Eels Blogs

It is a little known fact that the new Eels coach, Jason Ryles, is a science-fiction writer. The Future is Now is a 2025 novel depicting a bet on the future of humanity, or more precisely a multi-generational cohort of mentally and emotionally fatigued people who view life through a glowing rectangular screen at which they shout and throw things quite frequently. The bet in question is Shakespearean, to be or not to be, though in this case, to play or not to play. Ryles structures his novel around the star player – already despised as a traitorous brownshirt - not playing. Humanity is on edge awaiting the outcome, which they know is not designed to be anytime soon but is a long-term gamble. Ryles is a gambler extraordinaire, betting that audiences will accept his novel is not like Ernest Cline’s Ready Player One (2011), where in a future society virtual reality presents fans with an escape. Putting the best side out would be a virtual reality bait-and-switch where wins now paste over necessary change. Nor is Ryles’ novel like Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World (1932), where in a future one state everything is geared around pleasing stability. Avoiding critical risk taking would be like ‘soma’ in Brave New World, a drug administered to the population to dull their sense of discord. Like H.G. Wells’ The Time Machine (1895), Ryles’ novel takes its audience on a ride into the future, asking them to hang on and it will all be fine. Will you? Will it? Welcome to Round 20.

Teams

Saturday 19 July 2025, GIO Stadium, 3:00pm (AEDT). Canberra, Lands of the Ngunnawal People. Referee: Ashley Klein, thank the flying spaghetti monster it’s NOT Peter Gough.

EELS: 1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Zac Lomax 3. Bailey Simonsson 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Joash Papali'i 7. Dean Hawkins 8. J'maine Hopgood 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Charlie Guymer 12. Jack Williams 13. Dylan Walker 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Jordan Samrani 16. Matt Doorey 17. Sam Tuivaiti 18. Dylan Brown 19. Dan Keir 20. Toni Mataele 21. Ronald Volkman 22. Haze Dunster.

Head coach: Jason Tomorrow Man Ryles.

RAIDERS:  1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Jed Stuart 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali'i 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Zac Hosking 13. Corey Horsburgh 14. Owen Pattie 15. Simi Sasagi 16. Morgan Smithies 17. Ata Mariota 18. Chevy Stewart 19. Trey Mooney 20. Noah Martin 21. Danny Levi 22. Ethan Sanders.

Head coach: Sticky Traitor Stuart.

Notes: Dyldo Voldemort Brown(shirt) has been dropped. Or more specifically, having barely influenced a game (positively) in 2025, Coach Ryles decided the departing 5/8 was not worth persisting with and the Eels may as well use the remaining rounds in 2025 to build up the experience level of Papalii. Walker has shifted to starting lock, probably to assist Papalii with playmaking. Hopgoode shifts to prop and Williams from prop to second row to cover KitKat Kautoga, taken out for the season by the cheating low-life Panthers who went unpenalized for the hip drop tackle during their R19 match. Smith starts at hooker, with Da Silva at 14 and Samrani the spare backrower. For the Raiders, who really cares, these teams are heading in opposite directions. The Eels are now in “experiment for 2026” mode. The Raiders are basically full strength. Eels will never be full strength so long as Moses is constantly playing half a season or less. Though the 2 from 6 win ratio of games Moses has played in 2025 is still a “miss the finals” kind of thing. Though still better than “Can’t Step Up” Brown, who in 2025 managed just 2 wins from 15 games sans Moses (R5 Dragons, R12 Manly).

Observations from Last Week

Eels vs Panthers, 10-32 (L), 46% possession, 75% vs 87% completion rate, 2 vs 9 linebreaks, 36 tackle breaks each, 16 vs 8 offloads, 36 missed tackles each, 14 vs 31 ineffective tackles, 20 vs 9 errors, 5 penalties conceded each, 3 vs 2 ruck infringements, 1 inside 10 meters each, 0 sin bin.

Raiders had the bye in R19. But they are coming off four straight wins.

R18 Raiders vs Dragons, 28-24 (W), 53% possession, 84% vs 67% completion rate, 6 vs 3 linebreaks, 27 vs 18 tackle breaks, 7 vs 6 offloads, 18 vs 27 missed tackles, 10 vs 12 ineffective tackles, 9 vs 14 errors, 6 vs 5 penalties conceded, 2 vs 0 ruck infringements, 0 vs 1 inside 10 meters, 1 sin bin (Dragons).

Eels/Panthers R19 Highlights HERE.

Raiders/Dragons R18 highlights HERE

The big story from the Panthers match was the Eels’ bucket load of errors. Stats sites listed them differently: nrl.com 20 vs 9 errors, and foxsports.com.au 17 vs 9 errors. Yet both show the Eels made double the errors of the Panthers in each half. The eye test tells us the Eels repeatedly turned the ball over on 4^{th or} 5^th tackle in their own 40-50 metres zone, and that helps account for 17 versus 47 tackles in the opposition 20 metre zone. The Eels basically invited the Panthers to set up shop in their red zone.

