Nassim Taleb’s Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder (2012) argues that the most influential events are often the least anticipated, which Taleb calls ‘black swan’ events. Taleb says our world changes according to a mix of unintelligibility, luck, uncertainty, risk, probability, and human error. The Eels’ season so far has featured obvious errors (hi Dylan), uncertainty (injuries, suspensions, consequences of a slow start), some luck (goals not kicked), some risk-taking (letting go of key forwards in 2022) that might have been good probabilistic reasoning (the form of replacement forwards), and examples of the completely unintelligible (hi Dylan again, but also Matto’s suspension over fine? sleepy second halves rather than 50+ scores? what happened to Hodgo?). What does Taleb say about responding to all those things, most of which we could not have anticipated, but which are profoundly influential? Taleb wrote that “antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better”. The Eels have been more than resilient. They have been antifragile: they have got better in the face of the unanticipated. Now the Eels enter a game without any of their first-choice spine because half are on Origin duty and the other half stupidly suspended or injured. Who could have anticipated? None of us. Keep being antifragile, Eels, all the way to reversing the result of the final game of 2022. Welcome to Round 19.
Teams
Saturday 8 July, CommBank Stadium, Parramatta, 5:30pm (AEDT). Lands of the Burramattagal People. Referee: Adam Gee.
EELS: 1. Sean Russell 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Bailey Simonsson 5. Isaac Lumelume 6. Ryan Matterson 7. Daejarn Asi 8. Ofahiki Ogden 9. Brendan Hands 10. Junior Paulo 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Andrew Davey 13. J'maine Hopgood 14. Luca Moretti 15. Joe Ofahengaue 16. Shaun Lane 17. Makahesi Makatoa 18. Haze Dunster 19. Waqa Blake 20. Ky Rodwell 21. Matt Doorey 22. Jack Murchie.
Head coach: Brad All Hail Arthur
WARRIORS: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Rocco Berry 4. Adam Pompey 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Luke Metcalf 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Bunty Afoa 11. Jackson Ford 12. Mitchell Barnett 13. Tohu Harris 14. Dylan Walker 15. Bayley Sironen 16. Tom Ale 17. Freddy Lussick 18. Brayden Wiliame 20. Ronald Volkman 21. Kalani Going 22. Zyon Maiu'u 23. Taine Tuaupiki.
Head coach: Andrew Who Webster.
Notes: The Eels enter this match without a single player from their planned (at start of the season) ‘spine’: Moses and Gutherson on SOO3 duty, with Brown suspended and Hodgson injured. The Eels will have to rely on their middle go forward, but even there, RCG is on Origin duty, Hopgoode is in the QLD camp as 18th man (but back for the game), Lane is first game back from injury and Matterson is out in the 5/8 position. Overall, the Eels have a disrupted lineup, which may lower fan expectations but also increase the sweetness of victory. For the Warriors, Shaun Johnson’s wife is expecting Child #2 and it is possible the elusive SJ, in possibly career-best form, might not make the trip over (Volkman is on standby). A quote attributed to the Warriors coach (Webster) is that “it’s down to Mother Nature” if SJ plays. On behalf of Eels fans, we wish Mrs Johnson and the Johnson clan a safe and health delivery.
Observations from Last Week
Eels (vs Dolphins), 48-20 (W), 59% possession, 81% completion rate, 12 linebreaks, 26 tackle breaks, 13 offloads, 24 missed tackles, 9 ineffective tackles, 9 errors, 3 penalties conceded, 0 ruck infringements, 0 sin bin.
Warriors (vs Bunnies), 6-28 (L), 44% possession, 69% completion rate, 1 linebreaks, 28 tackle breaks, 3 offloads, 16 missed tackles, 13 ineffective tackles, 13 errors, 5 penalties conceded, 0 ruck infringements, 1 sin bin.
Eels/Dolphins R17 highlights HERE.
Warriors/Bunnies R18 highlights HERE
The Eels’ last start was the Bye, so we go back to R17, where the Eels put on a scintillating first half performance to lead the Dolphins 42-4 at half time. The second half turned out to be as dozy a performance as Johny Bairstow getting stumped ambling out of his crease.
