R19 v Raiders: Squeaky Bum Time

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Tomorrow night, someone's bubble will be pricked. To use a Sir Alex Ferguson coined phrase, the Eels are approaching "Squeaky Bum Time". The Raiders, too.

The Eels need to keeping winning to give themselves some chance of staying in the historically-critical top-four come finals time, and to keep developing into a more complete product.

They will also be shooting for four straight wins over the Raiders for the first time since the Raiders' inception in 1982.

The Raiders' season hinges on a knife's edge. They are the closest to the top-eight since round 10 when they were 8th. And the Eels would be a signifcant confidence-building scalp.

They've been one of the season's biggest dissappointments after being tauted as contenders. Are they finally click into gear, leaving their dramas behind?

9282436876?profile=RESIZE_710xTeams

For Thursday night, 22th July, Cbus Super Stadium, at 7:50pm

Eels: Jake or No Jake? 

1. Clint Gutherson, 2. Maika Sivo, 3. Will Penisini (debuting), 4. Waqa Blake, 5. Blake Ferguson, 6. Dylan Brown, 7. Jake Arthur, 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard, 9. Reed Mahoney, 10. Junior Paulo, 11. Isaiah Papali’i, 12. Ryan Matterson, 13. Nathan Brown

Bench: 14. Marata Niukore, 15. Shaun Lane, 16. Oregon Kaufusi, 17. Will Smith
Reserves: 18. Haze Dunster, 19. Bryce Cartwright, 20. Makahesi Makatoa, 21. Joey Lussick

Ins:    Blake Ferguson (the veteran, Jason Stratham returns to prove a point), Joey Lussick, Junior Paulo, Makahesi Makatoa, 
Outs: Moses (back), Tom Opacic (compassionate grounds)

Head Coach: Brad "The Rock" Arthur

Raiders: 

1. Jordan Rapana, 2. Harley Smith-Shields, 3. Jarrod Croker, 4. Sebastian Kris, 5. Semi Valemei, 6. Matt Frawley, 7. Sam Williams, 8. Josh Papalii, 9. Josh Hodgson, 10. Emre Guler, 11. Corey Harawira-Naera, 12. Hudson Young, 13. Ryan Sutton

Bench: 14. Tom Starling, 15. Matthew Timoko, 16. Iosia Soliola 17. Joseph Tapine
Reserves: 18. Caleb Aekins, 19. Ryan James, 20. Siliva Havili, 21. Trey Mooney

Ins: Caleb Aekins, Harley Smith-Shields, Matt Frawley, Siliva Havili, Trey Mooney
Outs: Jack Wighton (injury), Elliot Whitehead (injury), Xavier Savage (injury, season), Bailey Simonsson (injury, season), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (injury, season).

Head Coach: Ricky "mild-mannered" Stuart, ahead versusing Arthur.

9282450478?profile=RESIZE_710xReferee Adam Gee: The First time. Despite being an NRL referee for 8 years, since 2013, Gee has never refereed a Raiders and Eels game. However, both the Eels and Raider have reasonable overall records under Gee. The Eels winning 62.5% of games, and 5 of the last 6. The Raiders winning 58.3% and 4 of the last 5.

9282417098?profile=RESIZE_710xRaiders' forward leader and enforcer Josh Papalii has also scored 3 tries in the last 4 games against the Eels. He's a critical part of the Raiders' chances. Whilst the Eels welcome back Paulo to shore up the front, where the battle will be won or lost. 9282452467?profile=RESIZE_710x

In a year of living dangerously, where serious injuries seems to be on the rise, Both teams have been hit by injuries to key players and a reshuffling of respective spines and edges. When it rains, it pours for the Raiders, they've lost dangerman Wighton (above), and also their third fullback with exciting prospect Xavier Savage out for the season, following the injuries to Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Bailey Simonsson.

9282418290?profile=RESIZE_710xFor the Eels, the loss of co-leader Moses is a significant body blow, and the entire campaign rests on his return. And as such, he will remain on his 99th NRL game as the third highest scorer in Eels' history after Mick Cronin and Luke Burt. 

Left v Right Reshuffles: With Jake & Fergo back, and Penisini debuting could open vulnerabilities 

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With Jake Arthur in the halves for Moses, to notch his fifth game, he'll need to adress question marks over his defence first and foremost. It's also likely he'll be a target the Raiders try to isolate. And the reshuffled Eels right-edge defence with Fergo Stratham back to prove a point and Penisini debuting (whether he plays on the right or Waqa switches back) could prove problematic defensively given the Raiders left edge attack has been their most lucrative.

