Eels Blogs

The Battle Of The West against the Chocolate soldiers. Two undefeated teams, in form, looking hungrier than they were last year.

Unsurprisingly, following our best start in thirty one years, we’re favourites $1.57 to $2.35 at Bankwest, where we've won 11 of the last 13, only losing to Friday night’s opponents the Panthers (R11, 2019,10-16) and the Dogs (R23, 2019, 6-12) last year, both on Thursday nights.

We showed some heart last week, in spite of the usual refereeing controversy and some silly errors. We weren’t as killer-instinct as we threatened to be at 18-2 in the 41st. Des Hasler conceded as much, noting Manly probably shouldn’t have been in that position, before adding: how proud he was of the team’s fightback to “win”. Meanwhile, Penrith continued their impressive campaign to date thumping the hapless Warriors, 26-0, who probably wonder where they are half the time.

Only the fourth team ever

Our 2020 team is only the fourth team to start 4-0 and offers one of the best defensive performances, in terms of least points conceded. We've seen more desperation in defence, better game management, skill as well as good execution on the whole. But, there are some alarm bells after last week. And this week's game could be a danger game, even another thriller.

Panthers: a bit of a boogey

Since 2016, the Panthers have got the better of us: we’ve lost the last 5 of 7, including the last game, with a LLWLLWL record.

At this ground in its various incarnations, over the last nine years from 2011, we’ve only had one win against the Panthers (1 from 6,  granted we didn’t play them between 2017-19 due to Bankwest's construction).

Six years ago was our last win here against the Panthers’, in its Parramatta Stadium past life. In R4, 2014, 32-16, when Ivan Cleary has his first spell as their head coach. Oddly enough, Peni Terepo was also on the bench then, too in no.14.

Five years ago was the last time we beat the Panthers in a night game. In R22, 2015, winning a close game 10-4 in Darwin on a Saturday night. Ironically, in that match, Reagan Campbell-Gillard Waqa, WIll Smith were in that Panthers team, now in our colours, with Cleary still there.

Close games are the norm: will it change this time?

Since 2015, the last nine matches since have been decided by ten or less points, indeed three-quarters of matches are historically between a margin of 1-12.

This could change with the game now on steroids, considering the points margin between winning and losing teams doubling since the new rules and there are about half as many close games as before the new rules were introduced. In any event, hopefully, we'll avoid refereeing controversies that maimed our victory.

Gerard Sutton factor

As per last week, the refereeing decisions, I rate a flip of the coin. Both teams have had success under Sutton in recent times. Maybe the home ground advantage may come into effect, again, at a ground we’re meant to perform well. Your guess is as good as mine.

Two steps forwards and one back ?

Statistically there isn’t too much between the two teams, except for one area, on the far right, and I'm not talking a Foxnews flash.

Both teams have willing defences, skillful attacks and make the most run metres in the competition, so the ruck and edges will be a real battle of attrition, until one cracks.

In last week’s demolition of the Warriors 26-0, the Panthers had 12 players running over 100m including  Fisher-Harris (257m), Tamou (207m), Tetevano (142m), Burton, Yeo (129m), To’o (151m), Mansour (178m) were outstanding in that regard. The Panthers will be more dangerous with Cleary steering the bus. The Panthers are a talented team and new additions Kourisau, who helps their dummy half runs and creativity; Tetevano and Capewell; all adding class and starch. And there's wrecking ball Kikau, of course.

Meanwhile, in our tight scrap over the Eagles we also had 12 players over 100m including the likes of Sivo (208m), Gutherson (193m), Campbell-Gillard (201m), Ferguson (218m), Paulo (186m) all contributed.  A special mention for Evans who in 36minutes: made 100m, scored a try, had 3 offloads and a fast play the ball (2.44s) only bettered by Moses (2s). Evans looked ready for a Super League retirement package, not so long ago. So, well done. Last week, our attack, though not at its best, performed well enough when presented with opportunities, with sublime touches of sublime class from Sivo, Jennings, Moses was running at the line more, Dylan Brown, Gutho was whilst Waqa and Blake were trying to get more involved. Last week also showcased Moses’ continual improvement. He’s growing as "The Man", something he’s struggled with in the past, as with tempering the fire in his belly. He also made some great desperation tackles, including a try saver on the line. The improvements in his kicking game, composure and defence that was once swiss-cheese, is commendable.

What got us home last week was our scrambling defence and improved goal-line defence, especially in the second half when we were under siege and well acquainted with goal-line defence. We would have lost this game in previous years.

However, what’s concerning, is we've reverted back to some of old bad habits: ballooning missed tackle counts. 

Last week, we missed tackles more tackles than Manly (45-34), despite enjoying more sets and possession (35-31, 51%-49%) and subsequently ended up making more tackles (339-313).

Last year, the Panthers and us had the worst missed tackle ratios in the competition (over 10.5%), and it showed when we either team faced adversity.

 This year, we have continued in the same vein, with our average missed tackle ratio (10.7%) similar to 2019's (10.5%). And, also, not far off the Titans (the worst at 11.4%). In comparison, the Roosters (8.5%), Storm (7.9%) and Manly (8.3%) were three of the best, last year.

In contrast to us, the Panthers currently boast one of  the best missed tackle ratios.

Their hard work in the off-season, focusing on the mental side of  their game, seems to have paid off, for now.

Although it may seem trivial, a high missed tackle ratio puts enormous pressure placed on secondary defences, and burns petrol. I also flagged it as an issue last year after our R6 demolition v the Tigers 51-6 (somehow to my amazement, we managed to miss more tackles in that game). A case in point. Last week, in the first twenty minutes, enjoying a lot of ball, the missed tackle count was 4-11 in our favour. By the 41st, just after half time, we were ahead 18-2 and seemingly well in control. Ten minutes later with Manly enjoying a bit more ball and field position it was 18-12, with the missed tackles balloon up to 29-22. In that ten minute window, just after half-time we missed 16% of our tackles (100% worse than last year’s top teams). And, for the next 30 minutes, with backs to the walls, under pressure we only scored a point, through a wobbly fortunate field goal. Almost as if, Moses sensed we couldn’t hold them out and were running on fumes. He was right. Manly scored three minutes later, after our missed tackles ballooned to end on 45-34.

It's worth noting Manly's ten minute spurt co-incided with Nuikore being off (28th-55th), and Nathan Brown's return, following suspension, will help fortify our defence, though he won't be able to tackle for everyone. We missed thirty percent more tackles than Manly's. If you're dropping thirty percent more easter eggs it's going to be harder to win the race.

Will this come back to bite us, like it did last year? Will we remedy it? Or will our scrambling defence be enough to save us from ourselves?

Another thing to consider is, after last's week intense battle will we be a little flatter against a side expected to be an easier matchup? 

We'll be up against ourselves as well.

For mine, although we showed heart there’s still some issues to address in our defence and focus to ensure we’re a more serious footy team. This week’s game will provide another test against a team that has caused us issues. Both teams are skillful, in form with good game-managers, so much will hinge on who wants it more. In any event, we still need to go up a notch if we're to realise our talent; will we? And will we match our best ever start to a season or fall victim to the Chocolate Soldiers, once again ?