Eels are rightful favourites at $1.66 to $2.17, as this is written, even before team lists tomorrow.
Yesterday's Sunday R20 game, an ugly 12-4 win over the Dragons, was important. We won away from Bankwest for only the second time since its opening in R6 and are looking finals bound in clear 6th, 4 points clear of 8th. Knights meanwhile are 2 points out of the 8, in 11th place, with their season on the line.
1. Eels in their second best form in a decade
We're 5 wins from 6 games. That's the second best form guide in 10 years. A decade of disappointment, wooden spoons and 1 finals campaign. Only once have we bettered that form. In 2017 when we won 11/13 during R12-R26.
It’s on the back of great attack and second phase play. We’re third for offloads. The likes of Sivo, Paulo, Lane, Dylan Brown, Ma’u, Ferguson have really added an attacking arsenal, and an improving defence marked by the return of Nathan Brown.
But we need to be careful to pop out the champagne cork’s yet. We're a long way off contenders like Roosters and Storm. Even Souths and manly.
Storm, as the benchmark - have been doing that for a living, week in week out, for two decades. Since 2010 they’ve matched or bettered our current form on about 19 occasions since 2010. Including a remarkable 12 match winning streak, twice. Three 8-match winning streak, two 9 match winning streak, a 7 match and 8 match winning spree. We haven’t won 12 or more in a row since 1977.
2. We have a terrible record against the Knights
We have lost 11/13 games and the last 4. The last time we beat the Knights was over 3 years ago, back in 2016.
3. It's been 5 and 10 years
We haven’t played the Knights at this location in 5 years, since 2014 and after Parramatta stadium was demolished and re-built. We also last won against the Knights at this ground in R22, 2009. Circa 10 years ago. It's a brand new history. But our record at Bankwest this year has been outstanding.
4. A tale of opposing fortunes: one rises, another falls
In R13 Knights were sitting pretty in 4th place, with the second best defence in the competition and the 5th best attack. We were holding on by a thread to 8th place after a 42-22 hiding by Cronulla, with the second worst defence, letting in 100 more points than the Knights; but the 4th best attack, scoring 2 more points than the Knights.
Now, quite remarkably, both teams' fortunes have reversed since then.
At the end of R20, the Knights have slumped to 11th, and their defence has dropped off a cliff, to be the 8th best. They've slipped to mediocrity.
Meanwhile, we’ve gone the other way, sitting in clear 6th (4 points clear of 8th). More critically our defence has been improving slowly since then and only conceded 10 more points than the Knights; once the darlings of defence barely 2 months ago.
Sunday's 12-4 win over was the lowest points the Eels have conceded to an opposition all year. Our best since, our 40-4 win over Saints last year in R22, ironically.
The Knights have also struggled to score points (slipping to 8th best in attack) and we’ve maintained good attacking footy with great second phase play and an ability to score long range tries (sitting 4th best in attack).
And then there’s the potential rumours of discontent, with powerful centre Jess Ramien apparantly unhappy, wanting out. A losing club is a not a happy club.
But we shouldn’t get too comfortable.
5. Brownies' rewards
Since Nathan Brown returned in R13, our defence has improved to be now the 12th best in the comp (from 2nd worst in R13). Dylan too has impressed since with his defensive efforts on the left edge, and helped our cause since he's been back in R15 . As Michael Ericson noted, "both Browns" are critical to our "defence and on-going chances".
Also, Dylan Brown and Moses' combination has managed to win 6 from 8. And we got another small taste of Dylan Brown’s running game and ample speed yesterday.
Bottom line
It’s make or break time for the Knights. They should be on, as their season is on the line, as is Brown’s potentially if they fail to make the finals again. On form we should win, but have struggled agains the Knights in recent times and they have some class acts in Klemmer, Ponga, Pearce and Watson.
Will we man up at Bankwest, again, and continue our resurgence and improvement, or will the Knights upset us and put us to the sword once again?
Replies
I think we are still far away from the two top sides like the Storm & Roosters, all other teams can be beaten but these two are very hard core. The Storm especially, they will open you up, spread your line defence then run through those gaps.
If we go down by 12 points can we come back? I worry we can't get back into a game. I worry about our wing/centre defence. I worry about our ruck, once they start with the unloads points come. We need to go to another 2-3 levels, but we are heading in the right direction.
Good point Tin Tim. Agree and well said.
We owe the knights a right royal hiding from the way they ambushed us in the corresponding fixture, We should be pumped to put the nail in their finals campaign & it’s something BA should be drilling into the boy during the week.
Yes SE I hope so . That sounds like a great motivation for the boys !!!!
Both Browns are very important to our defence and ongoing chances. It’s actually Dylan Browns defence more than his running game that’s impressed me. I’m not sure I’ve seen a young half defend as well as he has. He hits hard for a bloke his size. It shows a natural timing and aptitude for the game. Fark he’s going to be good
Agree mate. I've been impressed with Dylan's defence too. He reads the game really well. we made some important tackles this week. Though he did miss his tackle on RTS last week one on one, as did others, that almost cost us the match. Can't blame him for that, too much. Great young player. Loads of potential.
Yeah I don’t think anyone is a good chance of tackling RTS one on one!
Herd N brown could be out
I hate playing against this team. Just plain heartache. Hopefully it changes at Bankwest.
Yeah mate, Parra Fan, With you. I didn't realise how bad our record against them was. They ripped apart our middle ruck defence last time.
We should win this time; they seem to be an unhappy team.
But we'll need to outdo the 2017 Eels team that failed to beat this mob.
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