Eels Blogs

Ask no questions, and you’ll be told no lies. So says Pip’s sister, in Charles Dickens’ Great Expectations (1861), when Pip (see Chapter 2) had queried the sounds of guns in the distance. But Pip already suspected the truth. He knew convicts were on the loose because the convict Abel Magwitch had asked him to deliver some food and a file with which Abel could cut his chains. Pip had been afraid to assist but overcame his fears to help free Abel. Later Abel would return that kindness, as Pip’s secret benefactor, transforming Pip from poor blacksmith to wealthy gentleman. Sometimes, success stories start in the most unlikely of places and most unappealing of circumstances. Albert Einstein was born on 14 March 1879, with deformities (misshapen head and excess body fat) and what would become a speech delay. Einstein and his relatives disagree about when he started talking, Albert insisting 3-4 and his relatives saying 2.5, but they all agree he was sparse with words until … his genius was self-evident. Sometimes things do not go to plan in the beginning. It was a similar story for Abraham Lincoln: a failed business, nervous breakdown and defeat in his first run for US President, before being elected in 1861. Whereupon Abe is reported to have quipped that failure is not the issue, but whether you are content with failure. The Eels have started the season poorly but can turn things around so long as they are not content with failure. Welcome to Round 3.

Teams

Thursday 16 March, 4 Pines Park, Sydney, 8:00pm (AEDT). Lands of the Cammeraygal People. Referee: Adam Gee.

EELS: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Waqa Blake 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Junior Paulo 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Matt Doorey 13. J'maine Hopgood 14. Jirah Momoisea 15. Jack Murchie 16. Wiremu Greig 17. Makahesi Makatoa 18. Jakob Arthur 19. Haze Dunster 20. Ofahiki Ogden 21. Ky Rodwell 22. Isaac Lumelume

Head coach: Brad Oops Bad Start Arthur.

MANLY: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Christian Tuipulotu 3. Brad Parker 4. Tolutau Koula 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Josh Schuster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Jake Trbojevic 11. Haumole Olakau'atu 12. Kelma Tuilagi 13. Josh Aloiai 14. Kaeo Weekes 15. Ben Trbojevic 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Sean Keppie 18. Toafofoa Sipley 19. Cooper Johns 20. Morgan Harper 21. Karl Lawton 22. Ben Condon

Head coach: Anthony Fixer LOL Seibold 

Notes: for Manly, their first choice #6 (John Schuster) returns. The Eels are unchanged. 

Observations from Last Week

Eels (vs Sharks), 26-30 (L), 50% possession, 66% completion rate, 6 linebreaks, 24 tackle breaks, 10 offloads, 32 missed tackles, 10 ineffective tackles, 15 errors, 4 penalties conceded, 1 inside 10 meters, 0 ruck infringements, 0 sin bin.

Manly (vs Dogs), 31-6 (W) in Round 1, BYE in Round 2, 55% possession, 77% completion rate, 6 linebreaks, 29 tackle breaks, 6 offloads, 24 missed tackles, 13 ineffective tackles, 11 errors, 4 penalties conceded, 0 inside 10 meters, 4 ruck infringements, 0 sin bin.

Eels/Sharks highlights HERE.

Manly/Dogs highlights HERE

After finishing 2022 on a seven-game losing streak, Manly won the pre-season challenge, tamed the Dogs in Round 1, before enjoying the BYE in Round 2. Given how poorly the Dogs played, with Matt Burton managing to play worse than Dylan Brown did in Round 1, it is difficult to judge the Manly R1 performance. Manly scored five tries but two (either side of half time) were scored while the Dogs had a player in the sin bin, and one was from an intercept. Of note for this week, though, was that Manly played an up-tempo running game: Turbo (173m), Koula (126m) and Garrick (194m) were dangerous from the backfield, while four of their starting pack exceeded 125m and two of their bench forwards also exceeded 125m.

