Eels Blogs

Here we go Again. Manly and Parra. A top eight clash. Two hated arch-rvals with a long history. Two rising forces of 2021 collide. Two confident and in-form teams.

Eels are 5 from the last 5, Manly are 4 from 5 only losing against the might of the Panthers.

It's an electrified Eels outift that has scored more points after ten rounds than any Eels outift, meeting an almost-unstoppable, turbo-charged Eagles. 

The Eels have met the Silvertails more than any other team in the competion - except for the Dogs. And Manly have almost double the amount of wins over the Eels (92-58).

The high-flying Eels are looking for 6 straight wins for only the sixth time this century.

Whilst the souring Eagles are looking for 3 straight wins and to swoop on another of its prey continuing its rise up the ladder - from the basement - not too long ago. Manly have been transformed by the return of Tom Trbovejic five weeks ago.

Tom-Turbo's Great Influence

Tom Trbovejic must be close to, if not the most, influential player in the game at present. How good he is? Is he currently the best fullback in the game and if not one of the best in the game?

In 2021, Without him Manly were sitting second last, had won 1 from 5 - scored 9.4 points per game, conceding 33.6 points on average. With a points differential of -140.

With him, from round 6, Manly are now in 7th place, have won 4 from 5 - scoring 36 points per game, conceding 14.4 points on average.

They've clawed back almost all of the monstrous negative differential pre-Tom.

Since Manly became Turbo-charged they've conquered all before them, except for the undefeated Panthers - outscoring the Eels even.

As influential as he is, Tom Trbojevic has only won 2 from 7 against the Eels, scoring only 1 try. He last tasted a win against the Eels in 2019. Two years ago.

Teams

Sunday, 4.05pm, Bankwest Stadium, Sydney

Eels:
1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Tom Opacic 4. Waqa Blake 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Jakob Arthur 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown

Bench: 14. Oregon Kaufusi 15. Shaun Lane 16. Joey Lussick 17. Bryce Cartwright
Reserves: 18. Ray Stone 19. Keegan Hipgrave 20. Haze Dunster 21. Jordan Rankin

Injuries:
Marata Niukore (suspension, round 12)
Dylan Brown (suspension, round 13)
Will Smith (thumb, round 13-14)

Sea Eagles:
1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Brad Parker 4. Morgan Harper 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Cade Cust 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Marty Taupau 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Josh Schuster 13. Jake Trbojevic

Bench: 14. Moses Suli 15. Zac Saddler 16. Sean Keppie 17. Toafofoa Sipley
Reserves: 18. Ben Trbojevic 19. Tevita Funa 20. Christian Tuipulotu 21. Jorge Taufua

Injuries:
Karl Lawton (Achilles, round 12)
Dylan Walker (hamstring, round 14)
Curtis Sironen (knee, round 14)
Kieran Foran (broken hand, round 14-15)
Jack Gosiewski (foot, round 17)
Josh Aloiai (wrist, round 20)
Andrew Davey (knee, season)
Morgan Boyle (shoulder, season)
Manase Fainu (stood down, indefinite)

Head Coaches: Brad Arthur (Eels) and Des Hasler (Manly)

Last 8 years: Eels dominant; mainly close games

The Eels have had the edge in recent years, winning 6 of the last 8.

Over the last 8 years, Arthur's Eels have won 9 from 13 games against Manly, his former club.

During that time, 9 of 13 have been close - decided by 1-12 points.

Despite the Eels' dominance the average score has been close at 22.4 - 19. Will we see a blowout? A close game this time round? Comebacks?

Notably, two out of three of those blowouts (a 44-10 Eels win and a 54-0 loss) happened in 2018 when both teams had annus horribilis years - we were last and Manly second last. So, it's not highly relevant. The probabilities are it will be close 1-12 - though under Vlandy's new VRL we could end up seeing a wider margin. He prefers blowouts. And he usually gets what he wants, regardless of what anyone thinks.

VRL. Blowouts are the most they've been in ten years and close games the least (thanks Snake).

Additionally, depsite the Eels dominance Manly won in the last meet at Lottoland. Here, a Tom-Turbo-less Manly raced to a 16-0 lead after 16 minute in the Last meet against the in round 10, 2020 at Lottoland - and only just hung on for a 22-18 win. With 4 tries a piece, Garrick's superior goalkicking over Gutho's being the difference - with Moses out injured.

This week Tom is in as is Moses. And it's at our spirital home where we have won 21 from 28 (75%).

At Eels' Spiritual Home against Manly- yet to lose in 8 years

At this ground, the Eels have won the last 5 against Manly (2 as Bankwest, 3 as Parramatta Stadium (2014-16).

The Eels last lost at this ground to Manly 8 years ago. At the then Parramatta Stadium, 6-40, in round 21, 2013.

