In the opening instalment of The Expendables (2010) movie franchise, Mr Church (Bruce Willis) contracts Barney Ross (Sylvester Stallone) and his merry band of mercenaries to assassinate some dictator. Negotiating the contract, Mr Church says to Barney “If you take this money and you don't deliver, or you try to f*ck me in some kind of weird cockamamie scheme of yours, me and my people are gonna come get you and your people and chop you up into little f*cking dog treats. You got a problem with that?” For most Eels fans, going into Season 2022, and knowing Mahoney, Papali’I, Niukore, Kaufusi and Stone are all departing (the pack) come 2023, we are like Mr Church. We understand the modern game turns players into mercenaries, but we just want to know they will take out the opposition while they are still here.
Ray Stone took out the opposition. Ray Stone is a stone cold killer. You do not want to be tackled by Ray Stone. Ray Stone scored two tries against the Storm, all effort, and one a game clincher in which he scored despite tearing his ACL in the process. Ray Stone delivered, and I salute him and wish him well at the Dolphins in 2023. Are our other mercenaries delivering? Niukore gets a pass due to being out injured. But the Eels are ranked first in the missed tackles count (126 after three rounds). The missed tackles count is not a competition you want to win. Mahoney, Papali’I and Kaufusi all feature in the Top 50 for missed tackles. We have a problem with that. The Eels (heading in to Round 4) are 2nd for points scored but 14th for points conceded (only the Titans and the … Dragons … are worse). The Eels need to fix their defensive frailty and we need our mercenaries in the forward pack to get a whole lot more assasinationy (yeah, I’m coining a f*cked up word). Welcome to Round 4.
Teams
Sunday 3 April, Commbank Stadium, The Holy Land, 6:15pm (AEDT). Referee: Todd Smith.
Eels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Waqa Blake 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Tom Opacic 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali'i 13. Nathan Brown 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Bryce Cartwright 17. Oregon Kaufusi 18. Mitch Rein 19. Wiremu Greig 20. Hayze Perham 21. Ky Rodwell 22. Solomone Naiduki 23. Samuel Loizou 24. Elie El Zakhem
Head coach: Brad Arthur
Dragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Mathew Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Talatau Amone 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Moses Mbye 10. Blake Lawrie 11. Jack Bird 12. Jack Gosiewski 13. Tariq Sims 14. Jack de Belin 15. Josh Kerr 16. Jackson Ford 17. Aaron Woods 18. Tautau Moga 19. Poasa Faamausili 20. Daniel Alvaro 21. Andrew McCullough 22. Jaiyden Hunt 23. Jonathon Reuben 24. George Burgess
Head coach: Anthony Godric Gryffindor.
Notes: For the Dragons, Ramsey is replaced on the wing by Feagai, and Su’A in the backrow by Gosiewski. Elsewhere, Asofa-Solomona (Storm) was given a financial love tap for a stiff arm to the back of Makatoa’s head, so I guess that means the Eels are lucky the perennially-prone-to-foul-play Su’A was suspended? Otherwise, ya know, it’s clearly open season on the Eels (remember poor Russell’s ribs?). For the Eels, Matterson returns but, with due respect for Matto, everyone is sad that Ray Stone was injured in a game-winning play of pure effort. Cartwright comes on to the bench, destined to probably keep it warm for 80 mins, like J. Arthur and W. Greig before him in recent weeks.
Observations from Last Week
Eels (vs Storm), 28-24 (W), 48% possession, 78% completion rate, 5 line breaks, 32 tackle breaks, 12 offloads, 44 missed tackles, 26 ineffective tackles, 11 errors, 5 penalties conceded, 3 ruck infringements.
Dragons (vs Sharks), 12-36 (L), 49% possession, 75% completion rate, 2 line breaks, 25 tackle breaks, 8 offloads, 31 missed tackles, 16 ineffective tackles, 9 errors, 7 penalties conceded, 0 ruck infringements.
Eels/Storm highlights HERE.
