Eels Blogs

In Cormac McCarthy’s 2006 novel The Road - which was adapted for a movie of the same name in 2009 - a story is told of a post-apocalyptic future in which a father and his son amble toward the sea to escape the winter, traversing a landscape where crops and livestock are all dead and cannibalistic marauders lurk around most corners. The book, and its film adaptation, are about as fun as watching a bus run over children. The misery of it all is not just the bleak portrayal of survivalism in a harsh world. Nor even the ever-present death (spoiler alert: both parents pass away). The misery of it all is the clear futility of the journey, and the presentation of naïve trust as about all anyone has left. The futility is that we know the boy will be left fatherless soon, and that the world is irredeemably frakked. The naïve trust is that the father (rightfully) suspects everyone of being cannibals or thieves, but the boy wants to help people, offering precious food to strangers. Extending trust in a futile quest has been an ongoing theme in human culture. Recall the story of Sisyphus in Greek mythology, who – due to Sisyphus’ treachery and trickery - was condemned by Zeus to eternally push a rock up a hill only for it roll back down again. So here we all are, fans on the road, as the Eels push that rock up the hill again, and we all feel like naïve trust is all we have left as we await the rock to roll back down over the Eels’ premiership hopes. Again. Welcome to Round 20.

Teams

Friday 29 July, Commbank Stadium, Parramatta, 7:55pm (AEDT). Lands of the Barramattagal People. Referee: Todd thank f***en christ it’s not Ashley Klein Smith.

Eels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Waqa Blake 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Ryan Matterson 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Bryce Cartwright 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Marata Niukore 18. Jakob Arthur 19. Ofahiki Ogden 20. Ky Rodwell 21. Tom Opacic 22. Sean Russell

Head coach: Brad Inutilis Arthur.

Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Taylan May 3. Izack Tago 4. Robert Jennings 5. Brian To’o 6. Sean O’Sullivan 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Matt Eisenhuth 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Jaeman Salmon 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Charlie Staines 18. Sunia Turuva 19. Lindsay Smith 20. Chris Smith 21. Thomas Jenkins 22. Moses Leota

Head coach: Ivan the terrible Cleary

Notes: the big news for the Eels is really the absence of some players, both for the Panthers and on their own bench. Luai and Chrichton are out for the Panthers. Brad Arthur appears to have realized Jacob Arthur is an answer to the wrong question, replacing him with Bryce Cartwright on the bench. Everyone has been debating ‘to boo or not to boo’, but that is a side issue. If the question is “how can we cover directly for the loss of a half in a game”, your reserve grade half back, whatever their name, is one answer. But what if the appropriate questions are ones like: how do the Eels achieve impact off the bench? How can the Eels turn momentum around when it is all going against them? How can the Eels stiffen their defense at the end of halves, when they often concede points? I suggest JA was an answer to the wrong question(s). Maybe Cartwright is rocks and diamonds but do potential diamonds answer the questions above? Maybe BA could consider Matterson reverting to his bench role, playing the final 60 minutes, where his impact was good enough to warrant Blues’ selection? Is this weekend, with Cartwright in and JA out, like a fork in the road? As Robert Frost wrote in The Road Not Taken (1915): “Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference”.

Observations from Last Week

Eels (vs Broncos), 14-36 (L), 50% possession, 74% completion rate, 3 line breaks, 27 tackle breaks, 16 offloads, 29 missed tackles, 17 ineffective tackles, 16 errors, 2 penalties conceded, 2 inside 10 meters, 1 ruck infringements, 1 sin bin.

Panthers (vs Sharks), 20-10 (W), 56% possession, 75% completion rate, 4 line breaks, 41 tackle breaks, 5 offloads, 36 missed tackles, 15 ineffective tackles, 12 errors, 5 penalties conceded, 0 inside 10 meters, 1 ruck infringements, 0 sin bins.

Eels/Broncos highlights HERE.

Panthers/Sharks highlights HERE.

Both the Eels and Sharks scored first, within the first 10 minutes, against the Broncos and Panthers respectively. But the comparison mostly ends there, because the Sharks led 10-0 at the 35-minute mark and 10-8 at half-time, whereas the Eels trailed 4-6 at the 10-minute mark on the way to a demoralizing 10-24 half time deficit. But the start of the second half rekindles the comparison, because the Panthers scored in the first minute of the second half to take the lead 14-10. Like the Sharks, the Eels fluffed the opening of the second half, botching the kick off reception, to hand the ball to the Broncos and concede a try out wide (where else?), pushing their deficit out to 10-30. In the second half the Eels scored one try, had another disallowed, and fluffed one or two more opportunities, but the damage had been done in the first half. By contrast, the Panthers scored 12 unanswered points against the Sharks in the second half, taking their opportunities.

