Will we stand up this week and win three straight against the Storm for the first time in 20 years? It's at AAMI, Storm's cauldron, where history has laughed at us. Out loud. It's been five long years since we won, here. And if the last two weeks’ form is a guide of what the Eels will dish up, we may be ripe for a Storm mauling.
Teams
Storm:
1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Dean Ieremia 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Xavier Coates (hamstring) 19. Nick Meaney 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich (c) 9. Harry Grant (Covid Protocols) 23. *Brandon Smith 10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenneath Bromwich 13. Josh King
Bench: 14. *Tyran Wishart (Covid Protocols) 15. Alec MacDonald 16. Trent Loiero 17. Tepai Moeroa 18. Chris Lewis
Reserves: 20. Johah Pezet 21. Jayden Nikorima 22. Will Warbrick 24. Sualauvi Faalogo
Coach: Craig Bellamy
Eels:
1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Waqa Blake 3. Will Penisini 4. Tom Opacic 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Nathan Brown
Bench: 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Wiremu Greig 16. Ray Stone 17. Oregon Kaufusi
Reserves: 18. Bryce Cartwright 19. Brendan Hands 20. Ky Rodwell 21. Hayze Perham 22. Solomone Naiduki 23. Luca Moretti 24. Samuel Loizou
Coach: Brad Arthur
Grant is a big loss, as is Wishart who probably would have covered him (former Dog Nick Meeney comes into the 17). Will Cheese be a late in (*revision, yes in)? We have a better winning ratio with Nathan Brown than without (56.3% versus 50% without) and with Brown the for and against has remained in the positive (an average score of 20.3 - 18.7 with him, versus 21.1 - 21.6 without). The clash of the forwards will be a decisive factor, as will the clash of the spines.
AAMI: 0-32
I still recall Papenhuyzen describing us in the last game we played at AAMI. Back in the 2019 finals. Week 2, when else? 0-32.
Additionally, we have lost the last 3 straight here, but do win once every blue moon or so. 5 years ago was the last time.
The last time we won here was the first and only time Gutho kicked goals against the Storm. Will he be kicking at all this time around?
Bogeys: quite a few more
Unsurprisingly, the Eels have the worst overall losing rate against the Storm (60%) than any other current NRL team.
And under Arthur, the same ratio has continued. Echoes of the dominant Bellamy-Ponissi era for over twenty years. How long can it last and is it coming to an end anytime soon? Not our problem, obviously, but it might help.
And under Arthur, the Storm is far from our worst bogey.
Eels: better frontrunners, post-2019
Last week, the Sharks dominated the Eels early to scrap to an 8-6 half-time lead, and eventually win the Tim Mannah Cup. They found a way to win, despite less possession and opportunities. As did the Storm, last week against the rabbits, who also suffered two sin bins and scratchy form. We found a way to lose.
Statistically, the Eels don’t win many games they’re behind in, at half-time ( less than 1 in 4 ) though we've done well against the Storm recently. And since 2019, the Eels have gotten better as front runners - and winning closer games - only dropping two games in the last three years when ahead at the break. Unsurprisingly, we have been in three successive finals campaigns for the first time in 15 years (2005-07).
An Omen?
Oddly enough, under Arthur, we have only made the finals after winning 2 or more games to start the season (2017, 2019-2021) - something we have not managed in 2022. In the years we did not win the first two games (2014, 2015, 2016, 2018) we never made the finals.
Bottom Line
Arthur told us we have been training smarter for 2022, learning the lessons of the past, along with much fanfare as to our prospects. Barely a week ago, Ryan Matterson spoke proudly of the newly-found maturity of the team, finding ways to win.
"If that was the old Parramatta side, we would've buckled in maturity, but we kept a cool, calm, and collected mindset, and we ended up coming away with the win [R1, Titans]."
That didn’t happen in round 2. And there are some worrying signs early in 2022. And, what does it mean?
Sure, there has been plenty of effort, but, many traits - or bad habits - of older Eels’ sides that seem to be resurfacing. Our off-and-on intensity and defensive vulnerabilities highlight that whether it is around the ruck or edges, especially our famed right edge. This is underscored by a competition-high missed tackles total of 82, and conceding 12 line-breaks after two rounds. Nothing new.
To add to that, although our attack looks impressive at face value (equal first), we have had the gluttony of ball - competition-high possession rates averaging 56% per game - and plenty of penalty kicks. On closer inspection, in the red zone and coming out of our line we seemed often predictable and impotent, despite good field position, high possession, and high completion rates. It's been marred by poor execution, bombed tries, a plethora of one-outs, crash plays, sideways motion, and an over-reliance on kicks or individual brilliance against the run of play to score. We also lacked killer instinct when we had an advantage. Nothing new.
