UPDATE: Latrell out, Cody Walker on bench, Iongi is named at Six but may play at fullback, Hawkins is out
The Eels are now hot favourites following the news of Latrell Mitchell being an out. They lose their primary weapon of destruction. But history suggests we still need to be weary.
Since 2017, the Eels have beaten Souths outside Parramatta just once leaking an average 40 points a game. Over the last nine meetings, they’ve managed only a single win in 2023.
They have won almost every Indigenous Round (9 of 11), while the Eels less than half (5 of 11). Souths also have the wood on the Eels (3 of 4) for their Indigenous Round clashes.
Both sides come off nail-biters last week. The Eels edged the Cowboys 19–18, while Souths snapped a nine-game losing streak with a 22–20 win over the Titans, boosted by the return of Latrell Mitchell and Humpreys.
Souths will be fired up, not just for the occasion, backs-to-the-walls, but also for Alex Johnston, who needs three tries to equal Ken Irvine’s premiership record.
Expect drama, but perhaps with less fireworks. Let's trot.
Team Lists
Souths v Eels, Saturday, 16 August 2025, 7:35pm AEST, Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Weather: Windy 20-25kmh, earlier rain, coolish 10-11C, 50% humidity
Sportsbet: Eels $1.63, Souths $2.28. Now, Eels $1.43, Souths $2.84 with news Latrell is out.
Referees: Gerard Sutton (on-field), Matt Noyen (bunker), Drew Oultram & Kasey Badger (touch judges)
| Souths: | Eels: |
|
1. Jye Gray Cut: 3. Latrell Mitchell, 19. Lewis Dodd, 20. Salesi Ataata 21. Haizyn Mellars
|
1. Joash Papali’i Cut: 19. Dan Keir, 20. Haze Dunster, 22. Toni Mataele 6. Dean Hawkins |
| Coach: W Bennett |
Coach: J Ryles
|
|
Ins: Shaquai Mitchell , Cody Walker (returning from a hamstring injury) |
Ins: Isaiah Iongi (returning from a hand injury) Outs: 6Dean Hawkins |
Holding the Torch
Souths will honour Indigenous icons, with Olympic gold medallist Cathy Freeman ringing the Legacy Bell alongside Greg Inglis. Tallis Duncan reflected.
“[Freeman’s gold medal] is something you learn about growing up. The run is amazing but then you learn what was behind it… to meet her is pretty special.”
Getty Image: Freeman with Inglis after Souths' 2014 grand final victory.
Random Stats
This century, the Eels have only beaten Souths once when trailing at half-time. It was back in 2010, down 2–8.
Mitchell Matters. During this year and last year's rough seasons for Souths: When he doesn’t play they win 25% (5 of 20). When he plays they win 38% (9 of 24). They score more, and concede less when he plays.
Edge Battles
On the Cusp of History. Alex Johnston has scored 18 tries in 15 games against the Eels. He will test the Eels right edge.
Souths have the third-most lethal left edge and will target the Eels’ right edge. A weakness the Cowboys exploited last week for all their three tries. Humphreys may use short kicks, a tactic that’s worked for the Storm and the Cowboys. Papali’i should brace for aerial raids.
Souths’ left edge is also the second-most leaky, giving Moses a chance to hit Lomax, Guymer or Penisini. MOMAX time? Their right edge isn’t much better: another Fox double?
Flying Fox: Addo-Carr has 14 tries in 14 games.
Defensive Trends
Souths have missed more tackles than any team this season and rank second-worst for ineffective ones (nearly 40 a game). The Eels aren’t far behind for missed tackles, sixth-worst, yet have shown resilience.
Last week Souths defended patiently, sliding well and forcing the Titans towards the sideline. The Eels will need to be more direct and use variation, not just sweeping coast-to-coast.
In the Middle
The ruck battle looms large. Ryley Smith has been a standout with Tallyn Da Silva still finding his feet in our systems. Expect Brandon Smith around the 20-minute mark for punch. He made a telling bust last week despite some rust.
Final Word
Souths are a different side without Latrell, a far weaker one with less fireworks, even with Humphreys and Brandon Smith back. But will we see trainers act as extra players and fullbacks? High shots on Papali'i go unpunished? A Moses spray? Who will score more: The Fox or AJ?