The Eels, according to BA, should not be happy having conceded five tries to the Sharks, but he “thought the effort was there”. Let’s accept BA’s assessment that the effort was there. The smarts were not.

There is plenty of evidence for ‘effort’. Against Cronulla, every Eels back ran for more than 100m. Our halves were busy: Dylan ran for 195m and Moses for 138m. Paulo (171m, 57 mins) and RCG (181m, 65 mins) ran for plenty of yardage and played big minutes, ably supported by Cartwright (137m) and Hopgood (145m).

While granting effort, the smarts were questionable. Starting with the coaching box. Why is our bench not being fully utilized? BA answered that question in the presser: he needs Paulo and RCG on, “they’re important for us”. Translation: he does not trust his bench. In R1 and R2 only Murchie has played a prominent role from the bench: 116m from 37 mins and 30 tackles, and 112m from 35 mins and 16 tackles. Otherwise, BA has left a middle unused in each round (Makatoa and then Greig), played Momoisea 20 mins and then 24 mins, with Greig getting just 16 mins in R1 and Makatoa just 13 mins in R2.

The playing crew lacked smarts too. Way too much sideways movement without little decoy running and little hole-running to straighten the attack. Gutho getting intercepted on the Sharks' line indicated a defensive team that were confident they could hold their width and nobody would run a challenging line. The Eels' left-side edge defense of Cartwright, Brown and Waqa leaving a whale shark sized hole once is unfortunate, but doing it twice is not smart. Letting the Sharks stroll through the same defensive channel on the right-edge side is taking things to stupid level. Wasting a 20-18 lead with 10 minutes of headless chook attacking play in the Sharks' red zone is brain-left-the-building stuff, and whatever Waqa was thinking by not getting the ball to Sivo in the final seconds when in the Sharks 10m zone and having a 2-on-1 on the left wing is ... I am just going to say not smart.

Returning to the coaching, is BA's bench policy genius or folly? I looked at what other teams are doing. Our R3 opponent (Manly) went with a 40/20 split in R1 (two bench x 40 mins, two x 20 mins). The benchmark, Penrith, had roughly the same 40/20 split across the opening two rounds. The Bunnies ran a utility back for 8 then 7 mins, but otherwise the bench played 30+ mins. The ladder leading Broncos bench are playing 35 mins (Tapau only 20 mins), and Dolphins also 35 mins (except the utility back).

I suggest BA is the outlier and there is a lack of trust in the bench players to perform the role needed of them, of either sustaining the line speed and meter eating of the starting pack or offering impact (defensive or attacking) off the bench. When Matto returns (R4?), and later Lane (R6?), maybe this bench policy will change. But the Eels have faded in the second half against both Storm and Sharks, and one has to wonder if the smarts from the coaching box have really picked the right strategy for the early season bench rotation?

A final word on last week: the Eels lost the possession and territory count in the first half but won them in the second half. Yet while the Eels in that second half won tackle busts 18/11, offloads 8/4, linebreaks 3/1, and tackles in opposition 20m 17/7, their completion rate declined from H1 86% to H2 65% (9 errors). Maybe running your starting forwards into the ground is “effort” but it does not appear to be smart.

The Stats Don’t Lie.

The Eels made the 2022 Grand Final but have started 0-2 in in 2023. What do the stats say about such a poor start?

First, ‘local’ stats: those isolating just the Eels’ record when starting 0-2, results in about a 50/50 chance of finals vs spoon. Put differently, when the Eels start 0-2 they either get the spoon or make the finals, with the sole exception being a Tigers finish in 2003 (9^th). Toss a coin and strap in, folks.

But second, ‘global’ stats, looking at NRL-era figures pertaining to grand final teams with poor starts the following year. After the Sharks game I poured a drink, and yes it may have become two or three, and compiled the statistics. I thank Excel and my favourite cocktail for the following.

