Eels Blogs

It's Manly and Parra again.  And at Fortress Brookvale, Manly are clear favourites, $1.48 to $2.65 with sportsbet at the time of writing this, and seem to be in the box seat if they play to the best of their ability, because super-star Tom Trbojevic is back. 

In my view, the Eels will need to play even better, this week, than last week's much lauded "mature" effort against the determined never-say-die Tigers.

For the Eels, R17 win over the Tigers was one of the few occasions in 2019, if only occasion, we have absorbed decent pressure from a team that wanted to win - badly - had less than 50% possession, played below our best but still managed to win. We made the most or our opportunities.

Moses'  boot was calm and calculated, to match his improved game, where he pauses more, without the frantic Russian Roulette game he often played. And the Tigers also made more errors.  But the Silvertails are a more threatening attacking team than the Tigers, and a better defensive unit. Also Marsters and Mybe kick at 66% and 50%, respectively at the bottom end of the top 50 goal kickers in the NRL; whilst Moses, DCE and Garrick kick around the same percentage this year (83%, 81%, 80%). 

This R18 game is critical, as there is congestion around the table’s midriff.  A win would see us leapfrog Manly to a probable 5th. A loss could see us under pressure down the track, even if we may remain at 6th. But for Manly a loss could see them fall to 7th if the Knights beat the Roosters, so they will be on their game, especially in view of Hasler’s criticism of their lacklustre narrow 21-20 loss against Souths. He described them being “off the pace” all game, and letting Souths roll down the park too easily. They should be up for this one.  Five points on the game: 

1. First, the good news: Arthur has been a bad luck charm for both Manly and Hasler. 4 years, 22.2%, 37.6%

The last time Hasler beat Arthur was 4 years ago.  

Back in R19, 2015 when the Dogs beat Eels 28-4 at Stadium Australia. May that long continue.  The querky, Ghandi quoting, erudite Hasler has one of his worst records against Arthur, whom is as different to the entertaining Hasler as he is Ghandi; notwithstanding Hasler's far superior multi-premiership winning coaching record. But Arthur has proven to be a bad luck charm; a boogee man of sorts. Hasler has only won 37.6% against him, 3 wins from 8 games, over 4 years between 2014-17. Only performed worse against Paul Green (16.7%), Anthony Siebold (1 match, 1 loss), and Tent Robinson (25%), with better records against superocaches of the ilk of Bellamy and Bennett teams (59.3%, 41%).  

Under Arthur the Eels have won 7 from 9 matches against Manly since 2014: LWWWWWWLW. Losing only 22.2%. 

Also, despite our medicocre away record (3-5) this year, under Arthur's tenure we have won 3 from 5 at Manly's fortress. It's almost the reverse fortune of our overall history to Manly, where in 152 games, over 72 years, we have only won 36.8% of games. With a points differential of – 751, having lost more games to Manly than any other team. Maybe that's also in part because Manly have struggled in Arthur's time, only making the finals in 2014 and 2017; but so have we. And we're both rebounding. Perhaps we're rebuilding, even more. 

 2. Four in a row: only once before

We have only won 4 in a row or better once, under Arthur’s tenure; now in his 6th year. Back in R22, 2017, two years ago, beating the Dogs 20-4 at Stadium Australia; in the last match of a 6-match winning sequence. Ironically, that was against Hasler. Again.  

 3. Checcin: don’t expect any away game favours

The last time we were at Brookvale, in R2, 2018, we were under Checchin. The result was 54-0 to the home team. 

LLLLLWW: Two home wins,  5 away losses. That's our recent record under him. 

The only other time we have only played under Checchin at Brookvale, in 2008 over 11 years, was oddly enough when we beat Hasler's Manly side 19-12, in R10, 2010, under Daniel Anderson. We were referreed by  Jared Maxwell and a younger Cecchin back then; so it's possible. Overall though, Arthur, in his 17 games under Checchin since 2014 has won 9 of 17; over 50%. That’s better than our very poor overall record against him in 11 years, since 2008.  

4. Tom Turbo factor: WWWWW

Despite Tom's injury affected 2019 campaign, Manly have never lost in the five matches he has played. 

That's his best club winning record since he debuted on the wing in R5, 2015, over 4 and a half years ago. 

He is one of the best players in the game:  good enough to overcome bad luck charms.  As an aside, we have won all 4 games Nathan Brown has been our starting lock in 2019 (out of 5 games he has played). He’s vitally important to shoring up our middle defence and acting as an important ally for our playmakers, with his ever improving ball playing skills, maturity and sense for the game. 

5. To win we need to address our weaknesses

Defence has been an issue all year. Around the middle, rucks, especially without Nathan Brown, and on our line. 

Last week it  was our left edge that was brutally exposed by the Tigers: letting in 3 tries, almost 4. 

 Hoffman, astonishingly, missed 8 tackles, and with both his lack of speed and being caught too close to Dylan Brown/Lane, compressing the defence, leaving too much space out wide for Sivo to defend alone. Thompson, Matterson, Marsters, Marshall, Brooks and Nofo took advantage of those deficiencies. 

Ironically, Hoffman was playing in R2 last year, on the wing, when we were anniliated by Manly; by 54 points. And Sironen, who is likely to face our left edge, scored two tries on that fateful day. It's logical to conceive, a hard running Sironen targetting the space between Dylan and Hoffman, creating lots of space on the outside for Sivo to defend alone.  

Add DCE, Tom Trbovejic, brother Jake, a nuggety in-form Suli tank on Hasler's special home-order diet, and it's not hard to imagine an avalanche of points could flow - given the same opportunities the Tigers had. 

Also if rumours of Ferguson being injured are correct, it's a big blow. Sivo and Ferguson are critical for our go-forward, leading our post contact metres, and tackle busts. But to an extent Sivo's usual effectiveness was taken out of the equation last week, due to the Tigers clever strategies, and our left edge defensive issues.  They’re especially important to counter Manly go-forward, whom out-guns our pack for metres, post contact metres and tackle breaks. The forwards will need to man up against the Sea Eagles; to provide a platform. Another issue is Mahoney’s lack of dummy half running. Last week, and generally; one of the worst for rakes in the NRL (as well as leading missed tackles). Improving this would add more to our attack and make it less predictable.

Another young gun Dylan Brown, was also strangely off his game, with a number of costly errors, perhaps because of his preceding long lay off with injury affecting his confidence and match fitness, but he has helped relieve all the playmaking pressures Moses in the past. And he'll need to be on. 

The challenge is greater this week. 

But will we overcome the odds, man-up again “shoulder to shoulder” going up another level, or revert to old losing habits: the soft underbelly?