Eels Blogs

In the Eels’ Friday night’s game at Suncorp Stadium, the Broncos are rightful favourites $1.65 to $2.20 and hungry to stay alive and in the top 8.

On the form showed last week the Broncos would win and probably by a safe margin. Last week both teams lost close, spiteful home matches, where all in brawls were teetering. Eels’ bubble was burst last week in a 12-6 loss against the Dogs, whilst Broncos lost a close game 22-20 to Souths. More importantly the Eels lost tailsman forward warrior Nathan Brown. But on a positive note: big bald Ferguson is back.

1. It’s been a while since both lost 2 or more straight: R11, R15

The Eels haven’t lost 2 straight since R11, against Penrith at Bankwest. Ironically, both loses to Penrith and the Dogs at Bankwest were to referee Grant Atkins, whom we have one of the worst records against (32%, only winning 8 games from 25). It’s good for us he’s not in this week’s game.

The Broncos meanwhile, haven’t lost 2 straight since R15, to the Knights 12-26 away.

Both teams have only lost twice in the last two months since late June, but the Eels have had the better form winning 8/11 whilst the Broncos have managed 5/8.

Also, the Eels have been in the eight all year whereas the Broncos have been out of the top-8 for most of the year (16 weeks) and only recently got back in, following their resurgence post R11.

2. The Eels have good recent record against the Broncos, but not at Suncorp: LLWL, 2 wins in 5 years.

The Eels do have a good recent record against the Broncos, having won the last 3 from 5 against the Broncos, including a 38-10 thumping win over the Broncos in R14 earlier this year at Bankwest, when they last met. This is despite the Eels being behind in their overall record to the Broncos in 57 games is 22W-2D-33L (38.6% win ratio).

The last time they met at Suncorp it was a close encounter where the Eels lost 18-10, in R12, 2018 - 3 tries to 2 – under Ashley Klein, whom is also on of this week’s on-field referees. That was our one and only loss under Klein playing the Broncos. We have won the last 4/5 against the Broncos under Klein, over 7 years. So a foul of Sivo, last like week, might not get missed this week. We hope.

The Eels don’t have a great recent record at Suncorp. LLWL: Losing the last 3 from the last 4, since 2015.

Indeed, the Eels have only won twice in 5 years.

The Eels last won at Suncorp 2 years ago: in R25 in 2017, in a 52-34 massacre (9 tries to 6). Before that the last time they won was in R5, 2014, 25-18, 4 tries to 3 tries. Junior Paulo was on the bench for that match and Ma’u was in the second row. In both those wins Semi scored tries (a total of 5) on the left side. So don’t be surprised if Sivo scores tomorrow night.

3. Suncorp is usually generous: under 30 points only twice in 21 years

In over 21 years, only twice has under 30 points been collectively scored, since 1988 in the 19 games both teams have played there: 18-10 (R12, 2018) as well as 16-8 (Broncos win in R21,1989).

The highest score has been a 54-34 win by the Eels in R25, 2017; 9 tries to 6. Semi scored 4 tries then and M Jennings 2. The Broncos have also scored some big wins with a 54-14 thumping in R5, 2005; 10 tries to 3, when Brian Smith was coaching and the Broncos were ahead 42-0 at halftime (their best half time score v Eels at Suncorp). There was also 40-16 Broncos thumping in R19, 1991 when Michael Cronin was coaching; 7 tries to 3. A 40-8 thumping in R7, 2009, when Daniel Anderson was coaching; 7 tries to 2 tries.

As such, pending the weather, it’s highly likely over 30 points will be scored.

4. Left, Right, Middle Analysis: Eels second phase play and Moses’ attacking boot needs to be on.

The Eels have outscored Broncos this year, hitherto: 82 tries to 68 tries, whilst both have conceded 75 tries.

However, last week, and at other times during the year, the Eels have struggled to score points (despite being the 4th best attacking unit) when pressured and rushed by an ‘attacking’ defence.

Last week, Moses’ attacking kicks didn’t come off. The second phase plays were fumbled. Moses’ combination with Ma’u was off tilt. The entire attack was off-tilt. Sivo could have scored up to 3 tries last week (including one that appeared to foul him in the air), but converted none of his chances.

At least the return of Fergo this week gives us two attacking geniuses on the wing now.

Looking at the stats of left, right, middle tries scored and conceded suggest tries could come from numerous places.

The Eels left side attack might have ample opportunites this week considering the Broncos right side defence hasn't been particularly good this year and their weakness (they have conceded 32 tries, 43%). Sivo, Lane, Dylan Brown, Gutho, and perhaps through Moses' kicking game might see tries on this side. It's most likely.

