UPDATE: Souths won 20-16. The Boogeyman strikes again. They rose to the occasion. Gray-Duncan starred. Eels completed at 70%, made more errors 17-7, made more linebreaks 9-6, made less missed tackles than Souths. Eels — 87 errors in 6 weeks. Our own worst enemy.

 

The Eels are now hot favourites following the news of Latrell Mitchell being an out. They lose their primary weapon of destruction. But history suggests we still need to be weary. 

Since 2017, the Eels have beaten Souths outside Parramatta just once leaking an average 40 points a game. Over the last nine meetings, they’ve managed only a single win in 2023.

They have won almost every Indigenous Round (9 of 11), while the Eels less than half (5 of 11). Souths also have the wood on the Eels (3 of 4) for their Indigenous Round clashes.

Both sides come off nail-biters last week. The Eels edged the Cowboys 19–18, while Souths snapped a nine-game losing streak with a 22–20 win over the Titans, boosted by the return of Latrell Mitchell and Humpreys.

Souths will be fired up, not just for the occasion, backs-to-the-walls, but also for Alex Johnston, who needs three tries to equal Ken Irvine’s premiership record. 

Expect drama, but perhaps with less fireworks. Let's trot.

Team Lists

Souths v Eels, Saturday, 16 August 2025, 7:35pm AEST, Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Weather: Windy 20-25kmh, earlier rain, coolish 10-11C, 50% humidity
Sportsbet: Eels $1.63, Souths $2.28.  Now, Eels $1.43, Souths $2.84 with news Latrell is out.
Referees: Gerard Sutton (on-field), Matt Noyen (bunker), Drew Oultram & Kasey Badger (touch judges)

Souths: Eels:

1. Jye Gray
2. Alex Johnston
4. Isaiah Tass
5. B. Bentley-Hape
18. Tyrone Munro 
6. Ashton Ward
7. Jamie Humphreys
8. Siliva Havili
9. Peter Mamouzelos
10. Sean Keppie
11. Jacob Host
12. Tallis Duncan
13. Jai Arrow
Bench:
15. Liam Le Blanc
16. Brandon Smith
17. Thomas Fletcher
22. Cody Walker
18th man:
14. Shaquai Mitchell

Cut: 3.Latrell Mitchell
19. Lewis Dodd,
20. Salesi Ataata
21. Haizyn Mellars

 

1. Joash Papali’i
2. Zac Lomax
3. Viliami Penisini
4. Dylan Brown
5. Josh Addo-Carr
21. Isaiah Iongi 
7. Mitchell Moses
8. J’maine Hopgood
9. Ryley Smith
10. Junior Paulo
17. Kelma Tuilagi  
12. Jack Williams
13. Luca Moretti
Bench:
14. Tallyn Da Silva
15. Dylan Walker
11.Charlie Guymer 
16. Matt Doorey
18th Man:
18. Jordan Samrani

Cut: 19. Dan Keir
20. Haze Dunster
22. Toni Mataele 
6. Dean Hawkins 

Coach: W Bennett

Coach: J Ryles

 

Ins: Shaquai Mitchell,
Cody Walker (returning
from a hamstring injury)
Outs: Lachlan Hubner (head)

Ins: Isaiah Iongi (returning
from a hand injury)
Outs: Dean Hawkins

 

 Latrell out, Cody Walker on bench, Iongi is named at Six but may play at fullback, Hawkins is out.

Holding the Torch 

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Souths will honour Indigenous icons, with Olympic gold medallist Cathy Freeman ringing the Legacy Bell alongside Greg Inglis.  Tallis Duncan reflected.

“[Freeman’s gold medal] is something you learn about growing up. The run is amazing but then you learn what was behind it… to meet her is pretty special.”

 

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Getty Image: Freeman with Inglis after Souths' 2014 grand final victory.

 

Random Stats

This century, the Eels have only beaten Souths once when trailing at half-time. It was back in 2010, down 2–8.

Mitchell Matters. During this year and last year's rough seasons for Souths: When he doesn’t play they win 25% (5 of 20). When he plays they win 38% (9 of 24). They score more, and concede less when he plays.

 

Edge Battles

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On the Cusp of History. Alex Johnston has scored 18 tries in 15 games against the Eels. He will test the Eels right edge.

Souths have the third-most lethal left edge and will target the Eels’ right edge. A weakness the Cowboys exploited last week for all their three tries. Humphreys may use short kicks, a tactic that’s worked for the Storm and the Cowboys. Papali’i should brace for aerial raids.

Souths’ left edge is also the second-most leaky, giving Moses a chance to hit Lomax, Guymer or Penisini. MOMAX time? Their right edge isn’t much better: another Fox double?

13676230292?profile=RESIZE_710x

 Flying Fox: Addo-Carr has 14 tries in 14 games.

Defensive Trends

Souths have missed more tackles than any team this season and rank second-worst for ineffective ones (nearly 40 a game). The Eels aren’t far behind for missed tackles, sixth-worst, yet have shown resilience.

Last week Souths defended patiently, sliding well and forcing the Titans towards the sideline. The Eels will need to be more direct and use variation, not just sweeping coast-to-coast.

 

13676241268?profile=RESIZE_710x

In the Middle

The ruck battle looms large. Ryley Smith has been a standout with Tallyn Da Silva  still finding his feet in our systems. Expect Brandon Smith around the 20-minute mark for punch. He made a telling bust last week despite some rust.

13676240662?profile=RESIZE_710x

Final Word

Souths are a different side without Latrell, a far weaker one with less fireworks, even with Humphreys and Brandon Smith back. But will we see trainers act as extra players and fullbacks? High shots on Papali'i go unpunished? A Moses spray? Who will score more: The Fox or AJ?

