On Friday night's hyped-up Battle of the West, the Panthers are overwhelming favorites to bounce back from some recent knock-downs when they host the Eels.
However, the Eels have been the biggest thorn to the Panthers of all clubs since the Panthers' rise from 2020, despite the Panthers belting the Eels when it counts the most. And there is plenty of good noise and confident-spiel coming out of the Eels' camp on the back of their longer pre-season.
Teams
Friday, March 15, 2024BlueBet Stadium, Penrith
Panthers
1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Taylan May 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo
Bench: 14. Soini Luke 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Liam Henry 17. Luke Garner
Reserves: 18. Daine Laurie 19. Matt Eisenhuth 20. Mavrik Geyer 21. Paul Alamoti 22. Brad Schneider
Head Coach: Nathan "Someone-needs-to-be-obstructed" Cleary
Eels
1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Bailey "Prove it" Simonsson 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Morgan Harper 5. Sean "He-Man" Russell 6. Dylan "Golden Child" Brown 7. Mitchell "Annoying nuts" Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Joey "Nuggets" Lussick 10. Junior "Starting" Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. J’maine Hopgood
Bench: 14. Brendan Hands 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Joe Ofahengaue 17. Kelma Tuilagi
Reserves: 18. Ofahiki Ogden 19. Wiremu Greig 20. Luca Moretti 21. Makahesi Makatoa 22. Blaize Talagi
Head Coach: Brad "he's my golden child" Arthur
Notes: Moses confirmed yesterday he would be right to go, despite his "annoying" groin strain.
Apex Predators
From 2020, the Panthers have the most dominating four-year run since the modern game started in 1967, marked by the beginning of limited-tackles and end of the Unlimited Tackle epoch. That's 57 years.
Penrith's winning ratio (around 84%) over the last four years is even higher than the Saints 11-year title run between 1955-56 (at a tad over 81%).
But, can they maintain the rage for a four-peat and still be the leading benchmark?
It's early days, but some are already questioning it after the Storm loss and the loss of two more key players, Chrichton and Leniu, from last year's squad. Putting aside the Saints' record-11-peat-title reign ending in 1966, a four-peat was last achieved almost a century ago in 1929.
If any team could rewrite the history books, this mob would be the One.
Perhaps, it's a testament to the Eels' great potential that they have had the most success of any club against the Panthers during their golden run.
An Eels' win would be in rarified air: more than a few blue moons
Against the Panthers, the Eels have won the last game at BlueBet and two-straight games. Improving on that, rewrites the history books.
The last time the Eels have won at three straight against them over 22 years ago (R1, 2002, above pics), when Nathan Cleary was four. Luke Burt set a point-scoring record and all-female cheerleading cast was the norm. That was 17 Blue Moons ago, and at home.
The Panthers have an imposing recent record at home. They have won 10 from the last 11 (90.1%, since R1, 2023) at a bone-rattling 31.5 - 11.8 average.
Their only loss at home during this time in the last year, was to the Eels late last year (18-32, R26, 2023). But it's been 16 years since the Eels won two-straight there. 13 blue moons have come and gone since then.
Motivated to hit-back
The Panthers' pride should see them highly-motivated for this game to avoid a series of losses.They have lost the last two games (Storm 0-8 last week, World Club Challenge 2024 12-16). The last time the Panthers lost three-straight was five years ago.
Storm keep Panthers to zip, again
Dylan Edwards and Nathan Cleary look in in dismay during the tight 8-0 loss the the Storm in Melbourne last week | Getty Images
Last round, the Panthers lost a close encounter away to the Storm, 0-8, in an error-riddled affair. Oddly enough, over the last 12 years (since R5, 2013), the Storm are the only team to have kept the Panthers scoreless and it was on three occasions (last round; 0-16 on R22, 2022; 0-20 on R13,2015). History seems to have a bizzare sense of symmetry. Or humor.
The Eels celebrate their players-player-of-the-match Bryce Cartwright's try double in the their impressive 28-8 win over the Dogs last week at Commbank | Getty Images
In contrast, the Eels had a solid win over the Dogs 28-8. The highlight was the Eels' forward-pack, an agressive physicality and control over the match, despite a stuttering that didn't see them take full advantage of overwhelming possession (60%) , field possession, and opportunities in the red zone (51-12). The Dogs were never allowed to get out of second gear and Foxsport commentators noted their "sportscars (on the left edge including the Fox-Chrichton-Kikau) were on a dirt road."
However, a handful of late-match errors (dropped balls by Pensini and Hopgood with both not watching the ball) saw the Dogs score two late tries. Two errors, two tries.
That begs a few questions. What if the Dogs had more opportunities in the Eels' red zone? Has the Eels' red zone vulnerability and ability to defend their errors been addressed during the off-season?
Encouragly, there's plenty of positive noise coming out of the Eels' camp.
Good noise: Rinse, Repeat
"No one really worries us", Ryan Matterson told reporters yesterday when asked who he fears from Penrith. It seemed to have a wider meaning.
"We're focused on ourselves," he added.
Despite the Eels' recent success against the Panthers, Matterson pointed out that was not what gave the Eels' confidence.
"The work we've done in the pre-season gives us confidence."
Again the promising off-season is a theme we've heard numerous times coupled what what Arthur has called a greater "focus on more fan engagement". Nothing engages fans more than winning and playing well.
The other theme to arise this week is the idea of "consistency".
In the past, we've been awfully consistent too: consistently inconsistent from half-to-half, week-to-week.
"It's all about repeating what we did last week," Joe Ofahengaue told reporters this week. Playing "tough" footy through the middle.
"Parra's power game has always been there, it's more the consistency part (that has been lacking)", Matterson reinforced.
The legendary middle "power game". "Chasing the Collision". But with more consistency. More intensity. More aggression.
