Eels Blogs

"I am way more confident this year in those situations with the team that we have got," noted Brad Arthur in last week's post match press conference.

Arthur asserted he was confident of the result last week. But, was everyone feeling as confident, up 24-22 with three minutes left? When somehow the Tigers' had clawed their way back into the game against the "more dominant" Eels. Still, the undefeated Eels have had an outstanding start to the season. Their second best.

Meanwhile, finals' aspirants Dragons have improved dramatically from 2020, starting Griffin's reign breathing fire with 3 from 4 scalps. It could have easily been 4 from 4, as they had their claws in the Sharks in round one, hanging on. This will be their biggest test of the year, to date. Though both teams haven't been at their best, both are playing with spirit and courage, hitherto.

Teams

Sunday 11th April, Bankwest Stadium, Sydney, 6:15pm. Referee: Grant Atkins

Eels
1 Clint Gutherson, 2 Maika Sivo (L), 3 Tom Opacic (L), 4 Marata Niukore (R), 5 Blake Ferguson (R), 6 Dylan Brown (R), 7 Mitchell Moses (L), 8 Reagan Campbell-Gillard, 9 Reed Mahoney, 10 Junior Paulo, 11 Shaun Lane (R), 12 Ryan Matterson (L), 13 Nathan Brown Bench: 14. Oregon Kaufusi 15. Isaiah Papali’i 16. Will Smith 17. Bryce Cartwright
Reserves: 18. Ray Stone, 19. Haze Dunster, 20. Keegan Hipgrave’, 21. Jordan Rankin
Injuries: Michael Oldfield (knee, round 5-6), Waqa Blake (calf, round 6), Michael Jennings (stood down, indefinite)

Ryan Matterson returns pushing the highly impressive Papali’i back to the bench. Also, Bryce Cartwright debuts. It's been almost a year since he last played, and 2016 was a long while ago. He had a second chance at the Titans when Brennan predicted he'd be a big part of the Titans' future. Here's his third chance.

Dragons, puff, puff
1 Matt Dufty, 2 Cody Ramsey (L), 3 Jack Bird (L), 4 Zac Lomax (R), 5 Mikaele Ravalawa (R), 6 Corey Norman (L), 7 Adam Clune (R), 8 Blake Lawrie, 9 Andrew McCullough, 10 Paul Vaughan, 11 Josh Kerr (R), 12 Tariq Sims (L), 13 Tyrell Fuimaono Bench: 14. Poasa Faamausili (R) 15. Trent Merrin 16. Daniel Alvaro 17. Brayden Williame
Reserves: 18. Jackson Ford 19. Kade Ellis 20. Jordan Pereira. 21. Max Feagai
Injuries: Jayden Sullivan (hamstring, round 5), Ben Hunt (leg, round 8), Cameron McInnes (knee, season), Jack de Belin (stood down)

For the Dragons Jack Bird returns at centre with Brayden Wiliame dropping to the bench and Jackson Ford to the reserves.

Matchups

The battle of the spine and game managers will be an intriguing battle. Ex Eels Norman, Clune and Duffy's speed will be crucial for the Dragons' hopes. Watch Norman float on both edges, sniffing for spaces and opportunities to score. Moses still sometimes runs sideways looking for opportunities, as well, but he's had some success with it. I miss his running game. 

Saints and Eels have had success from their attacking kicks this year and that should feature in this game. The Eels should be expecting a few Norman kicks for Lomax, the former Olympian high jumper, perhaps by isolating Opaic. While the King doesn't have Duffy's speed he makes up for it in skill and frequent visits to workaholics Anonymous. He never stops. Whatever he's on, I'll take.

There's an intriguing battle between Griffin's favorite son, the veteran McCullough, and young Mahoney who has improved significantly on last year, where in many games he barely ran and even produced a game with 0m in runs. I wonder whether we'll see McCullough attempt his typical dummy barge over try from on the line? Will we fall for that again?

Eels right edge v Dragons left edge: Tariq Sims has been in great form scoring two tries and adds a great point of attack on the left edge along with Bird to face the Eels rebuilt right edge of Lane, Dylan, Niukore, and Fergo. I'm hoping we get to see Niukore colliding into Sims and whoever else stands in his way.

Eels left edge v Dragons right edge and Sivo versus Ravalawa sees two Fijian semi-trailers colliding. The Dragons right edge with Lomax, Ravalawa is up against Opacic, Sivo: an intriguing battle. Lomax's aerial skill against Opaic could result in points.

The clash of the forwards should see the Eels have an edge. The Eels are number one metre eaters in the game and that will provide a foundation.

However, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Dragons coming out very aggressively with a few dust-ups. The Dragons have been fiery over the early rounds with a few all-in wrestling matches. Will we see another all in argy bargy? There's a high probability with these fire breathers. And Nathan Brown might add a spray of Italian oil.

History

The Dragons upset the Eels the last time these two sides met, also at this ground, in round 14 last year. Grant Atkins was also the referee then and we have a shocking 36.7% record with him.

One For Mary. Bon Voyage.

But before that the Eels' had only lost once in ten years to the Dragons, and never by more than 2 points. And for eight seasons the Eels have had the wood on the Dragons.

The last two games have been close affairs by 2 and 8 points. And about half of the games between these teams over the last eight years (5 of 11) have been decided by 12 points or less.

Bankwest

In 2021 so far, the Eels are 2 wins from 2 at Bankwest to compliment the excellent record to date. 

Perhaps coincidently, half of the games we have lost at Bankwest were under one referee: Grant Atkins ( 3 of 6 ).