Dragons/Sharks highlights HERE.
The Dragons were right in the game against the Sharks until kick-off. Enough said. Well, not quite, because after Jayden Su’A was sin-binned in the 15th minute all defensive resolve among the Dragons seemed to be washed away with the driving rain. The Dragons have a defensive frailty issue just like the Eels but go into the Eels clash without Su’A. That will either benefit the Eels, or the Dragons will have received a shellacking from their coach. We all recall Round 5 of 2021 against the Dragons, when a then 4-0 top-of-the-table Eels allowed themselves to be hustled and bustled by a physically dominant Dragons to lose 12-26. The Eels then went on to spank 5 teams in a row (before the wheels fell off in mid-season losses to Manly and Souths).
For the Eels, they are developing a habit of knocking over the Storm (winning the past three games). That said, in all three games of 2022, the Eels have given up a lead. The Eels led the Titans 26-12 before being overtaken at the 43-minute mark, and then stealing back the lead to win. The Eels led the Sharks 16-12 at the 65-minute mark before conceding the match-losing try in the 79th minute. The Eels tied the game against the Storm 18-18 at the 60-minute mark, assumed the lead 24-18 at the 71-minute mark, but then let the Storm even the score 24-24 at the 75-minute mark (Ray Stone heroics steals it all back in overtime). There is a pattern here, which in the press conference Brad Arthur alluded to, of a lack of professionalism. Metaphors might include clocking off, brain snaps, and not being assasinationy enough in defence. Despite an even share of possession and a better completion rate than the Storm (78% vs 68%), the Eels missed 44 tackles (to 32) and made 26 ineffective tackles (to 20). Defensive frailty is the common element in all three games for the Eels so far in 2022.
Drop your guns! Fat chance.
In a ridiculously silly action scene in a gloriously silly movie (The Expendables), a group of pirates demand that Barney Ross and Co drop their guns, to which Lee Christmas (Jathan Statham) replies ‘fat chance’. What we need to see from the Eels is similar belligerence. Especially because results against the Dragons of late have not been stellar.
Not only has the general record against the Dragons been poor of late, but even the fortress of Commbank has been breached.
Indeed, the Dragons could be said to be on a winning streak at the Eels’ home ground.
Brad Arthur has an overall good record against Dragons teams in general …But against Griffin in particular, BA has not beaten a Griffin-coached team since 2017.
Elsewhere, omens are split. Gutho has a good record against the Dragons …
But Ravalawa also has a good record against the Eels. Indeed, Ravalawa has been amongst the Dragons best in Season 2022, being at the top of the league’s try scoring, linebreaks, kick return metres, and overall run metres. Opacic and Blake on the Eels’ left centre-wing are going to have their hands full against Ravalawa.
Strangely, when we turn to the statistical comparisons between the two teams, coming in to Round 4 it is not exactly clear where the Dragons are going wrong in defence but it is clear where the problem is for the Eels.The Eels rank first for completions versus the Dragons ranking 10th, so we know the Dragons put their defence under pressure, but from there the story gets murky. The Eels have the worst missed tackle count, while the Dragons are ranked 6th best. The Eels have the 5th worst ineffective tackle score, while the Dragons sit right in the middle at 8th.
Where is it going wrong for the Eels? In the middle and on their right edge. From the middle of the park and moving to the right wing, the Eels’ defensive line runs Kaufusi/N.Brown (lock), Mahoney, Papali’I, Moses, Penisini and Simonsson. Nathan Brown is not missing tackles when he is on, but Kaufusi, Mahoney, Papali’I, Moses and Penisini ALL feature in the Top 50 missed tackle table. Everyone will perpetually debate how much fault a winger (Simonsson) shares when the opposing winger or centre goes past them, but Simonsson has not exactly filled anyone with confidence with his defensive reads. Earlier I suggested we need some of our departing mercenaries to get a bit more assasinationy in defence, and here we can see the Kaufusi-Mahoney-Papali’I combination is collectively misfiring. To be fair, Lane (Eels’ left edge) also features in the Top 50 for missed tackles. Overall, the Eels’ edge and middle defence is currently a bit frail, leading to linebreaks as well as penalties due to the A and B defenders getting pinged for offside or ruck infringements.
