We face three straight losses and far worse in the weeks ahead after some demoralizing, back-to-back losses.
It made all the tough talk about the character-hardening, longest-off-season-in-years from early in the season - and redemption of the last two seasons - seem light years away. Perhaps, we were all given false hope, a superficial paper plaster over of our usual "off" and "on" nature, by the gritty performances of the first three rounds?
We were caught by surprise as much as Chuck Nolan was when his plane in a free-falling collision towards the abyss in Cast Away. There is no Arthurian "chasing the collision", here. We were the Raiders' car-crash dummy. Unfortunately, as is the default condition: our soft underbelly returns. The on and off switch.
Chuck (Tom Hanks), of course, is the central character in Cast Away who finds himself marooned on an island with Wilson keeping him sane with companionship and from falling into an irreversible inner darkness. It's a grittier movie than we have been in recent weeks, but like us, he fights for sanity and survival.
Cast Away's Chuck Nolan (Tom Hanks) fights to stay alive and from falling into an inner abyss.
At the onset of round six, after the 41-8 GIO Massacre last Sunday, sees the Eels slump to fourteenth on the ladder about to face the current best attacking team. Dead last is our NSW Cup team and the Women’s Telstra Cup team. Both of them hold the worst defences and worst differentials of all clubs.
It’s five a piece between the Eels and Cowboys over the last ten games, but the Cowboys are the best-attacking team in the competition and would be full of confidence meeting the Eels with the 12th-best attack and defence. However, the Cowboys leak points for fun; even more than us on average, hitherto.
Round Six Teams
Eels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Morgan Harper 5. Sean Russell 6. Daejarn Asi 7. Dylan Brown 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Joey Lussick 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. J’maine Hopgood 14. Luca Moretti 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Joe Ofahengaue 17. Kelma Tuilagi 18. Ofahiki Ogden 19. Blaize Talagi 20. Wiremu Greig 21. Makahesi Makatoa 22. Maika Sivo
Cowboys:1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Tomas Chester 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Jake Granville 15. Griffin Neame 16. Sam McIntyre 17. Jack Gosiewski 18. Jake Clifford 19. Thomas Mikaele 20. Semi Valemei 21. Jamal Shibasaki 22. Viliami Vailea
Notes: For the Eels, Cartwright is a big in, back from a rib injury. Sivo, Greig and Talagi have has been dropped. Harper comes in for Sivo at centre and Simonsson shifts to the wing. Daejarn Asi replaces Talagi at five-eighth. For the Cowboys, Laybutt is out for the season (ACL) with Tom Chester replacing him.
Scott Drinkwater plays his 100th NRL game.
Brad Arthur persists with Dylan Brown at half-back. Brown is the most inexperienced half-back in the NRL with four games (at 25% win rate, 1 from 4) the least of any half-backs this week or on the bye (Schneider).
Losing more than Wilson
Wilson was Chuck's companion and emotional life support.
Missing Moses, Our Wilson, it seems Brown is trying to do too much. Be a running six, a central attacking speedy ball-runner trying to break the line, an organising seven, directing and constantly reading play a cover defender, our go-to-man for last tackle options and for the bulk of kicking. If Arthur was to reward him for his efforts, it would be to spread some of these duties to a more experienced half-back by trade. The only silver lining is, it will probably make him a better player.
Dylan is missing his Wilson and has had the world on his shoulders | Getty
Surely, the utter breakdown and implosion of our systems into a softer jelly-spined goo are not that dependent on one or two missing individuals in Moses and Cartwright? Or, maybe, they are now, setting off a self-sabotaging domino-like chain reaction.
After all, since 2019, with Moses we have won 62.6% (72/115) and without Moses we have lost 62.5% (only won 6/16); and it’s getting worse.
It would be tempting to blame it all on losing Moses. Losing Wilson. Losing our life-support. Our General. And the key to cohesiveness in our structures and another point of attack with his blazing acceleration lacking elsewhere in the back five, coupled with all the one-percenters he does off the ball and in cover. All of which form the key to building pressure and creating opportunities for our potent unstructured game which has gone amiss since his absence. Nathan Cleary summed up the "pressure point" well recently and what he does as a half-back.