Three aspects of the Eels/Panthers game are worth highlighting. Each aspect has implications for the Eels going forward – if we allow our mind to float forward - and poses challenges for how fans navigate the fact Ryles has pulled the plug on 2025 and is now in exploration mode to build the Eels for 2026. These three aspects are:

1) Penrith escaping being penalized

2) Fatal errors

3) The referee

Next section we can unpack all three and ask what they might imply for the Eels in the future.

The Future is Now

As we all know, when asked about Dylan Brown starting at hooker and then playing the final few minutes at lock, Ryles replied that “our future is now” (see the comments in the press conference after the Panthers game (at 0:34)).

1) PENRITH ESCAPING BEING PENALIZED. In the first half the Eels were arguably the better team. Yet double the error rate of the Panthers meant the Panthers had twice the number of tackles in the Eels 20m zone as the Eels had in the Panthers 20m zone. With 3 minutes to go in the first half the Eels had completed at just 62% versus Panthers 89%. The difference became a late try to the Panthers for a 12-10 half time lead. That late try came on the back of multiple instances of simply not penalizing the Panthers. 

First, with about 2:30 to go, and the Eels leading 10-6, the Panthers kicked downfield. The Eels rucked it out to about the Panthers 35m line. Kautoga was felled by a hip drop tackle, which was not penalized. Lomax’s field goal attempt bounced around and the Panthers were not going anywhere until Cleary quite obviously notices Kautoga limping in the line. Shifting the ball to that edge, Kautoga cannot slide out and the Eels end up short (though JAC should have held his width). On the ensuing play the Panthers very clearly resorted to Tunnel Ball play-the-balls and were not penalized.

At what point does the NRL wake up to the fact the Panthers resort to Tunnel Ball, which is just another cheat play in the same mould of cheat plays the Storm once mastered. Exotic tackles for the Storm, exotic play-the-balls for the Panthers?

Into the future . . . will the Eels become completely reliant on Moses to provide the vision and calmness to spot opportunities in the defensive line? Cleary has been a failure at Origin level, but nobody denies he has dominated club football, and he spotted the opportunity presented by Kautoga’s injury. Ryles said Papalii would be given the “first opportunity” at 5/8. The Eels have two hookers of limited experience (Smith & Da Sylva) and a fullback (Iongi) of limited experience, and it is usually the spine tasked with the vision to guide a team on-field.

Into the future . . . there is also a murky issue of game management. What would have happened if Kautoga had of stayed down after the hip drop tackle? Would that have given the bunker a chance to review and notify Gough? A penalty at minimum. Maybe a shot at goal? Maybe a sin bin? The other week we noted the Eels are a relatively ‘clean side’: awarded more penalties than they concede, though they rank 6^th total for sin bins (8 total; Tigers 16, Bunnies 12 and Chooks 10 are the worst). Should the Eels be looking to draw greater attention to what the referee’s miss? Is the absence of Moses, and the fact Dylan checked out in Round 1 and Gutherson has gone, leaving the Eels lacking assertive voice on field?

2) FATAL ERRORS. In the second half the Eels shot themselves in the foot again: double the number of errors, leading to the Panthers having quadruple the number of tackles in the Eels’ 20m zone as the Eels had in the Panthers’ 20m zone. One of those errors proved fatal. The Eels were down 10-18 with 18 minutes to go. Commentators were noting the Eels were suffocating the Panthers in defence. Unfortunately, Lomax drops the ball cold with the line wide open. The Panthers pick up the ball, run down field, and score on the next play for 22-10. The air seemed to go out of the Eels. Note that leading up to the Tago try 15 mins into the second half - where the Panthers extenbded their lead to 18-10 - the Eels had been penalized twice (both Hopgoode) and made three errors. In the final 20 mins, the Eels conceded three penalties and made five errors.

Into the future . . . the Eels appear set on playing an expansive game of football. They have been using short interchange passes amongst the forwards and in the middle of the field, and side-to-side shifts of the ball even in their own 30-40 metre zone (BA had banned such play). But is it a style of play bound to breed errors, or just undone by unfortunate errors? How do the Eels bring the errors under control without losing the intended flair? What do the Eels have if they draw back from promoting the ball?

Into the future . . . can we take current stats as indicative of what Ryles is aiming for? If so, then according to the Fox Sports Lab at foxsports.com.au, the Eels are aiming to be an expansive side but f*ck up regularly. The Eels have the highest average offload per game (13.3), the second highest general passes per game, and rank 6^th for tries scored per game despite being anchored to the bottom of the table all season. The Eels are not dying wondering with the ball, ranking 13^th for 1 pass runs (a stark difference from the BA “win the collision” years). Note the Eels have the lowest average dummy half runs per game (4.6), but clearly want to be expansive, so it makes perfect sense they opted to pick up a running dummy half (Da Sylva). But the Eels have the absolute lowest average completion rate of all NRL teams (77%), are third worst for errors per game (10.6; the Top 4 are in the bottom or better sector of this statistic), the second worst for linebreaks conceded, and the absolute worst for missed tackles.