The Bottom Line
I said above it was a bit murky where the Dragons were going wrong defensively, whereas for the Eels it seems clear: the middle and edge, especially on the right. But this too gets murky, because the consequences have been distributed: against the Titans, the Titans scored on our flanks; against the Sharks, the Sharks scored on the edges; and against the Storm, the Eels were broken square in the middle of the field several times. Those with more tactical nous than I can try to decipher what’s going on there. But the Kaufusi-Mahoney-Papali’i mercenaries could really make a difference if they sorted their collectively high missed tackle count out.
More contentiously, maybe, we can’t ignore that our departing dummy half, naturally high on the receipts and tackle involvement score, has yet to find the form we all know he can achieve. Mahoney has been a fan-favourite for good reasons, but now we are all ambivalent as he heads to the Dogs. So it does stand out that Mahoney is missing tackles, not running from dummy half enough, and sometimes making poor decisions with passes. And yes, there is a line from The Expendables for it. Yin Yang (Jet Li) tells Barney Ross that he works harder than others because he is smaller: “Everything is harder for me. When I'm hurt, wound is bigger, 'cause I'm smaller. When I travel I need to go farther.” Yeah, whatever Reed, you’re here now, bring it on please. We know you have more kung fu in you than we have thus far seen in 2022. Or, the obvious pun, it's not the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog. We know we have a terrier on our hands ... we really need some mongrel from Reed ... OK, I'll stop now.
In a rugby league world of expendable mercenaries, we don’t require fidelity forever. We just require wiping out the current opposition, even if you’re on their team next. Time to slay some Dragons, dear Eels.
Replies
Wow daz, you are on fire.
Seriously impressive.
The Expendables theme was a gamble, Randy, but doesn't seem to have, um, backfired.
Reed is not 100%. Wether it's between the shoulder blades or between the ears, which can be difficult coming back from surgery, somethings wrong. I think he could do well with a spell of at least 5-10 minutes a half. Replaced with who? The lunatic aka Bryce Cartwright. I think Carty could have a role similar to the cheese at the Storm - basic dummy half distribution combined with great runs and solid defence!
Possibly, Helmut. Cartwright normally plays on the edge, though, right? Brandon S runs in the middle. But agreed, Mahoney might benefit from Cartwright (or someone!) giving him a spell
Brillant summary and your 100% accurate where we are being let down. Reed is playingway below 2020-2021 form. I understand that coming back from a major shoulder injury is tough but he is so vital to this team that him being MIA is really hurting us. I havent been impressed with Kafusi either and ICE has been marked up heavily. WE are desperate to get Nikoure back becuase he hits and sticks in defence and his running game lays great platforms.
I have been at Bankwest both of our last two Saints losses. Last year was terrible. They absolutely butchered us. WE were nevr ever going to win that game. SIVO was schooled by his fellow Fijian. NOt confident but I know we are closer to coming good than falling right aweay and stringing losses together. Start fast and move them around.
Paul, agreed, Niukore would be useful
Nice work again Daz and HOE.I hope our players read this blog.An honest appraisal of our defence misgivings. That in itself should be a motivator for these players to take responsibility not to be mentioned again for their defence.
This is the type of game we need to build on from last week and win convincingly.
Tad, if they read these previews, they might get mad! The subjects of any analysis/commentary are not always into being redescribed!
Yo Prof Daz this is a good one man 👍🏻 You even picked a great flick for the Gen Z to actually understand your story. Phkn love your work mate . Let's go parra
LOL, Shire Eel. I hadn't though Expendables might be a Gen Z thing but that makes sense. My own child just makes Gen Z. But the Gen Z thing does give me an idea for a future backstory. Stay tuned!
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