Eels Blogs

The struggling Eels host their oldest rival, the high-flying Hounds. The Dogs piled on 40 points last week, while the Eels concede over 40 points per game to date. The result seems a formality for pundits. Can we dare to dream?

Image produced by the Eels' club.

It’s the 157th game between the Eels (17th, last) vs Bulldogs (3rd)
Date/Venue: Sunday, 23 March 2025, 4.05pm AEDT, CommBank Stadium
Sportsbet:  Dogs $1.37, Eels $3.11
Referees:  Wyatt Raymond, Phil Henderson (touch judge), Gerard Sutton (bunker, senior review official)

Team Lists

Eels: 1. Isaiah Iongi 21. Josh Addo-Carr  3. Viliami Penisini 4. Zac Lomax 5. Jordan Samrani 6. Dylan Brown 7. Dean Hawkins  10. Junior Paulo 22. Joey Lussick 12. Jack Williams 16. Kitione Kautoga 11. Shaun Lane  13. J’maine Hopgood
Bench: 8. Joe Ofahengaue 14. Ryley Smith 15. Matt Doorey  17. Sam Tuivaiti
18th man/extended: 19. Joash Papali’i (played NSW Cup at fullback), Cut: 2. Sean Russell 18. Ryan Matterson 20. Dan Keir 

Notes:  Josh Addo-Carr comes in for Russell. Lussick comes in for Brendan Hands who has been dropped for being below expectations. Dean Hawkins comes in for Ronald Volkman who has been dropped to NSW. Kitione Kautoga starts pushing Williams to prop and Ofahengaue to the bench. Ryan Matterson has not made the top squad for two weeks in succession. Bailey Simonsson returns in NSW Cup in the centres. 

 
Dogs: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Blake Wilson 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Bailey Hayward 7. Toby Sexton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Josh Curran  13. Jaeman Salmon  12. Jacob Preston 16. Daniel Suluka-Fifita
Bench: 11. Sitili Tupouniua 14. Kurt Mann 15. Harry Hayes  17. Kurtis Morrin
18th man/Extended bench: 19. Joseph O’Neill  Cut: 20. Jack Todd 21. Blake Taaffe 22. Luke Smith  23. Jonathan Sua 

Notes: Ins: Blake Taaffe, Daniel Suluka-Fifita, Jack Todd, Jonathan Sua, Joseph O'Neill, Kurtis Morrin Outs: Matt Burton, Viliame Kikau

After the first two rounds, Sportsbet dropped the Eels in their futures betting from a mid-range 10th placing to wooden spoon favorites. The Dogs are 6th favorite at $18 (behind Storm, Broncos, Penrith, Sharks, Manly).

Stat Attack

• The Eels have only won 4 of the last 20 games (20%); in contrast, the Dogs have won 14 from the last 20 games (70%). In that period, the Eels concede the most points of all teams in the competition, and the Dogs sit as third-best for defence (behind the Panthers and Sharks).
• The Eels have conceded 88 points in their opening two games - the worst defence in the competition.
• The Eels have won four of their past five games against the Bulldogs.
• The Bulldogs have won only 2 of their last 16 games at CommBank Stadium.
• Bulldogs halfback Toby Sexton will make his 50th NRL appearance.
• Eels winger Josh Addo-Carr has scored eight tries in six games against the Bulldogs.
  
  

The last two seasons sit within a broader context: a consistent downward trend since 2020. Five years ago.

Post 2020, the Eels defence, a barometer of attitude and more, has consistently declined. Year on year. Like clockwork. 13th (2018 spoon), 7th (2019 rebuild), 3rd (2020 peak), 4th (2021), 8th (2022), 11th (2023), 16th (2024), 17th (R1-R2, 2025 rebuild).

In a sense, the 2022 grand final, where we came good a few weeks from the finals after numerous hidings (and on the back of a forward pass in the preliminary final against the Cowboys) wall-papered over the hairline cracks that began earlier.

The tipping point seemed to happen around round seven last year against the Dolphins (where they obliterated us to score 40 points in 30 minutes after the Eels led 10-4 early in the second half); a few weeks before Arthur's axing.

Since then, the Eels have only won 4 / 20 (18%) to have the worst defence of all teams (conceding 33.4 per game). In stark contrast, the Dogs have won 14 / 20 games (70%) with the third best defence (conceding 18.2 per game).

In light of our highly disappointing start this season, I picked the brain of a former international who played the game at elite levels for over a decade and wishes to remain anonymous. He believes the Eels’ aging senior players contracted during Arthur’s reign had been declining for some time, out of pace with the modern game and at the wrong end of their careers - alongside younger players who are now at the beginning of their career. It's lead to a softer pack, compromises depth, and has caused a Mercurian imbalance that will take time to sort out.