Interestingly, when asked, Matterson said he "didn't know" why the Eels play well against the or if they did anything special against the Panthers. Almost as if the game plan, even against the best, by default goes to a structured, middle power-game that earns the right to play some second-phase footy, seeing we're the Harlem Globetrotters of offloads. The tough first, then the pretty.
A defensive downside of a heavy-loaded, middle-centric mindset is the heavier-concrete-footed inside gets overly compressed especially when fatigued leaving the edges vulnerable. We've seen that consistently, year after year. We also saw symptoms of those bad habits in the Canberra trial. It's not all about power and brute force. It's about lateral agility and moving together organically along with slowing the ruck something we haven't been king pins on in the past.
Encouragely, against the Dogs there was plenty of aggressive, Pantheresque hunting-in-packs defence driving the ball-carrier backwards, back-pedalling the ball, which helps slow the ruck and build dominance.
Yet, will it continue? Will the Eels' become more consistent in the manner they aim, and not crack under pressure as they have in the past, consistently?
Bottom Line
Eels' fans will be hoping that the longer off-season with renewed focus on more gutso, physicality and dominating defence - a redemption for last year's "embarrassing" aches - counts for something.
We have not proven anything of substance, yet.
Nevetheless, there were plenty of positives from the round one win. It's all about better habits that appear to have started last week and in the off-season. And just like the round one performance Arthur noted they "needed", they need to do it again. Yet, only time will tell how much the Eels will step up, consistently. Sybil's habits may die hard.
We all know the Panthers are likely to prevail. But if the Eels can bring their agressive A-game, defend their line and errors, take advantage of their second-phase skills, they can upset the game's biggest predator.
Replies
Good write up HOE and it's great to see you back doing this for another season.
Thanks, BEM . That's very kind of you, buddy.
A defensive downside of a heavy-loaded, middle-centric mindset is the heavier-concrete-footed inside gets overly compressed especially when fatigued leaving the edges vulnerable. We've seen that consistently, year after year. We also saw symptoms of those bad habits in the Canberra trial. It's not all about power and brute force. It's about slowing the ruck effectively, agility and moving together organically.
This is the paragraph that stood out for me the lack of lateral agility within our middle third hurts our edges.Jnr RCG need to stand up here this little tid-bit is a gem and needs to improve.This also falls on our work out of marker also.As soon as that marker gets out on the first reciever it makes a hell of alot of difference even if they move the ball because it basically you know your insides protected and the edges can just go to the outside shoulders of there opponents.
Good write up HoE and I think this will be a big ask for us this week.Panthers will be hurting and I can't remember when they lost 3 on the trot.
Thanks, Coryn. Yep, agree with you, mate. It was 5 years (2019) ago when the Panthers lost 3-straight games. A few blue moons ago, lol.
Outstanding as usual bro, we will get the panthers tonight
Snake! Great to see you around man, hope you are well.
Snakey! Thanks, brother. As you're the spirit and heart-beat of this site, it's fantastic to see you back! I hope you're right about tonight.
Brilliant preview as always, HOE.
Thank you for the time & massive effort putting this together for all of us.
It would take a brave, or foolish, man to write-off the Apex predator, but there is a sense that the Panthers might be facing their toughest challenge in a while.
They have been amazing, as you have shown, but it will be interesting to see how they handle chasing wins if they are to go 0-2, or 1-3?
Not questioning their ability to handle pressure, but, it would be a kind of uncharted territory for them.
They're vulenable, and the Eels look a little hungrier right now - as they should be.
Like Coryn, the lateral agility & work around the middle third you mentioned resonates, and for whatever reason, the Eels work ethic defensively across the board seems to lift against this opponent.
I liked Matto's comments, because they do ring true, the Eels don't have anyone to fear, except themselves.
Predicting a brutal game physically, and the hunter to become the hunted.
Did you know an eel can kill a crocodile? Irrelevant, but found that interesting.
Thanks again HOE.
EELS by 4 - off the back of their forwards.
Thanks, bro. Mr Voice of wisdom & compassion. An Eel can kill an apex predator like the crocodile? Great analogy, NOS. Fascinating. I looked it up.
So, it seems an "electric eel" sends 800V-plus to stun or kill the convulsing crocodile. It can also stun via electric currents in the water.
I suppose our "electric" shock-waves are when we get our second-phase, offloading footy game on, which can strike quickly and stun our foe. The highly-structured, predictable and endantic one-out block plays in the opposition red zone might be "steady-and-control-the-ship-safe", but it ain't too electric.
Interestingly, the Eel's dangerous predatory high-voltage "electricity" hinges on one thing: The Eel's properly-working brain sending signals to produce electricity. That is, connectivity of the whole beast.
That's not unlike us. When our brain isn't working - when we clock off, mentally switch off, practising bad brain-habits - like the eel, we don't generate electricity. And we have seen that in the past spill over into our fatigued or lazy overly-compressed and mangled-up inside defence. Electric-less. Unconnected. And in that case, we're more of an impotent, lumpy worm than an electric eel.
to add to that, it's common for an eels' eyesight to deteriorate over time as it lurks in murky waters. This effects its ability to see and to be alert to incoming predators, which thus undermines its ability to react-in-time to produce electricity - making it vulnerable.
The moral of the story for us is: bad habits in murky environments (with party-drugs-booze etc), produce a largely ineffective worm-of-an-Eel. Sluggish, non-agile, non-reactive, poor in both attack and defence.
For both our in the wild eel and us it all hinges on habits and habitats. Everything between the ears.
Watch the Eel defeat the crocodile at around 4:25 minute mark.
Love everything you wrote there
let's stay alert and ready to deliver high voltage
I think carty will be key in all our games this year
if he is dominating and on song we will be too !!!
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