It's the ability to play unstructured within the structures...you're constantly looking up and counting numbers... You do need to have some structure, to be able to break down NRL defences that are so good now. You have to be able to play inside that structure, but also outside it. When you think about the biggest games you play in, a lot of the tries scored are not structured nice set plays. They're coming from momentum and quick play the balls, and you find a way to get over the line.
Nathan Cleary
That sums up everything we aren't doing and the load on Dylan's shoulders. Poor structures, poor fundamentals, no pressure, poor unstructured attack. Our defensive resolve has gone. Our confidence is shot to pieces. Without Moses, we've quickly crumbled into a rudderless rubble. Utter implosion in a vicious cycle. But Wilson is more than about one man.
Another Eels error | Getty
Errors, fumbles, passing into the sideline specials, drop passes in the opposition’s red zone and near our line, iced by the occasional hospital passes from a panicked Lussick. We made 23 errors over the last two weeks almost always in the opposition red zone spilling points away for free or closer to our line gifting points. Partly due to being unable to handle the pressure, partly because the opposition wanted the game more, and partly because we're on a self-sabotaging, self-goal-a-thon.
Our kick chase is often poor. Our often sluggish line speed is the third-slowest in the competition. We concede the second-most line breaks with only the Titans being worse.
Chuck can't bring himself to open the packages. He needs to hold onto hope.
What was really in those marooned Fed-ex packages Chuck (above) didn’t open? A plethora of Titanic DVDs for us laced in irony because they just don't work no matter how "soft" you call them.
Like us at Commbank recently, even when Chuck gets back home, he can't escape the life-changing gravity of Wilson's orb of influence.
At Commbank: The Wilson Factor
The Eels have won nine of the last twelve games at Commbank, since early 2003 (R4).
All of those three of those losses occured when Moses Wilson was not halfback: halfback was either Dylan Brown or Asi.
Essentially, when Moses was halfback, we won. When he was not, we lost every game except for one. That game was back in R16, 2023 when we ran Asi at seven and Matto at six up against a Manly outfit missing Turbo, Jurbo, and DCE and running Jakob Arthur at seven and Schuster at six. A fairer contest.
Fortunately, unlike Kelly (Helen Hunt) who pragmatically and sensibly moves on from Chuck thinking he's gone onto the next life, most Eels fans won't desert the team even when they fear they're next to dead and buried.
There is one more theme to explore. After Chuck is found and saved to get off the island, he returns back home to normality and civilization. But, now is more lost than ever before. One the island, his purpose was clear: to survive. Now, his purpose is more nebulous and unclear than ever before. He faces a rebirth of sorts. Life-rebuilding. And so may we in the not-too-distant future.
The forewarning of a rebuild?
If we compare the cycles under the Arthur epoch over the last decade - specifically of the teams' ladder position at R5 versus the season (refer above) coupled with the cycles of R5 points' differentials (refer below) - it suggests we may be a downhill trajectory to match the eye-test.
What would you put that down to: being without Wilson Moses, something more fundamentally missing or both?
Back in 2019, we say the onset of the best four-year finals-bound cycles since the Brian Smith era, there was a significant turnover of cattle. This was amidst Bernie Gurr leaving at the end of 2019 and handing the CEO baton to Sarantinos.
Here, a new cycle began. A rebirth or rebuild that was the foundation of the next five year cycle- up to what we see now.
Back at the beginning, in that two-year 2019-2020 window in came: Dylan Brown (debuted in 2019), Junior Paulo (returned from Canberra in 2019-now), Reagan Campbell-Gillard (2020-now), Shaun Lane (2019-now), Blake Ferguson, (2019-2021), Waqa Blake (2019-2023), and Maiko Sivo (2019-now) to compliment the likes of Gutherson (2016-now), Moses (2017-now), Nathan Brown (2017-2022), and Reed Mahoney (debuted 2018-2022). Out went: Corey Norman, Jarryd Hayne, Beven French, Kenny Edwards (all left in 2018), Beau Scott (lasted 2 games in 2018) and a little later Manu Ma'u (left in 2019). Following that, key new recruits and juniors were strewed over the team over the next few years: Will Penisini (2021-now), Bryce Cartwright (2021-now), J'maine Hopgood (2023-now), and Isaiah Papali'i (2021-2022).
