Eels Blogs

In the movie Sliding Doors (1998), Helen (Gwyneth Paltrow) is fired and goes home early, but in a parallel timelines twist, we are treated to two different scenarios. In Scenario A she catches a train and busts her boyfriend cheating, and in Scenario B she misses the train, does not catch him cheating, though eventually discovers his infidelity regardless. Round 24 against the Broncos is a sliding doors moment for the Eels. A victory secures 4^th, 5^th or 6^th on the ladder. A loss consigns the Eels to the potential to fall out of the Top 8 altogether if they lose to the Storm in R25 and other results go against them. If the Eels do not take this Round 24 chance to control their own fate, they may end up like Helen in Sliding Doors. Ultimately Helen is vacuous, and each scenario is pointless and uninteresting because the movie is just not smart. Gwyneth was easily able to embody all of that if you follow my drift. An Eels loss would leave a similarly empty feeling, for fans but possibly players too? In Sliding Doors, Helen’s love interest in Scenario B is James, who at one point tells her “nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition”. But Eels fans expect the Spanish Inquisition. From Monty Python’s Flying Circus (1971), we know the chief weapons of the inquisitors are fear, surprise, ruthless efficiency, fanatical dedication to the Pope, and nice red uniforms. The Eels are playing a team in somewhat red uniforms, who surprisingly flogged the Eels 36-14 in Round 19, leaving everyone doubting the Eels’ capacity for ruthless efficiency. Which door will the Eels pass through on Thursday night, Scenario A (secure a finals spot) or Scenario B (dogfight to stay in the Top 8)? Welcome to Round 24.

Teams

Thursday 25 August, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, 7:50pm (AEDT). Lands of the Turrubal and Yuggera People. Referee: Grant Atkins.

Eels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Tom Opacic 5. Waqa Blake 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali'i 13. Ryan Matterson 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Jakob Arthur 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Marata Niukore 18. Ofahiki Ogden 19. Bailey Simonsson 20. Bryce Cartwright 21. Sean Russell 22. Ky Rodwell

Head coach: Brad Honestly Arthur.

Broncos: 1. Te Maire Martin 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Brenko Lee 5. Jordon Pereira 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Jake Turpin 10. Payne Haas 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jordan Riki 13. Corey Jensen 14. Billy Walters 15. Kobe Hetherington 16. Keenan Palasia 17. Zac Hosking.

Head coach: Kevin Bloody Walters.

Notes: in a move sure to receive rousing cheers, Jacob Arthur replaces Bryce Cartwright on the bench. Because Carty had played well in the middle against the Dogs (18 minutes, 9 runs for 85m and 34 post-contact, 6 tackles, 1 missed tackle)? Makatoa returns from whatever that stint in reggies was supposed to do, replacing Ogden. Because Ogden must be tired (12 minutes, 7 tackles, no missed tackles, 5 runs for 47m)? Will Niukore start at lock again? I am constantly reminded that Matterson gained an SOO1 berth on the back of the form he displayed when coming off the bench as an impact player. For the Broncos, some late changes: Jensen replacing James at lock, Palasia replacing Kennedy on the bench, and Hosking being elevated into the 17. Brenko Lee has just returned at centre, and in a very late change, Cobbo withdrew from the game, citing being a big baby, and Jordan Pereira is in on the wing.

Observations from Last Week

Eels (vs Dogs), 42-6 (W), 54% possession, 73% completion rate, 10 line breaks, 30 tackle breaks, 16 offloads, 13 missed tackles, 30 ineffective tackles, 14 errors, 5 penalties conceded, 0 inside 10 meters, 2 ruck infringements, 0 sin bin.

Broncos (vs Storm), 12-60 (L), 37% possession, 67% completion rate, 3 line breaks, 24 tackle breaks, 4 offloads, 66 missed tackles, 18 ineffective tackles, 15 errors, 3 penalties conceded, 2 inside 10 meters, 1 ruck infringements, 0 sin bins.

Eels/Dogs highlights HERE.

Broncos/Storm highlights HERE.

The Dogs made the first break of the game (Eels right side of course), and scored the first points (2 pts, penalty goal), before the Eels scored in the 10^th minute and 15^th minutes of H1 to lead 12-2. It would not really be an Eels game unless the Eels had a little siesta, with a few errors and penalties conceded resulting in the next 15 minutes being a little end-to-end. The Eels were defensively not troubled, until of course Waqa missed a tackle and the Dogs scored off a scrum in the 30^th minute to make it 12-6. This seemed to remind the Eels to keep playing, with Sivo scoring before half-time to make it 16-6, and in the second half the Eels did what they have often failed to do well in 2022: go on with it handsomely. The Mighty Eels scored five tries in the second half and, pleasingly, shut the Dogs out.  