Despite that second half nap, no team will want to play an Eels team moving the ball to the edges like the Eels did in that first half vs the Dolphins. Hopgoode, Davey and Cartwright terrorized the Dolphins’ line, both as runners and passers. What we must imagine here is that injury and suspension have conspired to deny the the Eels a backrow contingent of Hopgood, Matterson, Lane, Cartwright, and Davey, yet the run into the finals should – fingers crossed – see all available. Add RCG and Paulo as starting props and the improvements we have seen in Ogden and Makatoa, and with Ofahengaue available, and the Eels have managed to address concerns about the forwards they lost from last season in the best way possible. That is, ‘form’. Notably, we are not talking some brute force ‘the Eels on their day can run over the opposition’. What stood out in the Dolphins game was the superior lines – chasing the spaces not the collisions - the Eels forwards ran and their ball playing at the line. Every team will struggle to handle that kind of forward smarts.
But what of that second half? It showed the Eels have yet to master the ‘ruthless streak’. Completion rate fell from 90% to 69%, which in other contexts is a perfectly fine place in which to end up, but not on a football field. Tackle breaks and line-breaks halved, missed tackles tripled and errors doubled. The Eels still had 28 tackles in the Dolphins 20m and only came up with some lazy last play options that conceded runaway tries. Compare this to Round 17: Warriors advanced from 20 to 48 vs Dragons (conceded 12 in H2), Cowboys advanced from 5 to 31 vs Bunnies (conceded 6 in H2). Or move on to Round 18: Sharks advanced from 24 to 52 vs Dragons (concede 6 in H2), Cowboys advanced from 42 to 74 vs Tigers (conceded 0 in H2), Knights advanced from 30 to 66 vs Dogs (conceded 0 in H2). All those games featured a degree of ruthlessness in the second half that the Eels are yet to truly display.
For the Warriors, I watched the game on replay and employed the fast forward button, but three points can be ventured.
First, the Warriors entered the R18 game in form, after three 30+ point victories in a row over the Dolphins, Raiders, and Dragons. However, and I admit it is an obvious ‘touch wood’ comment, the Warriors overall 6-6 record up to that point is less impressive than commentators suggest. The Warriors’ record - W, L, W, W, W, L, W, L, L, L, W, L - featured games against season also-rans or teams that had not yet found any form (i.e.: Cowboys). However, it remains true that the Warriors’ victory over the Sharks and ultra-competitive losses to the Storm, Broncos and Penrith had revealed a defensive stoicism and slick ball control unseen for years. The Warriors are no doubt a dangerous team, IF they can control the ball, but a full-strength Eels would roll them. That is my bet. How an under-strength Eels will go is the burning question.
Second, though, it might be unfortunate the CommBank game is going to be dry weather, because the Warriors did not handle the wet weather very well. Their R18 stats in the wet weather vs the Bunnies tell most of the story: 13 errors, 5 penalties, a sin bin and a 69% completion rate. The Warriors lost 0-14 to the Chooks in wet weather in R9 at the same venue.
Third, what did the Warriors fans say about the loss to the Bunnies? The Warriors’ fans site, ‘This Warriors Life’, read much like 1EyedEel after a loss, each site seemingly sharing that habit of brutal self-assessment borne of historical disappointment:
- “[the second half] could have been plucked out of any number of disappointing Warriors seasons of yore. They were sloppy, couldn’t get any control in the middle, lacked direction, and played dumb. Their attack was ludicrously lateral for the conditions and their last-tackle options were dreadful despite the opposition repeatedly showing them the blueprint”. THIS WARRIORS LIFE
This kind of honest self-assessment is typical on 1Eyed though not all Parramatta fan-sites practice realism. Not mentioning any names, but it is best to throw shade where it is due, like burning down Cumberland Oval. Helpfully for the Eels, This Warriors Life pointed to key aspects of the Bunnies game of relevance for the Eels: play down the middle. Cook’s late injection and the Warriors under-used bench were cited as contributing to the Warriors losing the middle field contest. Sans our regular spine, the Eels will need to control the middle of the field. Or pray for rain.
Either way, we can expect a high scoring affair, though the Eels benefit from a good recent track record at CommBank.
Time to get ruthless?
The Eels are an improving side that struggles to be ruthless, defined as pushing home their advantage, if measured by second half performances. The Eels can go up a gear but might not yet know how to do reliably access the higher gear. Table 1 maps the Eels’ improvement over three stages.
Table 1: Stages of improvement
Not only have the Eels improved their Win-Loss ratio – from 0-3 to 4-4 and now 5-0 – but the Eels have scored increasingly more points per game but conceded a decreasing number of points per game (through each stage). If defence wins premierships, the Eels have halved their average points conceded per game if we compare Stage 3 vs Stage 1 & 2.
