Eels Blogs

“For as long as we can ride it. There ain't no reins on this one,” said Ennis (Heath Ledger) to Jack (Jake Gyllenhaal), in Brokeback Mountain (2005). Brokeback Mountain is the story of a secretive romance between two sheepherders in the 1960s. Straight and gay-squeamish cis-men everywhere found the movie uncomfortable, if they saw it at all, but the famous reviewer Roger Ebert was right in writing that the story is a universal one about forbidden love. It is about having to deny a great passion. Like remaining an Eels fan, because despite being consistent enough to have spent “80-90 weeks in a row in the Top 8” (Brad Arthur, presser, 9 July), watching the Eels play is always a parade of disappointment waiting to happen. The Eels are inconsistent both within a game and from one game to the next. The Eels consistently under-perform. We perpetually deny them favouritism to avoid more disappointment.

But the Eels are for Eels fans a great passion, yet a passion we subtly deny, like a forbidden love. Which of us has not sat watching the team play and had times during a game where we are death-riding them in our mind, and sometimes audibly for all to hear? Which of us has not joined in on the joke the opposition fan makes, that the Eels will fold when it counts, or not turn up when they should? The Ennis-Jack exchange above is thus symbolic of being an Eels fan. In that exchange Jack is the optimist and thinks they will be able to eventually come out into the open. But Ennis does not think it possible, and that neither of them has control over where the relationship goes. We are all Ennis. Thankfully not Michael f***ing Ennis. But we are all Ennis in just not knowing where this Eels-relationship is going. Welcome to Round 19.

Teams

Thursday 21 July, Commbank Stadium, Parramatta, 7:50pm (AEDT). Lands of the Barramattagal People. Referee: Gerard Sutton.

Eels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Waqa Blake 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali'i 13. Ryan Matterson 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Jakob Arthur 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Marata Niukore 18. Ky Rodwell 19. Ofahiki Ogden 20. Bryce Cartwright 21. Tom Opacic 22. Sean Russell.

Head coach: Brad Constantia Arthur.

Broncos: 1. Tesi Niu 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Brenko Lee 5. Jordan Pereira 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Corey Jensen 9. Jake Turpin 10. Payne Haas 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Cory Paix 15. Kobe Hetherington 16. Thomas Flegler 17. Keenan Palasia 18. Deine Mariner 19. Zac Hosking 20. Rhys Kennedy 21. Delouise Hoeter 22. Te Maire Martin.

Head coach: Kevin Bloody Walters

Notes: Matterson returns at lock, with Niukore reverting to the bench. Jacob Arthur is the utility that is not a utility, or as Ennis said repeatedly in Brokeback Mountain, “Jack F***ing Twist”, which means whatever Ennis wants it to mean at the time, so insert your own meaning into JA on the bench against a pack with four Origin players (Haas, Capewell, Carrigan, Flegler). Note the Eels pack has three Origin plyers but two were dropped. For the Broncos, Oates, Capewell and Carrigan return from Origin duty and a small rest, Haas and Paix return from injury, and Turpin starts at hooker for the injured Walters. Note the Eels get a small reprieve out wide, which is always appreciated given the Eels’ porous defence on the flanks, With Herbie Farnworth still out (replaced by Lee) and Selwyn Cobbo out due to concussion (replaced by Perieria). Thus, Lee (rather than Farnworth) will run at Blake and Pereira (not Cobbo) will run at Sivo. It would have been fun to watch Cobbo and Sivo mark each other? Penisini will have his hands full with Staggs.

Observations from Last Week

Eels (vs Warriors), 28-18 (W), 49% possession, 80% completion rate, 3 line breaks, 19 tackle breaks, 6 offloads, 17 missed tackles, 10 ineffective tackles, 11 errors, 7 penalties conceded, ? inside 10 meters, 4 ruck infringements, 0 sin bins.

Broncos (vs Titans), 16-12 (W), 48% possession, 86% completion rate, 5 line breaks, 34 tackle breaks, 11 offloads, 57 missed tackles, 15 ineffective tackles, 6 errors, 5 penalties conceded, 0 inside 10 meters, 1 ruck infringements, 0 sin bins.

Eels/Warriors highlights HERE.

Broncos/Titans highlights HERE.

In Round 18 the Eels led the Warriors 28-6 with 10 minutes remaining but conceded two tries in the final 10 minutes, just as the Eels had conceded two tries in the final 10 minutes against the Tigers in Round 17. In Round 18 the Broncos led the Titans 16-12 with 15 minutes to go, had a try disallowed with 15 to go, then the Titans had a try disallowed with exactly 10 minutes to go, before an otherwise depleted Broncos held out for the final 10 minutes. You see the difference?