However, now we face ageing issues with key cogs in our squad.
Reagan Campbell-Gillard is almost 31, and many key players are in or around that 30 age bracket. Matto (29.5), Lane (29.5), Gutherson (29.5) and Sivo (30.5) - all of whom appears to be showing signs of wear and tear, and may have lost a slight edge off their younger years. Though they still have some mileage and juice left in their tanks, they appear closer to their ends than middle careers. Although Cartwright (29.5) is just about thirty he appears to be coming into a few more golden years after he has found his mojo becoming increasingly critical playing close to career-best footy. Nevertheless, as rugby league is a game of inches, fractions of a second matter.
And we saw how the young, hungry lions in the Tigers and Raiders beat us to the punch in many critical moments in the middle and the edges, leaving us for dust. We may be losing the edge to our Wilsons.
Father time comes knocking for us all. He's coming to our doorstep soon enough. And we might get caught out in the next year or so.
We have now hit that "five year" cycle from 2019 where we rebuilt around a core of Gutherson, Moses, and Reed before then. So, when will we need to rebuild around a core again?
Historically, the notion of a "five-year" cycle isn't pie in the sky throw away gesture. In the entire history of our game from 1908, every coach has taken five or less years in a single tenure to win a grand final - except for two coaches. Those two being, Folkes in his seventh season with the Dogs in 2004 (which included losing a season to salary cap dramas) and Shane Flangan in five years and seven weeks with the Sharks in 2016. It also suggests we may need to move on from Arthur, now in his eleventh straight season with us, and hear a new voice with new ideas.
It also may be an opportunity, in the not-too-distant future, to hand over the co-captaincy to the likes of Hopgood and Moses who are close to the action and entering their prime years. What do you think?
Is it time to plan for some graceful ageing of some of our elder statesmen? Is it time to start rebuilding around a core of the current squad such as the likes of Hopgood, Moses, Dylan, Penisini and any of the promising juniors that may make it?
It's a tricky process that is challenging to get right. Timing all the moving parts is challenging. But, if we sit complacently on our current troops staring at our navels, we may not find the quality of cattle we recruited in this five-year cycle or be able to fit them in as we have.
The Cowboys make a pact after last week's win over te Titans despite a frightful comeback from the Titans
Meanwhile, back on the island, against the high-flying Cowboys we desperately need a win or we're looking down the barrel into the abyss.
We've lost more than Moses. We've lost ourselves over the last two weeks.
We need to get back to basics and get our structures back on track, starting with our defence is on an icy, slippery slope. To reduce errors, do all one-percenters and fundamentals and win the loose balls. Win the inches with and without the ball. All of which will help create pressure to help get our defence and second-phase attack back on track. Like starving Chuck's possessed by a hungry beast in a do-or-die battle. Otherwise, we face another GIO-like massacre or worse. We just need to find a way to win: to find our inner Wilson.
Wilson! Wilson! Wilson!
Replies
Oh thank you so much, Mick. That's very kind. It's great to see you posting, mate. You should post more often.
Love your optimism, & you're right. If we all pull together, & defend like possessed madmen, we're in with a chance of upsetting the Cows.
But, I'm bearish on us right now, and expecting another heavy loss. Perhaps, even worse than last week.
Hopefully, you're right!
This game could see Brad Arthur break his 8th losing margin record with the eels .
Yep, Frankie in all likelihood we're looking at another heavy loss. That's my expectation. We tend to lose at Commbank without Moses, from early last year, unless we're playing a weakened team & spine. Hopefully, the Eels will show some backbone and even cause a mammoth upset.
Thanks Hoe, another good read. The amount of work you guys put in is huge. I wish the boys could put that much work in on the field.