On a positive note, we have seen snippets of brilliance and a direct attack in the first two rounds. Bodies in motion, fast hands, fast short passes, well-executed cohesiveness. And Souths showed last week that such a direct attack and intensity can breach the Storm's defenses - who have also missed over 30 tackles a game, uncharacteristically and do not look in the best of form. Perhaps, they too have something to prove?
But, overall, the Eels' cohesiveness, intensity, and direct attack we saw pre-season against the Panthers is missing. Or maybe that was an illusion? The talent is there, but something is amiss. All is well when we’re skating downhill, but, more often than not, when teams stand up to us, and the game or the odd bounce of the ball doesn’t go according to the script, we lose our heads. Often at critical junctions. We find ways to let the opposition in. Additionally, for too much of the match last week the Sharks out-muscled us. We can't let the Storm get a foothold, or else they will bash the door down, demolish the room, and burn the castle down. We are not consistently as intense or cohesive as a Bellamy-Ponissi-era Storm team - which leads to false confidence, eroding into even more bad habits. Although, the Storm, too are scratchy and not in top gear. For me, the Eels’ Achilles heel is between their ears, and it sits under the mystical "culture" umbrella or the famed Lombardi-Tzu’s notion of "habits" and “character”:
Watch your thoughts, they become your words; watch your words, they become your actions; watch your actions, they become your habits; watch your habits, they become your character; watch your character, it becomes your destiny.
Hopefully, all these concerns are false flags. Paranoid meanderings of an all-too-often disappointed Eels' fan. Hopefully, we are indeed the mature contenders we are touted to be, with the likes of Ennis and Mary and our psychologists arming us with an edge to break our limitations and ceilings under the Arthur era.
To date, we are not premiership contenders. We have not made a mark yet. Talent and potential is not enough. It’s time for the Eels to stand up, and break past habits, or else we may dig ourselves in a hole, in a vicious cycle undermining our confidence. History shows three things. One, few learn from it. Two, habits are hard to break. And three, history has peculiar ways of repeating itself in different ways.
Replies
Outstanding HOE, looking for a real physical performance, the line break's conceded and missed tackles are standards not acceptable if want to be a serious title contenders in saying that this week is a perfect opportunity to reset. The stats after most games favour us, any quality backine playing behind this pack would have a field day, time to put in a finals type performance v the storm.
Thanks, Mick. Hope you and your loved ones are all well champion.
Cheers HOE, same to you mate.
A couple of very important points:
The first is, HOE...I believe you're posting what now is basically the game day blog far too early, 3 days out this time. By game day this is four pages back.
Secondly, WTF was Ploppa's blog closed!?
Ive been busy and just noticed it, got fired up and ready to mame several people then Thoopereel22 closes it?
Fuck me that's poor form and Ploppa is very lucky...this time.
Grunts, I'm not really fussed if you set up a game day blog or if the previews are used as a game day blog. I will leave it as your call.
On Poppa's blog, you can either wait to unleash or fill out a complaint form appealing to the International Forums' Court of Human Justice.
I agreed to its closure in conjunction with Super, it had served its purpose and reunited the polarisation in the discussion.Albeit against me LOL. Its great when everyone can get behind a theme.
Great blog as usual Hoe, I have no problem with the timing, given that game day can be anywhere between Thursday and Sunday, I believe it is perfect timing.
I think this is a real test and whilst I am relatively comfortable with the starting 13, I am not convinced about the authority of the bench.....I like Ray Stone, he has some authority about him, but I have a suspicion he may not make the final 17.
Poppa, behind every great forum there is a great villain or three. LOL
Nothing seems to unite a tribe more than a common enemy; something deeply limbic.
Reminds me of a Marvel movie. The Ukraine situation, and most wars.
PS: Thanks for the kind words as well, mate. Hope you and the family are well.
Heres a piece of advice id like to share that i found online, it goes for everybody including myself, we all should be reminded of this from time to time.
Very true, Snakey, my wise friend.
It's ironic, that I was just talking to my wife about something similar though unrelated to 1EE, barely 10 minutes ago. The miracle of Synchronicity.
For some reason your quote made me think of Kipling's "If":
Be like the eagle that sees the landscape, and beyond.
The very first two lines of that RK piece youve put there are words i think of often mate, usually when ive lost my cool over something or in a crisis situation, those words often come to me from that peom, i can never remember who wrote it, youve just reminded me, thanks mate.
I was only thinking about those words the other day, that is synchronicity.
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