The Eels/Broncos game was also defined by opportunities. In the first half, the Eels had just 42% possession and 41% territory. The Eels reversed that stat in the second half (59% possession and 68% territory). But their completion rate dropped from 82% to 62%, partly explaining why they failed to convert 31 vs 3 tackles in the opposition 20-meter zone (compare to 13 vs 20 (Broncos) in the opposition 20m zone in the first half). The Broncos took their opportunities, especially off kicks, with Gutherson having an utterly forgettable kick defusal evening. Gutho was involved, and not in a good way, with the Broncos’ first try (fumbled a kick), second try (missed tackle on Haas), third try (out of position on a grubber kick), and sixth try (lost the ball on a kick return). Here Gutherson singing The Beatles’ Long and Winding Road (1970): “Why leave me standing here? Let me know the way”.

The rock is rolling back, my friends

Like the boy in The Road, maybe we can be naïve optimists just a little bit? Maybe we can trust, ironically, in the sheer inconsistency of the Eels? After being beaten at their own game by the Broncos – the “power game + kicks” - Round 19, can the Eels turn it around in Round 20 and beat Penrith? Again. Yes, let us not forget that the Eels are the only team to beat Penrith in 2022, a stirring 22-20 victory at BlueBet Stadium in Penrith in Round 9.  

Some additional causes of (naïve, trusting) optimism include a) the fact the Eels and Panthers have been close games for a decade, and b) the Eels and Storm have recently been the only teams to really trouble Penrith, and c) the Eels have a good record in Friday night games, and d) there are a few Eels’ players with milestones for motivation, and e) the Sivo factor.

But now for the news that suggests the situation is less like the boy’s understanding of the situation, and and more like the father’s understanding. The naïve, optimistic trust is probably going to end poorly, confronted by some harsh realities. The Eels concede more linebreaks than they make, and only just barely run for more meters than they concede. By comparing the Eels to Penrith across both metrics, the situation is like the father in The Road constantly feared, where the Eels are essentially running up against some cannibals. The Panthers are No. 1 for each metric, making many more linebreaks than they concede and running for many more meters than they concede (indeed, they run for twice as many more meters than they concede than any other team).

And if we look at general statistics, the Eels are statistically out-matched, especially when it comes to defence and discipline.

 The Bottom Line

Like in The Road, it might thus seem all is lost. But are there clues to escaping the inevitable? I looked at foxsports stats (players) and two statistics stand out, when selecting ‘defence’. One is TC (Try Causes) and the other is LBC (Linebreak Causes).

For Try Causes: Gutherson 24 (1^st) and Simonsson 23 (2^nd) stand alone as the worst fullback and winger and worst two players overall. Penisini (14) is equal 21^st worst. Both Mahoney (9) and Dylan Brown (8) are the next in the Eels’ list, in the worst 70 players. Sivo gets a (dis)honourable mention of 6 (given his limited games in 2022).

For Linebreak Causes: Simonsson 21 (equal 2^nd worst) and Penisini (16 (equal 17^th worst) appear too prominently (again), followed by Blake and Mahoney both on 12 (equal 44^th worst) and Dylan Brown 11 (equal 53^rd worst). Sivo gets a (dis)honourable mention of 8 (given his limited games in 2022).

Note that Gutherson is in the Top 10 (worst) for overall errors (24), and both Mahoney (18) and Moses (17) are in the Top 20 (worst) for overall errors. But overall errors is dominated by spine players, so increased touches of the ball probably discounts the explanatory relevance of overall errors. Still, our spine is making errors. Similarly, in the IT (Ineffective Tackles) category, Mahoney (37) is 3^rd (worst), Dylan Brown (32) is equal 5^th (worst), and Papali’I (28) and Lane (27) are in the Top 20 (worst).

What these stats do suggest, though, is that our ‘eyeball’ test that our outside back and edge defense is a leaking sieve is confirmed by statistics.

The question to ask, is whether it is just a giant coincidence that our outside backs and edge forwards all appear in the ‘worst of’ lists for several key defensive categories, or whether the very way the team defends creates these problems? That is, is the Eels’ defensive frailty a personnel issue or a coached structural issue?

Anyway, for what it is worth, I can imagine the Eels getting belted just as much as I can imagine them securing an inspiring victory. I can also imagine them winning this week and getting belted by Manly next week, just as much as the reverse, they get belted this week and thrash Manly next week. But here we all are, on this road, pushing the rock up the hill. As Cormac McCarthy wrote in The Road, “nobody wants to be here and nobody wants to leave”.