Can the Eels sustain their expansive game but – leading into 2026 – learn to curtail the errors and missed tackles, which undo their attacking threat? Can an inexperienced spine - where hooker(s), fullback and five-eight are all rookies in 2025 – use the back end of 2025 to learn how to be the vehicle to getting the mix right? Expansive play without all the f*ck ups?

3) THE REFEREE. In the R16 game against the Titans my preview noted that so long as Peter Gough was not refereeing, the Eels stood a chance. I forgot to link to data explaining why. Thanks to the excellent work of The Rugby League Eye Test (RLET), the stats back up our Fan’s Eye Test that Gough was happy to penalize the Eels while missing quite a bit from the Panthers. No, I do not want to blame the ref entirely, as those Eels errors killed them. But Gough is an Eel Killer himself.

First, RLET shows a counter-intuitive result across all teams, where conceding penalties and set restarts is NOT correlated with losing. Dirtier might be better. Picking out the Eels from the RLET data, the Eels are awarded about 2-3 more penalties than they concede (net positive for penalties; they rank second for penalties awarded at 6 pg and 9^th for penalties conceded at 5.1 pg) and concede about one more set restart per game than they are awarded. Why is dirtier better? Teams like Storm, Raiders, Dogs and Penrith are more penalized than other teams but winning. Do those teams strategically know when to concede or do referees not penalize when they should? Maybe the refs under-penalize the more fancied teams, given more strategic infringements by those teams?

Now we move to the referees. Peter Gough leads the NRL with penalties above average over the past five seasons. Indeed, Gough is double the rate of the next candidate (Grant Atkins). Ashley Klein is average FYI (the ref for R20 vs Raiders). For set restarts above average over the past five seasons, a group of four award them willy-nilly (Raymond, Perenera, Gee and Smith), but Peter Gough is below average. But in the 2025 season, Peter Gough is in the Top 3 for both penalties above average and set restarts above average. Peter Gough refereed both Eels games against Penrith and the Eels were on the raw end of the refereeing stick in each contest, mostly in the form of inconsistency that favoured Penrith.

However, what truly hurts the Eels is losing the possession and territory game. The likelihood of the Eels pushing passes and breeding errors or conceding tries (especially long range) goes up as they lose possession and/or territory. Gough’s penalties/set restarts stats show a referee willing to let the whistle amplify lack of possession or territory. Moreover, while the better teams can maybe absorb yardage penalties, it seems not the case for the Eels; ditto set restarts that compound loss of territory.

Into the future . . . especially with Moses nowadays tending to play at best half a season for the Eels, and older heads having moved on (Gutherson, RCG, Lane, Cartwright . . . Matterson? Brown seen his last days in FG?), do the Eels simply lack the kind of on-field leadership that would put some pressure back on to the referees? With a young spine, do the Eels lack the experience to handle not just the bounce of the ball going against them, but the discretion of the referee? Maybe this is why Ryles is dumping Brown early? With Moses due to return for the Round 21 match against the Broncos - and Storm, Cowboys, Bunnies, Chooks, Warriors and Knights to follow – is Ryles simply hoping (injuries and suspensions permitting) a young spine WITH Moses might have SEVEN games to prepare for 2026?

Hopefully it won’t end like the movie Seven, with Ryles’ head in a box.

The Bottom Line

When we say, ‘the future is now’, we do a weird grammatical thing. The word ‘future’ is a noun, a period yet to occur. ‘Now’ is an adverb indicating our present. The word ‘is’ is the present tense version of the verb ‘to be’. Rather than anticipating the future we are being told we are experiencing the future, or that our present is shaping that future. So, as fans, we can ask if we think dropping your departing international 5/8 and slotting in a virtual rookie is a present that is, will, could shape the future or if it is the right strategy for shaping the future? 

The final eight games of the season are ultimately going to be a test case for a simple set of questions:

Q1) “Does it matter what the results of the last eight games are”?

Q2) “As a fan, are you OK with the new coach making choices that are clearly about 2026 and not 2025”?

Q3) “What is better, winning a few games but never likely to sneak into the Top 8? Or, potentially losing all the remaining games but your young spine gets eight games of experience in preparation for 2026?”

Q4) “Assume Papalii gets eight end-of-season games at 5/8. He is given ‘first opportunity’ as Ryles said. If the Eels lose all eight, but Papalii ends up not cutting it and is not the 5/8 in 2026, was that a failed experiment or a successful experiment? Would a failed experiment reflect well or poorly on Ryles?”

Go Eels. Stay strong my Eels brothers and sisters.

PS: I confirm not a single word of this stupid preview was generated by a literally dumb Large Language Model (LLM). It remains possible to write and think for yourself, all claims otherwise notwithstanding.