“Just keep swimming!" is Dory's catchphrase to lift the spirits of down-in-the-dumps, father clownfish Marlin in Finding Nemo. That's just about all we can do, after yet another largely soul-less slaughter at the hands of the rampant Rabbits. 26-0.
The Dogs were also humiliated last week, 42-18 last week by the Warriors at Mount Smart. So, both teams will hunger for redemption
However, the Dogs might feel they have our number after what they did to us on round 14, Black Monday during the Queen's Birthday holiday; mauling and skinning us alive 34-4. And that was when they were running last. They've improved since then.
The Eels' can not afford a loss tomorrow. They have not lost two straight all year and their top-eight hopes could sink into perilous waters with another heavy loss.
Teams
Saturday 3pm, 20 August 2022, Commbank.
Eels
1. Clinton Gutherson (c) 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Tom Opacic 5. Waqa Blake 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo (c) 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Ryan Matterson
Bench: 14. Ofahiki Ogden 15. Bryce Cartwright 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Marata Niukore Reserves: 19. Bailey Simonsson 20. Jakob Arthur 22. Elie El Zakhem
Notes: Makahesi Makatoa and Sean Russell have been cut from the extended squad. Simonsson (hamstring) might force Blake back into the centres. Will Moses be a last-minute out? Apparently, he needs to get through one more training run to make it.
Dogs
1. Jake Averillo 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Aaron Schoupp 4. Braidon Burns 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Max King 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Harrison Edwards 12. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 13. Josh Jackson (c)
Bench: 14. Zach Dockar-Clay 15. Joe Stimson 22. Luke Thompson 23. Tevita Pangai Junior Reserves: 19. Declan Casey 17. Chris Patolo
Notes: The Dogs are strengthened by the return of enforcer Luke Thompson and the offloading King, and bulldozer Tevita Pangai Junior returning from his son's birth last week.
Eels' head coach Brad Arthur has never beaten Dogs' interim head coach Mick Potter losing 2/2 (in the last game R14 and in 2014 when Potter was coaching the Tigers). Potter is one of four existing NRL coaches Arthur has never won against (Potter, Sheens, Fitzgibbon, Demetrious).
Referee: Ashley Klein. We've never beaten the Dogs with Klein as the ref. The last time he was our ref was in our last encounter with the Dogs (Black Monday). Generally, the Dogs fare better with Klien (winning overall 64.1% games v our 48%). Both teams have won 4 of the last 8 under Klein. Despite beating the Panthers twice this year, we've lost the last two encounters against the Panthers (2021) when he was the ref.
Commbank
Despite being humiliated by our boogeyman last week at Commbank, we have never lost two straight at Commbank since its opening three years ago (R6, 2019, a 51-6 rout over the Tigers).
The Eels have not lost to the Dogs here for over three years (R6, 2019, 6-12); winning 2 from 3 games v the Dogs here.
The Eels have an outstanding over record here winning 29/40 games (72.5%). That's better than at any ground we've ever played more than 1 game at (outside of TIO Stadium with 6 wins from 8 at 75%).
Recent History
Favours the Eels, despite the humiliation of the last meet at Accor.
The Eels have not lost two straight to the Dogs for seven years (since 2015-2016 three straight losses); winning 10 of their last 13 against the Dogs with one of the best records under Arthur.For the first time in history between the Dogs and Eels, there has been three successive games of over 20-point margins. The three previous to that were margins of 2,2,6. Will we see a continuation of the bigger margins or traditionally close tussles?
Saturdays
Favour the Eels.
The Eels have won the last 5-straight Saturday games between these two for the last 17 years (since R8,2005, 30-16 loss at Accor).
In fact, the Eels haven't lost a Saturday home ground versus the Dogs in Parramatta since 1961. Back when Cumberland Oval was standing. The year before we made our first finals appearance in 1962. Over 60 years ago.
But this coming Saturday if the Dogs are on, they pose a threat. The Burton-Carr show was in full show with the Fox scoring a hat-trick in their last encounter. He has 9 tries in 10 games against the Eels.
The Dogs are no longer the chump food they were. The Potter-Gould show seems to have expedited some recovery and hope for their future and more hope on the horizon with Ciraldo's arrival next year. If the Dogs play like they did back then on Black Monday and the Eels play like they did last week against Souths, expect a comfortable loss for the Blue and Golds.