Without Moses we've been rudderless and have one of the least experienced spines in the competition. It offers a touch over 180 NRL games to the Dogs' spine of over 300 NRL games even without Burton. But take out Dylan and between Smith (2), Iongi (3), Hawkins (14), and Hands (40) we sit shy of 60 NRL games.

While some of the squad has declined south, the pace of the game has sped up far north adding more curry-belly. For R1-R2 this year almost 50 points were scored per game. A huge leap on recent seasons: 2019 (35.9), 2020 (35.4), 2021 (38), 2022 (33.6), 2023 (36.8), 2024 (39.3), 2025 (48.4). If this trend continues, it will likely exacerbate blowouts even more than we have seen in recent seasons. 

Hello, Chicken Little. Old friend.

Essentially, Ryles had no choice but to rebuild.

The painful changes Ryles referred to in both his post-game pressors point to the inevitable. And where we're at right now. 

Ryles has had one off-season to start the rebuild to start his first year in 2025. But it's not comparable to Ciraldo's first year that had many questioning his coaching creditials (Dogs in 2023 were 3rd last, 769 points conceded, with the worst defence).

The difference being is we could expect a worse case. Why? Our decline has almost hit rock bottom but their rebuild started three off-seasons before Ciraldo's first year. It started in 2021 under Gus Gould (all orchestrated not by Druissi, but the previous Chairman who also kept the Laudry Group on board). Gus even told Ciraldo to delay coming in 2023 as he hadn't finished with the rebuild. Ryles on the other hand is starting from day dot. Kudos.  In our favour though, is we're not rebuilding the entire squad like Gus did in record time. 2025 might be Ciraldo's third year, but it's the fifth year of the Gus rebuild (five off-seasons).

There are plenty of morals to this story. You can't build the right systems without the right players and people on board. It's unlikely to happen overnight. And the hounds will come for you.

Tellingly and encouragingly, our most promising players in an anus horribilis year to date, have largely been new recruits and debutants. The likes of Isaiah Iongi, Jack Williams, Zac Lomax (a BA recruit), Ryley Smith, Sam Tuivaiti, and Jordan Samrani have shown promise. Joash Papali’i also looks a real goer. We need the Fox badly need for his experience and on-field communication - something missing in the first two rounds. It suggests hope that the new culture and player Ryles is looking for could work out in the long run, even if we can't be sure yet.

This hotpot reminds me of my much-loved old koi pond. Early on I learnt that changing too much of the existing pond water too quickly caused some of the more sensitive koi to go stir-crazy and even jump out. They needed a lot of love.

Ryles' rebuild is akin to rebuilding the hole in the bridge Arthur didn't see as the locomotive steam train, building up speed, running full pelt at Milla Jovovich in The Lost Lands, unwittingly heads for impending disaster. Hindsight Heroism is an easy way out though.

The other difference between Gus' top-down approach in the Dogs' rebuild and ours is in our marriage vows for better or worse. We're committed to Ryles' and his R&R strategies and development programs - and he has the strongest voice in the football department. It's much like the Panthers' collaborative principles, as elucidated by Matt Cameron.

"The single biggest thing about ‘Project 2015’ [led to their title-winning dynasty 2021-2024] was alignment and that was talking to Ivan [Cleary] and understanding what he looks for in a player and aligning our recruitment strategies with what the head coach was looking for; aligning our developing programs with what the head coach was looking for,"  Cameron told the Weekender last year.

There's much for Ryles to do and the club in support. Our pack, once the cornerstone of Arthur's front-loaded "chasing the collision" era at the expense of speed and mobility is now a shadow of itself. Ryles has to rebuild it with mongrel as quickly as possible along with the spine urgently.

Wayne Bennett once quipped  “if you have a team full of choir boys you’ll win nothing”.And that's why he recruited Brandon Smith for some mongrel and punch in the pack despite his off-field antics that are on the nose for many clubs not just the Roosters. Supposedly, Bennett knows how to tame the wild ones according to Tallis as he is asleep by 8pm to let the larrikans live. Bennett doesn't believe players should be cast as societal role models. He choses shorter-term Winning-First before potential longer-term risks to Club-Cultural Ideology. It's a reason Bennett often leaves a club in its wake once he departs. 

That also highlights another of the challenges facing Ryles admidst his noble Club-First, Team-First, Pride of the Community ideology. Which one will take precedence? It's the almighty challenge trying to reset a football club and rebuild a winning team. An alignment that can take a decade as the Panthers found with all the right pieces with some help from Gus, or strong privatisation in the case of the Storm's alignment top-to-toe.

The bottom line is regardless of all the moving wheels and balls in the air - collectively our run on side - needs more pack-hunting mongrel, urgency, line speed, a proper kick chase and better off-the-ball work along with improved communication, smarts and game-management. Until then, we'll continue to struggle. Here's hoping things turn the corner in the near future.