Effectively the Eels thus enter the Warriors game as a team in form.
The Eels also boast the second-best points scored per game, the 6th best points conceded per game, the second best points differential per game, and the Eels possess the second best differential overall (+132).
Yet with players missing, the ‘next man up’ ethos assumes vital importance. Luckily, history is on the Eels’ side: a good recent record against the Warriors.
George Santayana is credited with the famous quote, “Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it”. Hopefully the Warriors are ignorant of history and thus repeat it. That said, we started the preview with Taleb saying the unanticipated drives history, so maybe Mark Twain is more apt, in his quip that “I was educated once - it took me years to get over it”? Yeah yeah I know I should be the last one flagging that quote. C'est la vie!
We should thus turn from deep history to recent history, where we find that, as suggested above, the Eels might be a team in form, but they are also still learning how to be a ruthless team. This week they deal with the unanticipated absence of their entire spine. So let us see where this lack of ruthlessness arises and how the Eels might address it.
Table 2 which captures how the Eels perform depending upon whether the Eels are leading, tied, or trailing at half time. It also hints at their lack of ruthlessness.
Table 2: Leading, tied or trailing at half-time (Eels’ score is always on the left)
A few things stand out here, which go beyond the simple, intuitive, but incorrect assumption that the Eels are a first half point-scoring machine but fade in the second half.
1) Yes, when the Eels lead at half-time, they have a win-loss ratio of 6-1, but when they trail at half-time, they have a win-loss ratio of the reverse, 1-5.
2) But look at the relative points differential for scoring first half to second half: 228 vs 212, or on average (divided by their 16 games) 14.25 vs 13.25. The Eels only ‘drop off’ their scoring, in the second half, on average, very marginally (a drop of 1 point per game between first and second halves).
3) A key point is thus the following. The Eels clearly drop their attacking intensity in second halves where they held a commanding lead in the first half. We can easily see this by comparing second half outputs where they led at half time (71/7=10.14 points) versus where they trailed at half time (104/6=17.3).
There is of course some truth to the interpretation that the Eels score some consolation points in second halves where the opposition relaxes. Similarly, there is truth to the interpretation that the Eels leak some points in second halves or dial down point-scoring where they have the game wrapped up.
Yet it is telling that when the Eels lose - Rounds 1-18 inclusive - their average losing margin is -5.7 points, and the difference between their first and second half outputs leading versus trailing at half-time is +7.16. We can call that numerology – about a try less or more - or ask whether the Eels have figured out when and how to reliably increase their attacking intensity?
But what we do know is that a) the Eels tend to win if the lead at H1, and b) if leading they tend to go into an attacking shell, but c) they are capable of scoring well in the second halves but appear to only do it if under pressure.
Turning to the Eels vs Warriors game specifically, these are two very similar sides in many ways. First, they have identical win-loss records against the current Top vs Bottom 8 teams.
Table 3: Records against (current, as of R18) Top vs Bottom 8
Where the two teams start to depart is that the Eels win by more and lose by less.
The Eels’ average losing margin is 40/7 = -5.7 points, and the Eels’ average winning margin is 172/9 = +19.11. By contrast the Warriors’ average losing margin is 78/7 = -11.14, and the Warriors’ average winning margin is 120/9 = +13.33.
The two teams also attack differently. According to statsinsider.com, the Eels score 46% of their tries on their left side, whereas the Warriors only score 25% of their tries on their left side. The Warriors mirror the Eels' left side (Sivo’s side) attacking potency via the Warriors right side attack, where the Warriors score 46% of their tries. The Eels score 36% of their tries via their right side, but who thinks Cartwright, Moses and Penisini are going to lay idle about that stat?. The following Table 4, drawing data from statsinsider.com, shows where both teams score and concede.
Table 4: Try Location Analysis
Thus, we might expect to see the Warriors attack the Eels in two places.
One, down the Eels’ left side, where the Eels concede 33% of their tries yet the Warriors score 45% of their tries (through their right-side attack). Note only the Dragons (51%) and Broncos (47%) are as right-side attack dominant as the Warriors. While the Eels’ left-side defence is their stronger flank (we concede 43% of our tries on our right side), we normally have Dylan Brown and Lane defending as a unit, so the Warriors will most likely back their right-side attack.
