’ line speed or any other team’s line speed is too fast. The Dragons tempted fate by pushing the line speed limits, and early in the second half got pinged and went down a player. But all teams must play to the whistle. Are we expecting the Eels to rely on the refs, or should we expect the Eels to have some tricks up their own sleeve? What should those tricks be, aside from waiting to the end of the game to ‘Complain like Ricky’?

2 Play direct through the middle, running hard and straight, in concentrated raids, aiming to compress the Eels defence and then swing the ball out wide, where our edge defenders are still prone to jamming in and being beaten on the outside. Plenty of teams (e.g. the Storm are masters of it) have done this. Matt Elliot (ironically an assistant to Hook) has been going on about this a few times when he presented his technical analysis in the NRL's "Game Plan".

In the Dragons' first try they attacked the middle with crash play after crash play before swinging it out wide with Duffy chiming in, and fast hands and bodies in motion taking advantage of the overlap,  causing the Eels' edge to be flat-footed and unable to deal with the onslaught. The Eels cover and Gutho couldn't get there in time.

Niukore was beaten by Bird in a classic (centres) hole-run, but overall has defended well, but watching the Eels consistently face overlaps (which they seem incapable of creating themselves …) is troubling. It does seem the Eels load up in the middle and can be left vulnerable to quick lateral shifts and raids on the edges. Our edges often make errors in judgement, so fast hands, with bodies in motion and a fullback creating the overlap could reap rewards.

Also, our high-octane middle-defence can sometimes come unglued. Maybe due to fatigue? There have been 1-2 instances in a few games (Storm, Sharks and Dragons) where the Eels have been breached behind the ruck, in the space between Mahoney and Paulo or Brown. This is probably why there has been so much discussion about the size of the Eels bench (Kaufusi is our one legitimate prop) and Brad Arthur’s rotation practices (Smith or Stone playing low minutes).

3 Test the Eels’ capacity for adventurous, well-executed play. Watch the Eels in their own half. They rarely make the ball do any work. There are many one-out runs, often without any decoy runners to put any doubt in the opposition mind, and strong defensive units target our runners for gang tackles.

Teams like Souths, Storm and Roosters, and even the Titans, have mastered shifts to the edges in their own 30-meter zone to get around quality kick chase patterns. The Dragons did it all second half and constantly relieved the attacking pressure the Eels applied, escaping their own end.

By contrast, the Eels can get stuck in their own conservative preferences and bogged down in their own territory. Against both the Dragons and Tigers, for different reasons, the Eels have made errors and rushed the play when trying to be more adventurous. The question remains whether, if the Eels are pressured into more adventurous play - if points are needed or ground through the middle has dried up - they can sustain it without high error counts (pushed passes, dropped balls, being run over the sideline)?

Note, unlike Penrith or Roosters who seem to forever have their line set to attack, the Eels use settler plays to set their attack even after line breaks. Playing with the settler plays seems to give the opposition a chance to regain composure. But playing without the settler plays often sees the Eels ‘play frantic’ (cue Benny Hill music). What can the Eels do to push their opportunities with more panache?
Mitchell Moses: The Eels' playmaker struggled to get the team over the line and countering the Dragons assault. Moses (525) is closing in on Steve Ella (544) to move into third on the Eels most points list. Moses has registered 0 tries, 0 linebreaks, 2 try assists (the equal of Will Smith, whilst Mahoney has 4 to lead the Eels) in 5 rounds to date (Fox stats). 

The Bottom Line

The bottom line in Round 6 is three-fold.

One, we get to see if the Eels can demonstrate an ability to counter this kind of 3-point plan? Can the Eels spoil the spoiler plans of a sufficiently dedicated opposition? Because the Raiders will try to ‘spoil’, no doubt.

Two, we know the Raiders will play a spoiling game because they rank lower than the Eels in almost every statistical category tracked by NRL Stats.

Three, the Eels are currently on somewhat of a streak. In the odd-numbered rounds, the Eels have fallen behind on the scoreboard early: 0-16 to the Broncos (R1), 0-6 to the Sharks (R3), and 0-18 to the Dragons (R5). In the even-numbered rounds, the Eels have led from the front and never been behind on the scoreboard, despite the scores getting close at stages: 16-12 over the Storm (R2), 36-22 over the Tigers (R4).

Thus, all the evidence points to Eels fans having cause to worry when HOE is the lead author of these previews, because he writes the odd-numbered rounds and obviously jinxes our poor Eels. By contrast, even-numbered rounds have Prof Daz as the lead author, and according to the evidence from the Science of Numerology, the Eels should take an early lead against the Raiders (R6), let them get close maybe, but eventually win.

Or as Eminem once kinda-not-really said, “will the real Eels please stand up, please stand up, please stand up?”

 #bringbackthebiff #forTommy