Moses’ captaincy will be crucial, leaning on Paulo, Williams, Lomax, Hopgood and Addo-Carr. Also, the Eels must cut errors as that almost cost them against the Cowboys and Broncos or face the consequences.

Missing Mitchell is Massive. Souths are long odds. But history suggests we shouldn't write Souths off completely. Add Indigenous pride, Johnston’s milestone, back-to-the-walls fight, and Souths may rise to the occasion against all odds. 

Strap your seatbelts on.
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Eels celebrate last week's close encounter against the Cowboys.

Spoon alert Sportsbet: Titans ($1.91), Knights ($2.88), Souths ($5.50), Eels ($23), Cowboys ($71), St George ($251)

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  • If we can aim up for the 80 mins and limit errors then we are right up there. We simply need to kick well, kick long and short! Turn them around - play up tempo; and limit their time in our red zone. 
    We can win this. 

  • We should win this. But with Sutton reffing and its indigenous round Cathy and Greg there the nrl will be having a massive jizz in their pants over souths. Sutton to absolutely cane us with the 6 agsins and penalties

  • This is one of those games we should win easily.

    In the past, that would equal a guaranteed loss.

    Let's hope that Ryles has knocked that complacency from former years out of their heads.

  • Thanks HOE. For showing how much of a bogey team the Bunnies have been for the Eels! I think all of us were absolutely sick and tired of the Bunnies exploiting BA's defensive up-and-in system, which always seemed to let the Bunnies run right around us on the flanks. If that changes I will be happy.

    Statsinsider says the Bunnies are the mos left-side-dominant attacking unit in the NRL: the ratio is 68/12/20 (percent) for tries scored on the left, middle and right. Oddly, the other teams left-dominant - of 50%+ scored on their left side and sub-30% on the right - are all banana-benders (Broncos (52%), Dolphins (57%) and Cowboys (52%). The Knights are 55/8/38 which kind of just shows they lack middle punch.

    But 68% scored on the left is  . . . are the Bunnies just soooooo dangerous on the left or just really hopeless middle and right? I say hopeless, because the Bunnies have the second WORST attacking record (the Eels are the 3rd worst attack). The Bunnies go to their 'strength', which is not that strong, but heh, when they do fluke scoring it is on the left?

    Statsinsider shows the Eels are a balanced but low-octane attack. The Eels scoring spread is 42/11/47 (percent) on the left, middle and right. Only the Knights (8%) are worse middle scorers than the Eels (Warriors tied at 11%). We could say the Eels are hopeless through the middle for scoring but balanced otherwise. The Eels are low-octane attackers, 3rd worst attack, but the eye test says the Eels string together enough enterprising play to trouble even the best sides. But error rates and lack of finish kills the Eels. 

    Note the Eels concede 51% of our tries on our right side (Penisini/Lomax out wide), where that Bunnies left-side attack will obviously go. Whereas the Bunnies concede 48% on their own right side where Brown/Fox will attack.

    It is totally putting the wood on the poor (young) Eels but the Eels SHOULD beat this Bunnies team. Failure to do so will provoke some questions about execution of plays and ability to perform week-in and week-out, as the Eels have been fairly decent since Round 11 (beat Knights 28-6 early May).

    Since Round 10 the Eels have played 11 games and their record has been 5 wins, 6 losses and 2 byes. Their only real shocker was the R17 loss to the Dragons where the went 4-26 down at half time (losing 20-34). They fell away late against Dogs, Panthers and Raiders but were in those games, including the recent narrow loss to Storm. And we cannot forget their upset of the Broncos.

    Compare that to the Bunnies, who since Round 10 have played 11 ganmes and had 2 wins, 9 losses and 2 byes. The Bunnies were in their games against Dogs R15 and Storm R16 but conceded 50 in R17 (Dolphins) and 64 in R22 (Broncos). Like the Eels the bunnies are last up winners (Titans).

    The Eels are unarguably in the better form and less players out.

    A loss is unacceptable for the Eels.

    • Exactly, Daz. Well said.

      And PTSD. We were tailor made for Souths.

      I remember weekly screenshots of Sivo (or any winger) covering 30-odd metres on their own with our middles & rucks compressed & laterally challenged. 

  • Great write up HOE. Hopefully we win easy!

    • Thanks, Darren. Too kind mate. Fingers crossed. Being hot favorites probably has its own pressure.

  • We should win, but it will be close due to how Parra play.

    In our last 3 games we have strongly dominated for periods of the game, but failed to turn that dominance into points. I think we panic a bit go for the one percenters and come up with errors.

    Opposition take advantage and put on points.

    Walker is our best ball player, he offers more then both our halfs in attack. Problem is his only playing 50/60 minutes. Moses kicking game is brilliant but so is his running game start using it. Also take more control when we're in their red zone.

    Hawkins, great back up half but not a permanent first grade six.

    I hope Ilongi plays in the one and Joash goes to the six.

    Yes think we will win but Souths will make it tight. Eels by 4.

  • Shout out to @Chiefy. If my memory serves me correctly, which is a huge assumption, you suggested Iongi could be the mystery smokie at six that Rylesy alluded to. Named there. Will he play there though?

  • Will be interesting to see how Iongi at #6 and Papalii at #1 goes, if that's in fact what Ryles has in store. IF it plays out that way, does that suggest Ryles wants to trial as many at #6 as he can? That motive has to be part of dropping Hawkins for the game?

This reply was deleted.

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