At the end of the movie Cast Away, Chuck delivers the one package he didnt open on the island, to the lady on the farm and the movie ends a couple of moments later. Ive always wondered what was in that package. Anyone have any ideas, I always envisaged a Satelite Phone, fully charged and ready to go to save the day, but he didnt open it to find its potential and saving himself. I do wonder if BA is leaving some packages unopened like Sanders or Hands or by only signing 28 players for this year leaving 2 spots open.
It begs the question, is BA trying to save himself by saving our season. I say to the administrators. Give Mr Bennett a call now. Heres a number. that could help for Erectile Dysfunction 1300 78 99 78 and talk it over, after all our team is playing like a bunch of limp - well you get the drift.
Lol and thanks, Bluey. Too kind buddy. Hopefully, when you get a chance we'll see you posting your awesome blogs.
It's hard to know what goes through BA's dome. He's wily, stubborn as a mule & street smart though.
He gave 19yo Talagi a shot at six, despite spending the offseason training at fullback accepting all his defensive frailties as part of the learning experience.
Yet, doesn't afford Sanders, a specialist 19yo half by trade who won best and fairest in our Junior awards only a few months ago a go. And instead puts him behind Talagi and Asi in the halves. Really, both Sanders and Talagi looked shaky in the trials.
Exactly, mate! Hands has proven he can handle NRL level. Plus he used to be a goal-kicking halfback by trade. He's got untapped creative skills I reckon we aren't using. I think BA likes a meat and potatoes dummy half with fast service, an 80 minute tackling machine that doesn't overplay his hand, doesn't run too much nor do too many clever things. Reed said something along those lines as well.
Who knows with BA.
Blank out the out side noise ba
HOE, another sensational read, legend.
Haha love the Castaway & Wilson arc, an absolute classic.
Very interesting cyclical pattern you’ve shown, and while I struggle with the word ‘rebuild’, due to impatience, some fresh cattle, voices, leadership & energy across all facets of the club, might be a silver lining?
Since Round 19 of 2023, in 13 games, the Eels have won 5 & lost 8, scoring 243 points & conceding 382 at an average of 29 points conceded per week.
Only the Bulldogs (30), Tigers (30) & Titans (32) have conceded more points on average per week over this period.
Meaning, the Eels are currently riding a 13 game wave of being a bottom 4 defence, who are 1 point better off per week than the 2nd worst defences (Dogs, Tigers) and 3 points better off per week than the worst defence over this period (Titans).
If only our Mitch Moses mask better covered what lies beneath.
No doubt we’ll turn it around at some point, win some great games & provide some positive moments, just not convinced it’s this week.
Thank god for SuperCoach & my captain Val Holmes, who can numb the pain, somewhat.
Cowboys 48-14.
Thanks again for the huge effort, HOE. I’m sure the entire site appreciates it.
Haha SuperCoach & Val Holmes.
Knowing my luck this year with my team, he will get knocked out first tackle like Walsh was a few weeks ago.
Lost Tino, Walsh and Piakura same week....
Nice blog HOE
I reckon I've banged on about executing our kick chase , kick pressure and line speed a billion times on here the last decade , we have never done all three consistently well in that time , never well in the same game.
I find it incredibly frustrating at our lack of aptitude in that regard.When we talk about consistency this is a large part of why we aren't .
Those three indicators are the best barometer of a teams attitude on game day. It's quite easy to understand where we are on the ladder with our lack of execution at these effort areas.
We have a top 17 that if we add two quality players to we become very formidable, it's our pathways that need a rebuild.
Ive spoken on here for the last 4/5 years about a back up fullback for Gutho that could be brought into first grade on the wing serving an apprenticeship before taking over the custodian role .
The club has sat on its hands, your spine is where your development of junior pathways is by far the most important.
Its easier going to market for outside backs and forwards salary cap wise , if you can't develop a spine from within suited to first grade your cap will be soon bent out of shape narrowing your chance of a premiership window.
If we want to be the gold standard rugby league club, we need to identify the best coaching staff in the game, administrators, medical staff , sports psychologists, dieticians and strength and conditioners and pay the dollars to bring them to the club.
If the best won't come make sure you damn well get the second best and give them the resources to go one better.
Too often Parra seem to just get who they can .
If our board aren't actively trying to do these things what are they doing.
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