The Eels right side attack (equal first in tries scored) is still a danger to any side when on and Fergo's return might help, pending on how well his lack of match fitness holds up.

The stats suggest the Broncos right side attack (where they have scored 30/68, 44% of their tries) poses the greatest threat to us. However, our left side defence has conceded only 29% of tries scored against us (22/75) and is better than our right side conceding 44% (30/75). And we saw last week Gillet’s break on the right that set up a nail-bitting end, that almost snatched the game away from Souths.

Also, considering what lies on the Broncos left hand side – Fifita as well as the dangerous Oates – it’s the left side that we might need to be very weary of. Fifita scored 2 tries last week and had 17 tackle busts. Extraordinary. And that was against Souths’ right side which is defensively the 4th best in the competition (leaking 25/64, 39% of their tries). The Eels right side, on the other hand, leaks even more with the 7th best (conceding 30 tries, equal with Melbourne, astonishingly).

The Eels might have a few issues through the middle (where we are third worst in defence) – especially via Haas, who poses a big threat and could bust us open. Ge had 12 tackle busts in  is R22 and poses a major threat in the red zone and ruck area.

As such, Moses’ attacking kicks to be on this week and he will need to be composed this week as will out second phase play to score enough points. The Eels will need to hold onto offloads (3rd for most offloads) this week and take advantage of second phase play which is one of their strengths.

If we do that opportunities will arise for our left and right sides. Broncos also have good second phase play as well that was evident against Souths last week (and are 6th for most offloads) that we need to weary of as well.

The Broncos also boast the most tackle busts of all teams.

Unless it's an outlier, don't expect the Eels to outgrunt or outmuscle the Broncos.

5. Eels need more patience and be better at handling the fight

In last week’s post-game press conference Brad Arthur noted we: “We need to be more patient”. The Dogs “dragged us into a fight and pressured us out of the game.”That was partially true.

The Eels need to be do more than be “patient”. They need to be better at handling pressure from a team that is hungry for a win. And Broncos will be hungry this week.

Meanwhile, Anthony Seibold in his corresponding post-game review noted: Both Souths and the Broncos showed “character”, and the difference between the teams was Damien Cook. He also noted that Broncos were able to handle Souths’ second phase play, where Souths enjoyed 17 offloads (Broncos had 10) – if it weren’t for Cook’s busts through the middle creating opportunities for Souths.

The Eels meanwhile had 21 offloads (to 16) against the Dogs, and will need to create instability in the Broncos defence. The Eels don’t have a Cook, though to take advantage of any holes in the middle around Haas or Lodge. Mahoney is a warrior-like workhorse in defence, albeit extremely selective in his running game and though nippy, not as quick as Cook.

Brad Arthur’s record against Seibold is 2L-1W, is also not as cheerful as Wayne Bennett’s 4W-0L. And Arthur’s record is also in danger of worsening this week.

Bottom line

If the Eels play as they did against the Dogs, where they lost the arm wrestle, they will most likely lose by a heavier margin where the Broncos should be very hungry to win. The Broncos' season is on the line.

The Eels need to find a way to stand up to the Broncos this week. It will be harder without Nathan Brown, who tightens the Eels’ defence that has been improving over the last 2 months since his return. It’s not beyond the Eels, but they must improve or face resurfacing doubts over their credentials to last more than a week come finals time, when the pressure is really on.

[ Post-Match: Broncos won in Golden Point 17-16.]

Their left side, through Fifita proved vital. As well as the class of Milford and Boyd, who had one of his best matches in a long time. Boyd's break off a neat offload. It was that play that set up Fifita's try on the line where he bumped Gower out of the way, and Alvaro with Terepo could not stop him, between the three of them.

The refs (Ashley Klein and Peter Gough) made some big blunders: an incorrect ruling on a forward pass that denied Ferguson his first try ; and also missed marker interference that should have been penalised in golden point time on the play (and pass) that Isaako kicked the winning filed goal. The field goal should not have been awarded, and the Eels should have received a penalty instead.

Naturally, that stained our already horrendous golden-point record: allegedly only 4 wins from 15.

Annesley didn't bring it up in his Monday review either, admitting he had not had a close look at the incident at marker play, despite being aware of it.

Inconsistency in refereering and judiciary discipline appears to be a perennial issue, both during the live game and post-game decision-making and even in postmortems where there is ample time for a proper review. During his Monday review Annesley admitted he hadn’t really paid close attention to some of those matters in the Eels-Broncos game. Unlike the R19 Warriors game where there was a public hanging and demotion of 4 officials.