Last week

In the Dragons' upset over the Knights, Anthony Griffin was very happy with the Dragons' "will to compete", "physicality" and defence. They were aggressive, showed energy and intensity. Despite having only 46% of possession and making over 400 tackles for 28 missed tackles they overcame a brave, injury riddled Knights. The forwards all worked hard for each other. Despite some errors (16 in total for the Dragons), the spine of Norman, Clune, McCullough and Duffy who bobbed up in support everywhere, all played well and contributed.

For the Eels it was business as usual. Leave the match in the balance until as close to full time as possible. 

In the Eels' expected win over the Tigers, the Eels got off to a flyer at 16-0 after 25 minutes. A cricket scored loomed. But, they failed to land the killer blows necessary and did whatever they could to help the Tigers make a game of it. The only thing missing was the red carpet. There were moments where the ball had spiders on it for Fergo, Gutho and the world's biggest halfback Paulo ( Eels made 11 errors in total, often in very compromising field position). This helped ensure the Eels finished with less possession (48%) despite seemingly in control of the match at times and the Tigers clawed their way back to 22-24 with a few minutes left on the clock. The Eels ran away with it two quick tries in the dying minutes to make the scoreboard smile.

For me, it raises some questions.

What's up? 

Putting aside Jeckyl and Hyde performance against the Broncos in round 1, the Eels seem to find ways to allow the opposition to stay in the match. In the last three rounds the games were hanging in the balance until the last 3, 4 and 11 dying minutes, before either a one or one-two try punch at the death.

In the Tigers game, Eels seemed to have the upperhand in most of the game, yet the game was in the balance at 24-22 until the last 3 minutes.In the Sharks game (R3) in different circumstances. The Eels enjoying a mountain of possession (over 60%), field position, against the injury ravaged Sharks who were somehow still in the match at 10-4 down, with 11 minutes left. In the Storm game (R2), albeit against the reigning premiers. The Eels looked to be gaining ascendency in a tight match, but couldn't finish off the Storm who kept coming back. Subsequently, the scores were locked in at 12-12 with 4 minutes left. It was left for a miraculous Sivo take off a well-placed Moses bomb to seal the game.

Is it a lack of killer instinct? Merely a sign the team hasn't quite got its attack together? Or the team switches on and off, or all of the above? Or something else? Perhaps, it's nothing.

Stats & Errors

We sure saw some classic Fergo and friends' moments in the Tigers game.

Eels are ahead of the Dragons in most stats (run metres, tackle busts, linebreaks, less missed tackles, more post contact metres, more decoy runs. However, one stat the Dragons are ahead of the Eels are dummy half runs (Dragons 1st, Eels 9th) and goal kicking. Lomax may have a slight edge over Moses. For now.

• Both teams enjoy high handling error rates (Dragons are 3rd, Eels 4th). That has probably contributed to both sides sometimes allowing the opposition back into the match.
• Both teams are in the mid range for metres conceded (Dragons 8th, Eels 9th) with the Panthers (16th and the best), Roosters (15th), Rabbitohs (14th) and Storm (13th); the heavyweights conceding the least metres.
• Tackles in the red zone. On average the Eels have had around 50% more opportunities to score points in the opposition's red zone than the Dragons, but have only scored one more point (Eels have scored 19 tries to Dragons 17 tries). Eels are ranked in the top four for tackles in the opposition 20m zone (32.3 tackles per game, 4th) in comparison to the Dragons who were in the basement (22 tackles per game, 15th). It could suggest the Dragons do well with the limited opportunities they are presented with, so far, in comparison to the Eels.
• Dragons rank high for missed tackles (5th), averaging almost 33 missed tackles per game (just behind the likes of Manly, Cowboys, Dogs and Sharks). So they may offer the Eels opportunities. Eels are averaging around 24 per game (13th).

Arthur: Eels have improved, handling pressure better

Arthur has expressed more confidence in the 2021 Eels than last year's group. Though Athur admits the team isn't performing at its best, and shouldn't be, he believes this team handles the big pressure moments better than in the past. Asked why, he noted:

"It’s just our actions, staying right there and making sure that whatever happens next we will be able to handle it and get back to what works for us. There is still plenty of our game that we want to improve but ... when a moment goes against us we respond better and it is just about making sure that we worry about what is coming up next - not what has happened or [something] five sets away."

No doubt we responded when the Tigers' started seizing momentum and were within 2 points. And, it was the previous transgressors, the fumble brothers, Gutho and Fergo, whom sealed the game with two quick fire tries when the team needed it.

Bottom Line

Time will tell if Arthur is right, and the team handles pressure in the big moments better: matured. He's probably in the best position to accurately judge the team's character. Provisionally, the answer is maybe, based on results.

Futhermore, the season is a grinding treacherous marathon. It's not the time of the year to be playing your best. Cue the soufflé-like Eels of 2020 who looked like contenders before flopping in the second half of the season. Winning games suffices for now.

For the Dragons to win, they will need to step up considerably and unsettle the Eels. Their forwards will need to stand up to the Eels' pack, with agression and line speed. Their best hope is to frustrate the Eels attack with bustling, in-your-face defence as the Eels' attack has been known to stall and travel sideways or produce slap stick fumbles. The Eels will need to try and stop being their own worst enemy, play to their strength, getting forward momentum in the middle, then seize the opportunities presented to them. If they play at or near their best, they should have too much firepower coupled with a better bench. However, if they rely on winning the game in its dying breaths, time won't wait for them in every game.

This is another game the Eels should win, but the Red V have started Griffin's reign full of fire and brimestone, and the odd brawl. Both teams are playing courageously and should be confident. This week will be another show of Arthur's faith in the Eels' maturity and calm confidence to get the job done.