Rock Stars. That is who we were last week. In slaying the Dragons we were scintillating, especially Moses and Kenny Brown who continued their great form in the win over the Storm the week before.
We jump to third place on the ladder, the highest since mid last year, round 15. We also jump to equal third premiership favourite with Sportsbet, along with the Roosters, after the Storm and undefeated Panthers in first place, obviously. And this Saturday night, we also shoot for three straight wins for the first time since round 15, 2021, and a record-breaking seven straight wins against the Titans.
The last time we met the Titans, in round 1, feels like a lifetime ago. And they have not been able to string two wins together for 11 weeks of footy, since round 20 last year. And based on last week's performance against the Tigers, it's clear why.
Isaac John, former Panthers' and Kiwi half or five-eighth, sees the Titans akin to a kid in water, floating or drowning to its level, and sometimes stooping to the bottom of the barrel, as was the case last week. On a positive note the Titans won, and they could not play much worse. And surely, they will improve on that this week?
Teams
Saturday, 7.35pm, Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast. Under referee Peter Gough we have only won 3 from 10 (26.7% overall ratio). But, we beat the Titans 36-12 the last time we played under him at CBUS in R22, 2019. And also, the Titans are even worse winning 2 from 10 (with an 18.2% overall ratio).
Titans:
1. Jamayne Isaako 2.Corey Thompson 3. Phillip Sami 4. Patrick Herbert 5. Greg Marzhew 6. AJ Brimson 7. Toby Sexton 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Erin Clark 10. Isaac Liu 11. David Fifita Banner (aka the Hulk) 12. Beau Fermor 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (c)
Bench: 14. Oscar Smith 15. Jarrod Wallace 16. Jaimin Jolliffe 17. Kevin Proctor
Reserves: 18. Paul Turner 19. Sam McIntyre 20. Sam Lisone 21. Herman Ese’ese 22. Sosefo Fifita 23. Tony Francis 24. Jacob Allick
Changes: Brian Kelly, Sam Lisone, Sam McIntyre out. Beau Fermor, Phillip Sami, Isaac Liu in.
Eels:
1. Clinton Gutherson (c) 2. Waqa Blake 3. Will Penisini 4. Tom Opacic 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan ‘Kenny’ Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo (c) 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Nathan Brown
Bench: 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Mitch Rein
Reserves: 18. Bryce Cartwright 19. Wiremu Greig 20. Hayze Perham 21. Samuel Loizou 22. Jakob Arthur 23. Marata Niukore 24. Solomone Naiduki
Changes: The wizard, Bryce Cartwright, Wiremu Greig, Mr 3-point turning Mack Truck out. Shaun Lane, Mitch Rein in.
Does his demotion have anything to do with the soft goal-line defence last week (along with Reed)? It isn't because of this once-in-a-lifetime flick pass.
Reed has given good service out of dummy half, and has a voracious appetite for chasing many other things besides free Chinese food, fortune cookies, a mountain of dosh and missed tackles - like a few meat pies and putting his body on the line. But, is anything the matter with Reed in 2022?
Furthermore, Moses has been anything but "streaky" with his goal-kicking either.
Simmonson plays his 50th NRL and 5th for the Eels. He has scored 16 tries overall, but only 1 try from 5 games against the Titans (R1, 2019) and none in the Eels' colours. Is this the week he scores, or passes, or doesn't come in off the right wing? On our other Wing, Waqa is on a try-scoring feast.
Waqa Blake has scored 9 tries in the last 10 games for the Eels. Waqa and Philip Sami (below) are equal third-highest tryscorer with 4 tries a piece for the year.
Sami did the Gutherino all over The King when he scored in round 1 on our right-edge corner, where else, out-maneuvering Simonsson. And true to form all but a minute after the half-time break. But, who will do it this week? The King said he's penned this week in.
Eels On A Roll
If Eels win this week it will equal Arthur's best run against any team during his 9-year plus tenure (equal with the Tigers' 7 straight wins). It also extends the Eels' best ever run against the Titans.
It will also be the first time the Eels have had the overall advantage over the Titans since their inception in 2007 which currently stands at 11-11 wins each including an 11-point positive for-and-against differential in the Eels favour (481-470). Does history have an odd sense-of-humour?
Additionally, the Eels have not been behind at half-time to the Titans for over five years (since R20, 2016 which was won by Titans 34-14 at CBUS).
CBUS
Round 4
Over the last 10 years (from 2012) here are some stats for round four.
82.5% (33/40) of the top-4 at round four made it to the finals.