The NRL era began in 1998, after the Super League vs Australian Rugby League year of 1997. I looked at what happened to the two Grand Finalists in each year 1998-2022, in the opening two games of the following season. I tracked the outcomes for 25 x 2 teams for 1998-2022 (50), but also included the four (4) GF teams from the split SL and ARL competition from 1997 (Brisbane beat Sharks, and Knights beating Manly). I included the 1997 results so that I could include 1998 accurately in the 1998-2022 count.

Thus, my teams were n=54.

The full data set is below, and stats geeks or just the curious can (hopefully) replicate my results if so inclined.

The main columns to pay attention to (above) are the 4^th and 5^th from the left, where you can see the Rounds 1 and 2 results for GF winner and loser in the following year. If either team started worse than 0-2, I indicated that as well. Isolating the 0-2 starters, we get the table below.

I identified eight (8) teams 1998-2023 who began the following season 0-2. The Eels’ 2023 start is a minority outcome: only 15% of grand finalists have started the following season 0-2. However, all eight grand finalists with 0-2 starts the following season have gone on to make the finals. Though only two teams made the Top 4.

Yet none made the grand final after their 0-2 start, with one exception: Manly (2008) on the back of top-2 defence and attack.

Manly lost the 2007 GF to the Storm and began 2008 poorly (0-2). Yet Manly finished equal first in 2008 (tied with Storm, minor premiers on differential) and went on to beat the Storm in the 2008 GF. Manly then also began 2009 poorly (0-4), before finishing 5^th but not making the 2009 GF (where the cheating Storm beat the Eels). It is thus with deep irony that the Eels go into Round 3 at 0-2 versus Manly, the team whose historical turnaround the Eels will want to emulate in 2023.

Another stat: from 27 grand final losers 1997-2022, only 9 (33%) have failed to make the finals the following year. Only two grand final winners have failed to make the finals the following year: the 2004 Dogs finished 12^th in 2005, and the 2005 Chooks finished 11^th in 2006. The Storm collected the spoon in 2010 after being docked competition points but would have finished 5^th. Overall, only 12/54 teams making the grand final have failed to make the Top 8 the following year: 22%.

Unfortunately for Eels fans, after losing the GF to the cheating Storm in 2009, the Eels began 2010 poorly, slumping to 1-4 to start the season before crashing out of finals contention to finish 12^th. Did those 2010 Eels face the kind of tough draw with which the Eels open 2023: Storm, Sharks, Manly, Panthers and Chooks. Manly finished 2022 in 11^th spot, but the other four all made the 2022 finals and are expected to do so again in 2023. The Eels of 2010 played Dragons (minor premiers 2009), Manly, Tigers, Sharks, and Raiders (latter four not making the 2009 finals (Raiders got the spoon)). The only Eels victory was against … Manly.

Which brings us … back to frikkin’ Manly again. The Eels’ record at 4 Pines/Brookvale is not stellar.

We can probably also expect a high-scoring affair.

While the Eels’ recent record against Manly has been reasonable, Eels fans would recall most of the games to have been see-sawing affairs and some demoralizing losses.

Indeed, note Manly have troubled the Eels defensively, in the past six games (2020-2022), regardless of who won or lost: 19-16 (W), 18-22 (L), 6-28 (L), 10-56 (L), 22-20 (W), 36-20 (W).

The Bottom Line

We started with the line from Great Expectations, “ask no questions, and you’ll be told no lies”. Declining to ask questions is not a route to turning things around, so we asked: just how ominous is this 0-2 start? Not as bad as you think. All past grand finalists who started the season 0-2 went on to make the finals. Most grand final losers miss the Top 4 but make the Top 8. Our Round 3 opponent Manly offers a model of redemption. Manly lost the 2007 GF, started 0-2 in 2008, before finishing equal first and beating the Storm in the 2008 GF. Indeed, Manly even started 2009 poorly, falling to 0-4 before finishing 5^th. The finals still beckon. Ironically, the Eels need to do a Manly. Here we go again, Manly and Parra, and we all have great expectations.