Big Losers
When the Eels lose in recent times, there's a good chance they get their pants pulled down in the process. Last week, round 22, saw the Eels record their fourth heavy loss over 21 points; the antithesis of premiership defence and resilience.
The Eels lose on average by 17.1 points per game (ppg). The worst of all top 10 teams. Only the Knights, Warriors, and Dragons have lose by worse average margins. Here are the Eels losing margins:
- 3 losses between 1-7 point margins (Cronulla, Tigers, Roosters).
- 1 loss for 18 points (Souths)
- 4 losses between 22-31 points (Dogs, Souths, Cowboys, Broncos)
The notion that the Eels perform worse against lower teams is not necessarily true. Three from four of the heaviest losses have been against the better teams in the top-half and the Dogs who were 16th when they bashed the Eels are a team on the rise (seemingly).
Getting Bashed: Finding Nemo
Last week, Mitchell ran riot and Souths played with purpose in everything they did.
Of concern in the post-Rabbits pressor where head coach Brad Arthur's apparent loss of answers - as to why the Eels were off their game once again - why the Eels were "bashed" and "steamrolled" in the middle by the Rabbits. And once again as has been the case for the last six straight games v Souths they tore shreds off the Eels' edges and in particular our right edge. He noted he would look into it all.
Arthur added he was not concerned by the Eels' inconsistency so much - rather their lack of physicality. Gutherson, his regal blue right-hand man, fully supported the head coach, doubling down, admitting the team didn't come to play for whatever reason(s).
Interestingly, it's not the first time this year Arthur has publicly deflected the "consistency" catchphrase - with the Eels' issues and lack of killer instinct drawing sharp criticism from some media experts in particular the likes of Cameron Smith, Matty Johns, Andrew Johns and Cooper Cronk. Earlier this year when pressed on the Eels inconsistency, Arthur defended their big-picture "consistency" - during his tenure - pointing to the Eels uninterrupted record in the top-8 over the last four years.
Ironically, Arthur and the team he finds whatever is amiss with the team a fourth successive finals appearance is at stake, as well as history repeating itself with more finals misery for the fourth straight year.
The team was definitely out of sorts last week despite some valiant efforts from Lane and Gutherson. State Of Origin forward Paulo ran 7 times for 63m without troubling scorers with any tackle busts or assists for anything. That says it all.
Soul-less. The real question is why. It's happened all too often, including in the last meet against the Dogs.
We looked clueless to stop the Dogs, then. And that was with Moses.
Jakob Arthur was targetted was also found missing against the Rabbits - like many of his fellow comrades. He's missing from the top 17, hitherto.
Bottom Line
The scramble into the top-eight is heating up. The only thing for sure is the Panthers have secured their fourth minor premiership; whilst the Eels' fate is up in the air. The Eels can ill afford another screw-up.
Here is the state of affairs, and possible ladder points accrued.
1st Panthers: 40- 44 pts (40 pts currently, +302; Souths A won, Warriors H, Cowboys A)
2nd Cowboys: 32-38 pts (32 pts currently, +208; Warriors H, Souths A, Panthers H)
3rd Sharks: 32-38 pts (32 pts currently, +137; Manly A, Dogs H, Knights A)
4th Storm: 30-36 pts (30 pts currently, +211; Broncos A, Roosters H, Eels A)
5th Souths: 28-32 pts (28 pts currently, +130; Panthers H lost, Cowboys H, Roosters A)
6th Broncos: 28-34 pts (28 pts currently, +69; Storm H, Eels H, Dragons A)
7th Eels: 28-34 pts (28 pts currently, +28; Dogs H, Broncos A, Storm H)
8th Roosters: 26-32 pts (26 pts currently, +121; Tigers H, Storm A, Rabbits H)
9th Raiders: 24-30 pts (24 pts currently, -31; Knights A, Manly H, Tigers A)
10th Manly: 20-26 pts (20 pts currently, -28; Sharks H, Raiders A, Dogs A)
11th Dragons: 20-26 pts (20 pts currently, -132; Titans H, Tigers A, Broncos H)
A win this week and 30 points does not guarantee a top-eight finish. The Raiders could conceivably win all three remaining games to get to 30 points on current form - and they or any other team on 30 could even push the Eels out on points differential by the regular season's end.