PS: the Eels forwards all ran for 100+ meters except Paulo, whose form has been down, and the Eels will need him to rediscover it soon.

The Broncos … well all the cliches about no team winning the GF if they concede 50+ are in the picture now. The Broncos missed 66 tackles. The Broncos miss Carrigan, who does a lot of clean up work around the ruck. Will there be a ‘bounce back’ factor? Are the Broncos toast, their relative youth tiring toward the end of the season, epitomised by Selwyn Cobbo taking the game off for fatigue reasons, despite the Broncos being in danger of missing the Top 8 if they lose.

This is the way

There were three features of the Dogs game that the Eels need to bottle and replicate. One, what Brad says, about defensively chasing the collision. Two, what Brad says, about being mentally alert. One is physical, and we all know BA likes to reduce the game of Rugby League down to brass knuckle physicality. Hence all his metaphors for good play are about smashing into things. The other is preparation, and we all know BA says he often has no idea why the team stayed on the bus, forgot to show up, were out-enthused, etc. Notably, BA’s brain only appears to work in Physical Land, as the physicality side of the game is the only side he ever speaks confidently about. The Mental Land side is an enigma to Brad, signalled by the complete uncertainty about preparation noted above.

Seriously, Brad Arthur, if you ever read this stuff mate, just don’t ever, ever, ever quit your day job (footy coach) and try out for the psychology profession.

I said three features, so the other feature is Playing Smart. This aspect of the Eels’ play is rarely on show. No fan would hail BA a tactical genius. I have never heard a commentator praise a BA game plan. Nor have I ever heard BA admit they had a game plan, and it did or even did not work. Part of Playing Smart is, of course, NOT chasing the bloody collision. Line breaks are made when you target a place where there is no player with whom to collide (tackle breaks you have won that collision). Most grubbers if they lead to points aim for spaces where opposition players struggle to find themselves, but your own players do (witness the great interplay of grubber/receipt Moses and Brown pouty on against the Dogs). Line break assists are where your ball player puts a ball runner in a gap. Crash plays are chasing the collision and often we see the Eels over-using them in the red zone. 

Against the Dogs, I thought the Eels played smart. They correctly realized that JAC goes for hero intercepts and is often caught out of position and targeted his wing with quick shifts. The Eels also held their own width in defence most of the game, a departure from their normal Me Dumb I Jam in Every Time. But mostly, the Eels halves straightened the attack.

Moses and Brown straightened the Eels’ attack. Whether it was runs (Moses 11 for 88m), Brown 12 for 104m), grubbers (5 for Moses, 2 for Brown [Mahoney and Carty 1 each too]), bombs (3 for Moses, 2 for Brown), line break assists (2 each), try assists (2 each), offloads (1 each), or tackle breaks (3 for Moses, 2 for Brown), the Eels’ halves had their hands (and feet) all over the ball. More than just being involved, the Eels’ halves took the line on, which the Eels halves must do if their edge runners are to do some damage. The blueprint for a dangerous Eels’ attack is not just “run hard” and “be physical”. A truly dangerous blueprint must include the Eels’ halves playing smart, direct football that pulls defenders in, leaves our damaging forwards some space to run, and creates outside overlaps that good pass selection can exploit. It was just the Dogs, with all due respect (to them beating last time). But still, the Eels showed they can attack, if they get their halves play right. Or, as the Mandalorian would say, “this is the way”.

The Bottom Line

We win, we are in the Top 8 – 4^th, 5^th or 6^th – and can go into R25 against the Storm at home and confident. We lose, we could finish 9^th if results go against us in R25, or just sneak into 7-8^th on differential and some luck.

You can do the scenario analysis yourself, based on the Table.

The Eels should not leave their fate up to chance. It is not The Mandalorian Way and should not be the Eels’ way either. I am predicting … LOL like any of us know how they are going to play on any given day. But I am hoping the Eels flog these flogs and take their reigns by our teeth. Go Eels!

PS: mostly graphics-free this week as HOE is away due to personal matters. I also only realized at 10pm Wednesday that the Eels play 7pm Thursday. Doh!