Two, down the middle. The Eels concede 24% of their tries down the middle, which is 6th best middle defence (Panthers concede 23% in the middle; Broncos are 1st at just 12% down the middle). But the Warriors score 30% of their tries down the middle, which is the 3rd best middle-attack (Tigers score 37% through the middle, the Raiders 36%, and Warriors and Manly are tied for 3rd best at 30%). Again, we can expect the Warriors to back their attacking strengths even against what is a strength of the Eels, in part for a similar Brown/Lane ‘type’ reason as above, because RCG is out on Origin duty.
The other way to look at those stats is that we can expect the Warriors to play to their strengths but, if our strengths hold up, we should be able to repel them defensively. By contrast, manufacturing points, without our first-choice spine, is going to be the challenge. The Warriors concede ‘evenly’ across the park, with L/M/R defence about one-third each, whereas the Eels’ left (46%) and right (36%) obviously rely on the middle runners drawing teams inwards before running wide, because the Eels only score 18% of their points through the middle. This technically puts Eels Bottom 4 for points in the middle but look at our company: Bunnies (12%), Sharks (17%) and Broncos (17%). This game might end up purely a contest of whether the Eels’ pack can dominate the middle and create scoring space for their flanks, which has been the Eels’ go-to strategy anyway. This is the Way.
The Bottom Line
One measure of why this R19 Warriors game is an important game for the Eels is simply to look at the remaining draw.
The Eels play: Warriors, Titans, Cowboys, Storm, Dragons, Broncos, Roosters, Penrith, Bye.
The Eels currently sit 6th on 22 points with a +132 differential (9 wins, 7 losses, 2 byes). Add the final round bye and minimum points is 24 points. Assuming 32 points is minimum for making the Top 8 in 2023, the Eels must win 4/8 from their remaining games.
According to statsinsider.com.au, their ‘NRL Club Schedule Difficulty’, the Eels have the toughest draw in the run home and the Warriors the easiest draw in the run home. The Warriors play: Eels, Sharks, Raiders, Bye, Titans, Tigers, Manly, Dragons and Dolphins.
Indeed, they are at polar opposites of the difficulty rankings: the Eels are ranked 1st (toughest) and the Warriors ranked 17th (easiest) runs home. These quantitative rankings (+1.5 vs -1.7 in this case), or difficulty metric, take account of “factors such as the form of their opponents, home and away games, and travel demands [and the] combined winning percentage of all its adversaries”.
However, the movement in ‘difficulty ranking’ is interesting. At the end of 2022, when the draw was released, assessments of the difficulty of the draw were published. The Eels’ 2023 draw was assessed as the 5th toughest draw (discussed in different ways by both zerotackle and nrl.com). The Broncos were ranked as having the toughest draw. See Table 5.
Table 5: Difficulty of 2023 draw, at the start of the season.
Yet if we now turn to the latest statsinsider rankings, the story has changed, and not in a way favourable for the Eels. See Table 6.
Table 6: difficulty of run home, from Round 19 to the end.
Things have got easier for the Broncos (dropping to 3rd toughest run home) but tougher for the Eels (rising to absolute toughest run home).
Yet it is the relative runs home of the Eels’ direct competitors that is the important metric.
As of Round 18, the bottom half of the 8 is a battle between 5th placed Raiders (24 pts but -65 differential), Eels, Bunnies and Warriors (22 points), followed by the Cowboys and Titans (20 points).
Some of our competitors have an easy run home. The Warriors, Souths, Raiders, and Knights are now ranked as having the EASIEST draws or run home (‘bottom 4’ where lower is easier).
Some of our competitors have a tougher run home. The Eels, Titans, Broncos, and Cowboys are now ranked as having the TOUGHEST draws or run home (‘top 4’ where higher is tougher).
Note some teams have seen their draw ease up and some have seen their draw toughen up.
At the start of the season, the Bunnies and Warriors were 3rd and 6th toughest draws respectively, but they have dropped to the easiest runs home.
Conversely, the Raiders started with the absolute easiest draw and now have the 3rd easiest run home, whereas the Cowboys started with the 3rd easiest draw but now have the 4th toughest run home, and the Titans started with the 11th easiest draw but now have the 2nd toughest run home.
The Eels, effectively, are currently sharing the Bottom of the 8 with teams whose run home is easier than ours: the Warriors, Souths and Raiders. The Eels are holding off being displaced from the Top 8 by teams whose run home is as difficult as ours: Cowboys and Titans.