Hence, margins matter from now on. The Eels can't keep putting off their issues and hope it'll all miraculously come together one-day for more than one half or two successive weeks.
On a positive note, in Thursday's Captain's run Arthur reiterated a similar theme he has numerous times this year even before the season started: that he had "faith" in the Eels team. He also noted the Eels needed a strong start unlike last week and more weeks than not. Undoubtedly, the Dogs will try to ambush us again; knowing we can buckle under pressure and when things go against us.
Whichever way you slice and dice it, the Eels need to find their soul, have greater resilience, and keep it from getting lost time and time again - synonymous with "consistency" - over the next three weeks before the big dance. For now, they can keep swimming but time's just about up.
Unlike the more predictably happy-ending in Finding Nemo where the distraught father Marlin eventually finds his missing son Nemo aided by Dory and friends - we seem to find some soul now and again, for a half or two, then lose it again next week or the next half of footy, or for the odd 10minutes at the start, either side of half-time or final 10 minutes.
Perhaps like the inspirational Marlin-Dory-and-team, Arthur and Gutherson along with senior leaders can find what's been missing off-and-on with the team all year - in the eleventh hour.
If Arthur hasn't been able to find the answers all year, and after nine years at the helm, will he find it over the next few weeks and then be able to implement different habits?
Sources of raw stats and figures: Foxsport, Nrl.com , Rugby League Project, , Stats Insider , RL Tables
Day versus Night stats: 2022 has seen a reversal of trends from the last three years. We have a better night record (10/15, 66.7%) in 2022 than day record (3/6, 50%). During 2019-2021 every year saw better day results than the night; overall day (18/21, 85.7%) versus overall night games (28/53, 52.8%).
Replies
Awesome blog as usual bro, who knows whats going to happen.
I reckon Moses might be a late out, if thats the case, the dogs will prob win, but if moses plays, we should be ok.
Because of the Barrett announcement, i havnt even been able to think straight, im in a daze, think i may have had a mini nervous breakdown when i heard the news, it was a real punch in the guts, made me literally sick and i had to lay down for a good hour to even be able to continue the day.
If i was a camel, that would have been the straw.
It hit me so bad, i cant even get my head around footy or anything atm, it is one of my lowest points as an eels fan in over 40 years and i havnt recovered yet.
I'm with you snake
I depend on my " happy place / the eels" a lot for my mental health . They are my passion and heritage and history ( especially now I live away from my childhood home and syd)
to have someone screw with that or it just be a basket case is really hurtful and makes me so frustrated and angry
it's hard
i feel you carls, its infuriating, and more wasted years.
Thanks mate. Yeah, it's frustrating Snake.
Like you, I believe we still have a lot of issues to sort out - top to bottom and culturally. What happens on the field is only the symptom, the tip of the iceberg, masking the stuff we don't see below deeper waters.
Not much we can do about all of it, hitherto.
Cry? Repeatedly.
But, Snake, remember when Barrett had the Dogs' attack humming ...
Oh, wait ... Trent Barrett's initials of TB make me think more of a bacterial infection on our attack rather than a cure for our attack!
Another brilliant write up HOE. Love your work.
I can't see a win for us regardless of if Moses is in the squad or not.
Dogs 38 Parra 6
Thanks a lot BEM.
Let's hope your tip works in reversal, lol.
I really have no idea what to expect with any of our games these days. Given up on any predictions or expectations whatsoever.
Yes HOE other commentators have been critical of us in the conservative style we play . Not imaginative for periods where our heart falls off periodically. Usually, when enthusiasm and our heart drops off it is an indicator that we are not working for passion and things are disturbing our soul.
Even though Rabbits lost yesterday I loved watching how they used their shapes in attack in the red scoring zones. They are masters in looking really threatening in that part of their game. Those types of shapes are very rare in our game.We have some great talent who could do these things very well with unstoppable Sivo at the end of them. I hope we can see something different with our attack tomorrow.It was embarrassing we couldn,t set up at least one try last week
I agree Tad our attack is depressing at times. Last week we got a penalty 10 m out from the try line and our attack was 4 hit ups followed by a hit up one pass wide And then a kick and pray. So embarrassing to watch and we have really become hard to watch with how pedestrian we are and the lack of effort in general.
then u get to see the broncos first set of the game second tackle and kicking short to their winger from insid their ten. Now that’s exciting to watch.
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