73.8% (59/80) of teams in the top-8 at round four, ended up being in the top-8 playing finals.
50% (20/40) of teams in top-4 at round four, ended up being in the top-4 at the season's end.
Only four teams in the top-4 at round four ended up dropping out of the finals race altogether (St George three times, Titans twice, Tigers, and the Knights who dropped from 1st at round four to a wooden spoon and 16th by the end of 2015).
As an aside, Storm are the only team who has been in the finals campaign over the last ten years (for the last consecutive 11 years since 2011).
The total points scored over the first four round (1153) is the lowest on record since the Titans’ inception in 2007 to form the 16th team, 17 years ago. The youngest club with the youngest spine in the NRL, hitherto.
Also, despite the new rules, the difference of the total points differential (for and against) between the top-8 and bottom-8 is the closest it’s been in six years, since 2017, reflecting a reduction in the huge blowouts scores of recent years, hitherto. Also, the top 4 teams have been taking more of the pie of points scored. Between 2007-2018 the top 4 teams after round 4 scored between 27-31.8% of the total points scored in the NRL (at an average of 28.7%). But since 2019 we have seen a sharp increase to almost 38% share of the pie: 2019 (32.3%), 2020 (33.8%), 2021 (35.2%), 2022 (37.8%). Maybe this a sign of things to come? An increasing gap between the haves and have nots, and yet greater unpredictability for the bottom 10-12 teams?
Bottom Line
Based on form, we should win this game, and win it well. But, I expect the Titans to bounce back and be competitive, and we'll probably see over 40 points scored again with average score between the two clubs is 21.9 - 21.4. As good as it is to see a confident Eel, it is a double-edged sword. Great wins can often cause us to gloss over weaknesses.
Will the Eels keep having lapses and inviting teams in?
We have a habit of letting in teams on either side of half-time and in the first 10-11 minutes as well as the last 10 (83.3% of points conceded).
Will our defensive vulnerabilities around our ruck, edges, and on-then-off-then-on-again goal-line defence tighten up? We are leading the competition for missed tackles (average 36.5 per game), with only the Dragons (120 points) and Raiders (92) having conceded more points than the Eels (84) and Titans (80).
Will the more direct, north-south attack continue? Will the class that Dylbags and Moses showed to date, coupled with the often-missing Eels' killer instinct against the Saints in the second half, continue?
Or will the Titans with their attacking prowess upset the Eels, finally?
Can the Titans wake up the hulk?
Really, if the Eels are switched on, they should have too much class and firepower. But, will the Eels’ Jekyll and Hyde return to haunt long-suffering fans? Bear in mind, this is not the first time that we've looked like a million bucks, only to see a shooting star that fades out, fizzling into the sunset mid-to-late in the year. Will this year be different? Are we seeing the dawn of a more genuinely confident and more consistent team?
On a positive note, despite well-deserved praise and well-earnt confidence after great consecutive wins against the Storm and Saints, people close to Dylbags such as his cousin Justin Horo concede Dylan and the team are not getting too ahead of themselves and are not pleased with their lapses and many facets of their play to date. This gives me some hope. But, seeing is believing. It's not our first rodeo. And there is one more thing...
Replies
I'd love to win but still see Sami do the Gutho just to spice things up a bit. We certainly shouldn't take these guys lightly.
At least with Campbell out, we won't lose another winger to foul play.
Isaako trying to field Moses bombs should be juicy. Early pressure on him could force a mistake and he has some susceptibility to compounding errors if he makes one early.
Until they send a couple up for Waqa.
Good idea, Super. Moses' huge bomb gives chasers enough time to pressure their back 3. And that's the thing we need to watch for too, our own errors that we don't defend. About 50% of all our points conceded, atm, are 5 minutes or so either side of half-time.
The highlight will not come from the game itself, looking forward to seeing captain dopey totally ingnored by journos at the presser. Gutho ' thanks for the answers' lol apparently the club has requested Gutho complete NAPLAN testing be weeks end.
LOL Mick. Maybe they just can't get enough of BA, and some new phrases for 2020 that he conjures up.
Gutho and the gang need to take this personally and shove it back in their faces with a 40 nil flogging. To do the gutharine with Gutho laying there with the balls in his face is downright ridiculing our captain.
Guth needs to have his best game ever then push it in their faces
It would be outstanding to see him do it to Gutho again tbh . Not just because I'd love to see the ego of the queen crushed , but because it will set the tone for years to come whoever we play them.
Respect when it's due .. That was dam funny from Sami..
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