Conversely, a significant portion of the game could come down to how effective the Eels' potent left edge attack is against where the Raiders' leak the most points on the right edge, too.

Last 5: Raiders on a roll finally, or a false dawn?

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Canberra have had a resurgence, winning the last 2 games, scoring 30 or more for an average score of 32 - 17. Albeit one was against a depleted Manly and the other an inconsistent Sharks. 

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Last week, the Raiders continued in their winning ways defeating the Sharks 34-18 and looking impressive in patches with plenty of ball movement, a plethora of second phase play, and offloads (22, double their average). If they can recapture some of that they could ask questions of the Eels' defence. 

For the Eels last week, despite defeating the Titans 26-8 they let the Titans off the hook in the second half whom won it 8-6. It's not the first time the Eels have lacked that killer-punch, and fading in and out of matches. Still, there were some good individual performances from Mahoney, Matterson, Gutherson, Kaufusi and the two Browns. 

Co-incidently, the Raiders were whiped by the Titans two weeks ago, in round 16, 44-6. If the footy gods follows a logical script, the Eels would get the points and cake before they get off the bus. Perhaps, even the same bus, given the Eels and Raiders are in the same Covid-bubble.

Thursday Night: Both have had recent success

The Eels have have played more than double the amount of Thurday night games than the Raiders have, since 2018 (12-5).

The Raiders have won 4 of their last 5 Thursday night games since 2018. The Eels have won 5 of their last 6 Thurday night matches, including two against their deadly nemesis, The Storm over the last two years. Their only loss in that stretch was in round 16 last year to their other nemesis, Souths (0-38).

CBUS Super Stadium: A First

The Eels and Raiders have never played at CBUS Super Stadium. This is the first time. And both teams are on a mini-roll here.

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The Eels have won the last three at CBUS and are shooting for four straight for the first time, and haven't lost here since round 3, 2017.

The Raiders have won the last three games at CBUS (beating Warriors, Titans twice). The Raiders are shooting for four straight for the first time. The Raiders haven't lost at CBUS since round 1, 2018.

Home and Away: Raiders better away, Eels doing both well

The Eels broke a 15 year hoodoo defeating Canberra in Canberra earlier this year in the last meet. However, to put that in perspective, the Raiders' home record has been surprisingly poor this year  (3-6; wins v losses). The Raiders have performed better away (4-4)

Conversely, the Eels have been good both at home (6-2) and away (7-2). In recent years, the opposite has been the case. It's been a strange year.

Big Six Scalps

Realistically, though the Storm and Panthers are ahead of everyone, there are probably only six teams who are contenders in varying degrees: the Storm, Panthers, Souths, Eels, Roosters, and Manly. The current top 6.

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The Eels have had a good season to date, but they need to start improving against the contenders.

Of concern is, the Eels have won only two of five against the Big Six (beating the Storm in their best win of the season and the Roosters, but losing to Manly, Souths, and the Panthers). 

However, the Raiders have been even more unconvincing, winning only one of six against the Big Six. And that sole win was against a heavily disarmed, depleted Manly (missing the Trbovejic brothers and DCE). They've lost to the Panthers, Eels, Souths, Storm, and Roosters. 

Stat Attack 

Well, it's colorful, but are there any comments or interpretions on the stats below? Or does anyone look at this? I didn't think, so. Moving on...
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Bottom Line

Despite the loss of Moses, this is another "should win" game for the heavily-favorited Eels, especially against a weakened Raiders' outfit - with no excuses.

But, it's not without its dangers. It's close to a must win for the Raiders. They're in a log jam of seven teams fighting for 7th and 8th position, along with the Dragons, Sharks, Knights,Titans, Tigers, Cowboys - so a loss could sabotage to their chances. They can continue their chances of finishing 7th or 8th. In a frustrating, see-sawing drama-packed season with dramas, that would be an incredible feat. 

If the Raiders fight like men-possessed, and win the physical contest upfront, be in the Eels' face, hustling and bustling - something the Eels don't always cope with well - they could pull off a wicked upset. Despite their weakened spine, and reshuffled edge, the Raiders still have plenty of dangermen upfront Papalii, Hodgson, Corey Harawira-Naera, and Tapine off the bench, and now-fullback Rapana occasionally has his brilliant moments.

An Eels' loss could also prove pivotal with more serious consequences down the line. Not, just for the historically-critical top-four aspirations, but their confidence and belief.