Last week: Tragic Round

The biggest talking point in last week's round 10 Magic Round was the Greek-Gestapo "crackdown". 14 sin bins, 3 send offs, 25 reports, 24 charges. However, despite all that only 2 players didn't pass the HIA. And for some reason, we didn't score a sin bin or send off. The Wonderlustful White Jersey's may have done the trick.

Gus Gould and Peter V'landys. Head-to-head. Not for the kids, but I'm with Gus, Barrett, and Gallen on this. However, let's move on from that before this review becomes Tolstoyvized.

Back on Manly. They wiped their backsides all over the Broncos 50-6, leaving skidmarks. Walters might end up bald with black-n-blue eye sockets soon. Tom Turbo - 2 tries, 2 try assists, 175m. Just Another Day. Say no more.

The Eels overcame the Warriors 34-18, but not without hiccups. 

Often-called "fast-starters" by media commentators, the Eels played with fire and intensity in the first twenty minutes to be up 24-0, with over 70% possession, despite the Warriors aggression. The Eels direct power game was on show.

Moses was also brilliant and ripped them open early on. Moses' direct running game was on show early on (and we don't see enough of) as is his improved passing game. As noted before, his kicking game is the best it's been. His defence has also improved out of sight. He's more selective these days, perhaps maturing. He's in career best form, along with Mahoney who has more try assists than any other rake. Gutho too has been in career best form. For a while. But, this year he has more support.

And we sorely need Moses to continue to evolve as our co-leader along with The King - our hopes rest on it.

Reed Mahoney talks to nrl.com about the Eels, his game and how to Stop Tom this weekend

However, as we've seen in other games this year, the Eels flattened out in the second half and the Warriors came within 10 points (18-28) with 18 minutes left after some Walsh brilliance. It was offset by the Warriors who were often their own worst enemies making almost double the errors of the Eels (15-8) and not completing their sets, uncharacteristically (ranked 1st for completions).

Again. History repeated itself. And the Eels sealed it at the death, beyond any doubt with 5 minutes left by Eel-of-the-moment Jake Arthur who may have inherited more from his mother in terms of looks and calmness.

Jake Arthur had an admirable debut. 1 try and 1 try assist, equalling Dylan's 8 game stats. Talented. Calm. Level-headed. Fit. Hard-working. Well done. And congratulations to Brad Arthur and the entire Arthur family. A proud moment.

Bad Habits Continue: Flat periods; Letting the opposition back in

In his review of the Eels' Warriors' game Peter Sterling noted:

"We [the Eels] got comfortable. And it's not a good place to be. You need to be on edge during the course of a game in a good way. And I just felt like we sat back on that lead and ... invited the Warriors back into it, which was a concern."

As noted on numerous occasions this year, this has been a trend. We still seem to be lacking killer instinct to go on with it (Storm, R2; Sharks, R3; Tigers, R4; Dogs, R8; Roosters, R9; Warriors, R10). We also saw the biggest dip against the Saints in our only loss to date.

This is a dangerous habit, culturally. Focused determination and killer instinct often defines the greatest and most consistent championship teams - they go on with it and don't make a habit of letting the foot off the throat and inviting teams back in so regularly.

So, are we there yet? No, we're not. 

This also brings into the spotlight our mental focus and defensive fortitude.

On defence and the joker in the pack

On the whole the statistics would indicate our defence is top-notch this year - as 3rd best. That bodes well, so far. Of the last 15 NRL seasons, 14 of 15 of the premiership-winning clubs has been inside the top-3 in defence (2015 Cowboys were the exception at 5th). On the whole, our scrambling cover and second-line of defence has been good. However, there are a few question marks.

In the first ten rounds the Eels defence has only been tested by two top-8 attacks - Roosters (4th) and the Storm (1st). We won those, though not without a serious contest and we didn't put either side to the sword with ruthlessness. 

The remainder of the wins 7 from 9 wins have been against the bottom eight attacks: 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 15th, 16th (Warriors, Tigers, Raiders, Sharks, Broncos, Dogs, respectively).

To add weight to this, have been a few fade outs and vulnerabilities shown - especially on the edges and out wide, sometimes by a jumpy Sivo, Fergo or now Waqa jamming in and leaving too much space letting in the odd try.

But the issues out wide have also been caused by the Eels sluggishness to slide and cover when the defence is compressed around the ruck that exposes the edges. That is nothing new. It's been around for years. There as well as some spaces around Mahoney that have been exploited in various games as detailed in previous reviews. Those issues remain.

Just how serious or fatalic will these prove in the big games?

Manly, too have plenty of question marks. More than the Eels. Despite Manly's red-hot form of late - they have yet to beat a current top-8 team.

Four out of their five wins have been against bottom 5 defensive teams: they are yet to defeat a team with a current defensive rank better than 9th.

Their two wins over the Warriors (9th attack, 9th defence) - by only 1 and 6 point - could be counted as their best win in terms of quality of opposition. The Warriors were in the top eight (but are now 10th, after last week).