The Eels, in other words, can make it easier for themselves by making it harder for teams with easier draws; in this case, by beating one of those teams, the Warriors. Maybe the rest of a tough draw for Cowboys and Titans will take care of their challenge, and if the Eels beat the odds, they can shoot for displacing teams like Storm and Sharks, each on 24 points but ranked 5th and 8th toughest run home respectively?
The season is at the pointy end, the difficult end, but as Taleb wrote in Antifragility, “difficulty is what wakes up the genius”. Remember, the resilient stay the same but the antifragile get better.
Go our antifragile Eels.
Replies
Awesome preview Daz as usual. This week it feels like our team needs Heart and emotion on their side.
With the footy returning to our traditional home in the heart of Parramatta. Nothing looks quite as good, as our still shiny near new stadium under lights. The sound of the booming speakers as our Blue and Gold gladiators run out onto the field, the music playing. Parra, Parra, Parra - argggggggggg when the Eels are flying they are electrifying. And Electrifying they have been, 5 wins on the trot, Most points scored by any team, moved into 6th on the ladder and all whilst quality players have been out injured, players missing on Origin Duty, Players serving suspensions and debutants stepping up. This week will be no different a makeshift side cobbled together with cohesive bandages, kinesiology tape, with school boys at the helm and players so out of position and depth that its no wonder the punters of this great country have taken out mortgages on their houses to back the Warriors.
Its a week also that we can acknowledge some of our best players, Mitchell Moses, Clint Gutherson, Reagan Campbell Gillard and J'maine Hopggod, have all been selected for their respective state of origin squads. The dead rubber will see our boys miss the game this week. Lets wish them the best, that they incur no injuries and return to us with a steely resolve to take us towards another grandfinal appearence over the comming weeks. Their loss this week and the loss of Dylan Brown will be felt on the paddock, our boys will have to channel all their energy and scrapping skills to claw a victory this week. Coach Brad Arthur and Trent Barrett have their work cut out, a win this week with literally none of our first choice spine would see 6 consective wins, and go down as one of our best, catapaulting us into a possible top 4 spot on the ladder. History says its neigh on impossible, but our Eels are a different team this year, and im sure they have a few surprises in store for a fully fit Warriors side. Whether those surprises will be enough, time will tell.
Shaun Johnson being out does not guarentee us a win, but makes it more 50/50, he is their organiser, he has played every game this year. Having Volkman and Metcalf with a combined 17 games between them. Asi on his own has played more. If Johnson is out i feel good, our Centres and forwards are better, CNK will be lost without Johnson giving ball out the back. Our only danger is their wingers, Sivo is on DWZ, hopefully the occasion of his 100th and even his family coming to watch he will be up and ready. But the Warriors also go to Montoya, Lumelume will need help from Penisini.
We need this win, more so to make the next 7 weeks after feel less pressured to win all of them. If we win with no Gutho, Brown or Moses, then watch out as that is impressive work from the squad and BA. I only hope goal kicking from Sean Russell or Daejarn Asi is up to scratch as it will be a close one.
Amazing work Daz.Love the quotes.
I think the person we will miss the most will be Gutherson. This game gives a lot of players the chance to stamp their identity firmly in the minds of of every coach in the game of their value.An important game for each individual.
The objective should be how they gel as a team.If they get that right it is a huge achievement of all the coaching staff. If they play as individuals it will be a challenge to win this one.
Once again nice write up. I sense Coach Webster is getting a bit cocky with this game. I would say the Eels are the Warriors voodoo team. Big chance here.
Well let's be fair, coming from Penrith and now having success at the Warriors, the place where careers die of course you are going to have some cockiness. Honesty the Warriors need that in a coach. But i think 2024/25 is where they will hit their peak.
Great effort in putting all this together. Heart says Eels to win but head says Warriors. It will take a huge effort from the Eels to win this game. They have homeground as an advantage and an extra weeks rest. If the Warriors don't have Johnson in their side that will be a big plus for the Eels. I'll say Eels in a close game. Eels by 6 points. Man of the match Hopgood. Not sure where Eels points will come from but maybe Matterson, Asi, Penisini, Simmonsen, Russell
A nice touch saying we wish Mr and Mrs Johnson a safe and healthy delivery. I want to add that they take their time too, no rush getting that kid out, Shaun can catch up on Kayo.
If Johnson doesn't play we're in with a chance. He generates most of their points.
Simply brilliant Daz, love your work mate!
Shaun Johnson confirmed - definitely playing
-
1
-
2
-
3
-
4
of 4 Next