Throughout the year, they've shown glimpses of brilliance, but often lacked that focused killer-instinct, fading in and out of games, as noted in many previews especially when pressured. Last week showed those worrying features linger. And as the Eye of the Storm approaches: they face every contender in five of the next 6 weeks. Roosters (round 20), Souths (round 21), Manly (round 22) Panthers (round 24),Melbourne (round 25). Will this leave them battle-hardened for the finals, or dig the dagger of nagging doubts deeper?

We're approaching make or break time.

Brief Post-Game notes:

Well I was wrong about:

  • this game being a should win game for us. Raiders deserved it. We're soft. Lucky I didn't try to predict a winning score.

I was right about:

  • The weakened Raiders being able to pull of a wicked upset if they played like men possessed. 
  • JA's defence being a target (blind Freddy knows that) especially isolated.
  • As well as a significant portion of the game coming down to how our left edge performs or is defended against. Rapana's match-winning stop on Sivo in the dying moments was just typical of how much they wanted it.

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Replies

  • I see the Raiders have also lost young Savage to injury. He was electric in the games he played and I reckon he could be anything. They really have been unlucky with injury and that backline could look a lot better. And then you have the loss of their gun pommy halfback.

    • Exactly, ME. Well said. Raiders have had a tough year. Injuries, frustrating losing runs & internal dramas inter alia (e.g. George William's exit & Tapine wife's social media) have curtailed their season. As long as we win, I'll feel for them later.

  • This reply was deleted.
    • Thanks Brissy. Appreciate the kind words. I hope the script goes to plan, too! With the Eels, who knows - I always feel heartbreak is waiting around the corner.

  • I been saying this about the eels for a couple of years now.Stats to me can be very misleading because we are where we are with them.The eye test for me is different.

    What isn't measured is our ability to play for 80 minutes and putting together a game that stands up under finals pressure.This is something that needs to be seen and something that stats won't bare out.

    What I'd like to see from Parra the final 7-8 weeks of this season is thee ability to put teams away late.

    We've really only shown that once this year against a top side and that was against Melbourne and our next opponents.This is why all in sundry don't trust our footy side because when we have games well in hand and we keep the door slightly ajar instead of slamming it shut.

    I need to see us do more of this and starting with this game on Thursday night.

    Build and continue to build.

    • Coryn, I agree on the eye test idea. We all literally see the Eels falling off the pace sometimes within games. 
      What I would say, though, is do the stats indicate the Eels' path to NOT fading out of games in periods or NOT playing for 80 mins? The Eels rank in the bottom 4 for sin bins, general errors and handling errors, and are middling performers when it comes to ineffective tackles and conceding linebreaks. Translated, the Eels either turn the ball over and concede territory or concede territory by not locking the ball carrier up. With the way momentum works in the 6 again era, do the Eels put themselves under pressure in these ways? If they can turn those elements of their game around, is that how they move to playing 80 mins and not falling asleep in passages of games?

      • I'm a guy who reads stats and then immediately apply a given stat to what my eyes tell me and then come up with a conclusion.

        Also try and keep it as simple as possible.

        Playing a reasonably high level of sport myself I try and keep things as simple as possible so under pressure I could make quicker decisions.

        Thats looking at it from when I used to play my given sport itself granted that's going back awhile now but thats how I used to operate and it shaped my thinking that same way.

    • Yep, Coryn. Well said. Agree. Stats can be cherry picked & manipulated to suit a narrative, not revealing the entire elephant.

      For me, the 2 from 5 record against teams in the top 6 is revealing and a red flag. And we face ALL the heavyweights over the next 6 weeks. If we don't draw a line in the sand and win a fair share of them, we're not fair dinkum. Top 4 won't protect us.

       

      • Yeah, but even 2 from 5 stat doesn't tell the full story. We lost to the Panthers by a point and should've won. I'm actually more confident of us going up against the Storm or the Panthers, it's the Bunnies & Manly that keep me awake at night. 

  • Good blog again HOE Interesting you raised the issue of the number of injuries  a lot of clubs are facing. I can, t recall a year that has had that many

    I wonder if playing careers for players will be shortened from here on. I would think the NRL are going to  have a serious look at this in the off season and more rule changes will come into play  next season. 

    I think we played well against the  Titans  last week. If we can replicate that we should  win. No doubt Fergo will be out there to prove a point as will Penisi 

    • Thanks TAD. Good points. Later, I might have a look at NRL Physio and find that post where he noted the significant increase in serious injuries and failed HIA's this year. Fact check needed.

      Also, agree: Fergo has a lot to prove. Let's see if an old dog can learn some new tricks.

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