All their other wins were against 12th to 15th ranked defences: Broncos (15th attack, 15th defence) by 46 points; Tigers (10th attack, 13th defence) by 34 points, Titans (6th attack, 12th defence) by 36 points.

Countering this, their Panthers loss (2nd attack,1st defence) in round 8, by only 12 points (28-16), suggests that a Turbo-charged Manly do indeed present a challenge and could do some damage - but the jury is out on them. Even more than the Eels.

The joker in the pack is V'landy's - making the game all about attack.

PLV has encouraged lop-sided blowouts and reduced close scorelines - and feels despite the unevenness of the contest this is what excites fans (and perhaps more TV dosh). Scoring tries. Not the contest.

Asserting the need to reduce concussions, PLV continues his agressive erosion of defences and assault on tacklers.

However, naively, PLV puts the blame solely on tacklers. As Gus Gould notes, concussions are an issue affecting tacklers more than ball runners.

This is despite the game being cleaner than ever - no shoulder charges, rarity of punches, spear tackles, coat-hangers, trip-in-tackles, chicken wings, reducing crusher tackles, HIA protocols, return-from-concusion-protocols, and so on. 

Additionally, despite the NRL's abject denial - and a no-responsibilty modus operandi - PLV's increasing the speed of the game to record levels - has coincided with an increase in numbers of serious injuries. Despite their denials - it does lead to greater fatigue. So say the players - and PLV isn't the one running, tackling, passing and kicking the ball. 

Additionally, going "lower" in tackles - the solution offered by some in lieu of the higher ball and all tackle -  increases the risks of concussion and serious injury for the defender. Think Mahoney round 9. Being consistent shouldn't we charge ball-runners for striking the head of the tacklers? Or do accidents here not count? 

Putting all that aside - as Souths have shown - losing by 50 points to the Storm machine 50-0 - sometimes poor defence (mixed into attitude) can be one's downfall, even in these madcap times. 

Stat attack

Despite being 5th-6th for errors and handling errors, the Eels have been reducing their errors over the last few weeks (we were no.1 for handling errors back in round 6). Even in the Warriors game the Eels made less errors (Eels 8- Warriors 15). The improved disciplined appears to have come with a reduction in the quantity of offloads - albeit the quality of offloading has been evident over the last two weeks.

Our direct-running power game has been a standout feature this year, getting us on the front foot. The pack has laid the foundation and had a hand in the form of the spine. Without that we would not be lower down the ladder. Though the clash of packs should be an absorbing battle the Eels would expect to get on top. Manly will definately have other ideas and want to prove a point against the Eels pack.

10 of the last 11 premiers have been in the top 4 for average running metres. Notably, it's not a clear cut recipe for success - as what you do with good field position and opportunities is what counts and sometimes we have suffered on this point.

As Warren Ryan pointed out: ''The uneducated only see the bash and barge. They have no idea about the science behind it all.''

The Eels left hand attack is where they've done the most damage - second only to Souths.

Sivo and Papali'i have been on fire on the left edge. Sivo has scored 4 tries in 4 matches against the Silvertails. 47 tries from 56 games. 27 tries from 27 games.

And the left edge has also leaked more points than the right edge (refer Electric Analysis' excellent analysis).Yet, if Waqa continues to miss 6 tackles a game at the wrong time and Fergo is off that could change down the track.

Expect DCE and Turbo to test both edges, and various attempts looking to exploit the spaces around Mahoney. It's likely Turbo and Saab will try and link up again attacking Eels left edge with the recent success they've had.

Jason Saab will be looking to become the first Manly since 2006 to score a try in seven consecutive games, Brett Stewart did so from Rds. 13-19. He's also recorded the second fastest time this year (over 38m/s) just a fraction slower than The Fox.

Bottom Line

Manly are a more dangerous proposition than the Warriors last week and probably the Eels third greatest challenge after the Storm and Roosters. Manly fans' mantra could be 'In Tom We Trust'. The Eels are also Manly's biggest test since the Panthers.

The Eels should win if they play somewhere near their best and continue to play the direct power game and get on top in the middle - albeit they must limit the damage Tom Trbovejic creates as well as DCE whom ignite their attack. The Eels power game is more effective than Manly's so if the Eels can continue the roll on through the middle that will lay the platform for victory. Then it's up to Mahoney, Gutherson, Moses who are in career best form. It's also likely both teams will try to ambush each other early on and the success of the kicking game, chase and support, and line speed will be important.

The danger for the Eels is themselves as much as Manly. If they produce enough errors or flat points in the game as they have quite often this year or try to go around Manly without doing the hard work in the middle - Manly have enough confidence and form to exploit some of the Eels defensive weaknesses and we could see a boilover.

Both teams have been impressive and the whole and appear finals bound, at this stage. Manly though have yet to defeat any current top-8 attacking or defensive team. Unlike the Eels who have top-four scalps - but also have some question marks around their credentials. This game will provide some insights, but not conclusive answers, as to who is the bigger pretender or contender. Both teams have plenty to prove.