Moses’ captaincy will be crucial, leaning on Paulo, Williams, Lomax, Hopgood and Addo-Carr. Also, the Eels must cut errors as that almost cost them against the Cowboys and Broncos or give Souths a way in.
Missing Mitchell is Massive. Souths are long odds. But history suggests we shouldn't write Souths off completely. Add Indigenous pride, Johnston’s milestone, back-to-the-walls fight, and Souths may rise to the occasion against all odds.
Strap your seatbelts on.
Eels celebrate last week's close encounter against the Cowboys.
Spoon alert Sportsbet: Titans ($1.91), Knights ($2.88), Souths ($5.50), Eels ($23), Cowboys ($71), St George ($251)
Replies
LB i dont accept we were off our game last week, i reckon Cow's were on and we rose to the occasion. Have a look at the completions!
We were still fine but a little off and still won. If we played how we did v NQ i don't think we beat Brisbane. But it is something i guess we can never full measure and is based on opinion.
Cowboys got 2 tries in that 2nd half from our mistakes.
Cows lifted dramatically R23, but like us, played more conservatively. Probably to reign in errors for better ball control.
R22 —Completions Eels 68%, Cows 68%, 14 errors.
R23—Completions Eels 81%, Cows 95% , errors 11-4 . The 16 penalities slowed the game too and helped that equation.
The one certainty is that there will be long passes to Johnston from Latrell. I would be alert for an intercept just inside Johnston (with a bit of cover defence just in case)
No there won't, Latrell's not playing.
Joey, PT wrote that before it was confirmed Latrell was out.
Nevertheless, they'll still attack our right edge without Latrell where the most points get scored against us.Cows and Storm had some success there.
I expect a Humphrey's short kicks or grubbers too behind the line for AJ or Duncan. Pap will get a workout there.
The only threat to us in this game is US.
If we play and execute I think we have a field day against these jokers.
If we want a side like South's like we did last week against the Cows and cough up cheap ball then well the game can go either way.Make no mistake we are and have been the better side the last 2 weeks we need to embrace that and learn to win games we should.
The only pressure here is all on us as above if we execute and do the basics correctly we'll win and win well..
Good point, Coryn.
Despite last week's deserved win and our resilience, we still made enough errors (11 vs Cows 4) to lose it.
Dogs lost to Roosters & Tigers making 11 & 14 errors — our norm.
We've made 70 errors in 5 weeks.
I've changed my thought process about this team this year results are only important to an extent.Yes avoiding the spoon is a must but we must see progression which we are hence why the results aren't as important as they are going foward.
The next thing now it seems we've avoided the spoon is continued roster evolvement and continued improvement in our structures.If we continue down this line next year showing continued improvement I think we'll be in a position to have a tilt at the title in 27
Interesting, Coryn. I'm still leaning towards your first thought. Remember what Ryles said in a post-game pressor, "The scoreboard is the last thing to change."
Let's look at timelines and context.
Off-season: Commit to Kaizen. Constant improvement: Muralized in dressing rooms and COE.
First game. Horror Show. 6-46 First half. 18-56 loss to Storm.
Lose 4-straight but some improvement from first game.
Early season: open COE.
R1-R10 — Shaky. 17th, 2 from 9, concede 50-plus twice.
R11-R23 — Kaizen. 13th, 5 from 11, concede 40 once. All that emotional, mental and physical investment seems to be starting to pay off.
A losing finish?
That would be a body blow. A spoon would set us back. Regression. Not just in results, but in the spirit of Kaizen. It would say to the players: “All your hard work didn’t get you there in the end."
And that the climax of our story, Improvement and Kaizen, would end at R23. Just short. With a fall. Mentally, that hits hard.
As Brian McDermott emphasized in Coaching the Coaches: culture is not an excuse for losing. And that’s my deepest fear.
They need to dig deep, push through exhaustion, mentally, physically. Going the extra mile here isn’t just a win on the scoreboard. It’s a win for the entire club. A statement. Proof that Kaizen works. Proof that improvement never stops.
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