Eels are average

Bear with me. The Eels have a good record against the Broncos, they are playing at home, they are at full strength, and they are aware they have a point to prove to themselves, their fans, and their coach. They also sit 6^th on the ladder due to their +36 for/against but are equal 4^th on 24 points with Melbourne and Broncos and could easily be equal 3^rd on 26 with Sharks if results go their way in Round 19 (Panthers beat Sharks, Bunnies beat Storm, Eels beat Broncos). Ladder-wise the Eels are sitting pretty, given how inconsistent they have been in 2022. So, as The Joker (Heath Ledger) said in The Dark Knight (2008), “why so serious?” Because, statistically speaking, the Eels are average, and now is as good a time as ever to improve.

First, the good news. The Eels have a good recent record against the Broncos overall and have split the spoils at home.

Second, the each-way-bet news. Both Eels and Broncos are gunning for a third straight victory. The Eels have beaten teams they should have beaten (Tigers, Warriors), reversing a trend where they lost to teams they should soundly defeat (Tigers, Dogs). The Broncos lost to the Storm and Cowboys during the disruptions of the State of Origin period (all those teams were disrupted, but let’s face it, the Broncos lost to two Top 8 teams). After wins against teams they should have beaten and did beat (Dragons, Titans), both Eels and Broncos go into this game aiming for three straight wins.

Third, the bad news. The Eels have as poor record in Thursday night games of late, while the Broncos have a good record in Thursday night games.

But this is the first time the Eels have met the Broncos at home on a Thursday night. History is here to be made! Moses is maybe aware of his own little slice of history on offer? And Sivo too, a bellwether of success or failure?

Fourth, the possibly very bad news. The Eels are average. Literally. You might not spot this from the overall statistics. The Eels are 6^th, for Christ’s sake. But the defense and discipline of the Eels has been, as the eye test of any fan can attest, the undoing of their otherwise quite good attack. Ironically, it has been the pure consistency of the attack that has stood out: the Eels have broken the 30-point barrier just 3 times in 17 games, but the 20-point barrier 13 from 17 games. There lowest scores have been 4, 4 and 12 in three of their six losses, and 16, 20 and 24 in the other three losses. The Eels rarely blow a team out of the water, neither piling on points nor defending well enough to stop the opposition from building a competitive tally, but they do pressure the scoreboard consistently enough to discount their otherwise poor defense (ranked 10^th). Watching the Eels defend in their own 20m zone is like when Jack said to Ennis in Brokeback Mountain “I wish I knew how to quit you”.

Ironically, for an inconsistent team in terms of results, the Eels are brutally consistent in other ways. For instance, the Eels concede the first try 70% of the time and have conceded points in the final 10 minutes more times than they have not. Sometimes they win regardless (Melbourne, Penrith), sometimes it beats them (Sharks, Tigers), sometimes it is just bloody annoying (Tigers, Warriors), and other times disgusting (Cowboys).

 Another way the Eels are consistent is to be in the Top 8 but consistently at the bottom of that Top 8 in statistical performance. So, when BA praises the team for their 80-90 weeks in the Top 8, most of us were probably tempted to greet that good news in the same way The Joker (Heath Ledger) greeted the good news of Commissioner Gordon’s promotion in The Dark Knight (2008), a slow but malevolent clap.

With due credit to The Rugby League Eye Test we can see where the Eels sit in some common sense measures.

The Eels are in the bottom part of the Top 8 teams (Brisbane and Melbourne below them) in terms of where they play the ball: statistically average, for one, but possibly this ‘tackled in own half’ stat reflects rather conservative play out of their own end and maybe Sivo being out until recently? Maybe it is no coincidence that the Eels escaped their half via a scintillating kick-return try against the Warriors via Sivo?

Another stat, again with due credit to The Rugby League Eye Test, is percentage of minutes played with scores even/leading/trailing.

Note the Eels are again at the bottom of the Top 8 teams, this time literally. The Eels spend the most time of any Top 8 team trailing their opponent. The Eels spend the least time of any Top 8 team leading their opponent. Aside from Brisbane, the Eels spend the most time even with their opponent. This chart maybe captures that sense that Eels fans have that there are few times of comfort in a game, when we feel the Eels are in control and we can “call” the game. By comparison to their fellow Top 8 teams, the Eels keep us on the edges of our seats, wondering if it is going to be a win or loss. Not just because we are anxious and have been burned too often, but because quite literally the Eels are the worst in the Top 8 for having thew game in the bag. If you peruse The Rugby League Eye Test a little more, here is another interesting stat: in Rounds 1-11 (Eels had won 7 from 11), the Eels were ranked 4^th best for scoring unanswered points, but also 3^rd worst for giving up points when leading. The Eels are literally hot and cold, which averages out to, well, average.

The Bottom Line

As Jack said in Brokeback Mountain, “Brokeback got us good, don’t it?” Go Eels.