Eels Blogs

Epic heroes come and they go. What truly makes the hero is whether their fame goes to their head and they become a self-obsessed jerk, or they accept their limitations and try to serve others. Many think Odysseus (Ulysses to the Romans) from Homer’s The Odyssey (750-650 BCE) is the first epic hero in literature (Greek mythology). Yet that honour goes to Gilgamesh, from Sumerian mythology centuries beforehand (somewhere 2150-1400 BCE). If you are wondering where this is going - this early in the season - Zac Lomax is Odysseus and a jerk, and Mitchell Moses is Gilgamesh and far more worthy of your adulation. As told in Homer’s The Iliad, Odysseus (the King of Ithica) is the hero of the Trojan War but really a trickster. Homer’s The Odyssey details Odysseus’ journey home to Ithica. In Book 9 Odysseus encounters Polymephus, a cyclops and son of the god Poseidon. Odysseus blinds Polymephus by sticking a burning stake in his eye and then brags about it. Polymephus therefore curses Odysseus and Poseidon places a decade’s worth of obstacles in Odysseus’ path home to Ithica. All of Odysseus’ sailors are killed because of Odysseus’ arrogance. Even when Odysseus finally lands in Ithica, he murders everyone surrounding his family, a rather disproportionate response. Lomax is Odysseus, an arrogant trickster who burns those around him. The Storm can have him. The Eels dodged a bullet. Elvis even sang a song about Lomax – ‘You're the Devil in Disguise’ (1968)

Gilgamesh was the King of Urek. He set off on a quest for immortality, like when Mitchell Moses left the kittens in 2017 bound for the Eels? Initially, Gilgamesh oppresses his people, maybe akin to Moses’ early tirades toward his comrades at the Eels? The gods sent the clay monster Enkidu to destroy Gilgamesh, but the two became friends, just as Moses won over the Eels faithful? In his quest for immortality, Gilgamesh survived many encounters (floods, serpents, assassins, Dylbag$), emerging a wise ruler who restored the sanctuaries destroyed by the flood. The Eels are forty years into their sanctuary (grand final victories) remaining flooded by losses. If anyone can restore the sanctuary, it is Mitchell Moses, who simply makes the Eels a competitive outfit (see stats below for non-mythological proof). In an awfully prescient turn of events, what made Gilgamesh become a good ruler? He meets Siduri, goddess of beer and wine – I am not making this up – and she instructed him in mindfulness and keeping good company. Eels fans may have need for Siduri’s guidance in 2026, but in Moses we trust?

Welcome to Round 1.

Teams

Thursday 5 March, AAMI Stadium, 8:00pm (AEDT). Melbourne, Lands of the Wurundjeri Woi-wurrung and Bunurong/Boon Wurrung peoples of the Eastern Kulin Nation. Referee: TBA.

Teams not-yet-announced at time of posting the preview. We encourage you to speculate about your likely Round 1 team. What follows is food-for-thought. 

EELS: 1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Sean Russell or Brian Kelly 4. Will Penisini 5. Sean Russell or Brian Kelly 6. Jonah Pezet 7. Mitchell Moses 8. J'maine Hopgood or Jack de Belin 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Kitione Kautoga 12. Jack Williams or Kelma Tuilagi 13. Jack de Belin or J’maine Hopgood. Bench: 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Dylan Walker 16. Sam Tuivaiti 17. Matt Doorey, Jack Williams, Charlie Guymer or Kelma Tuilagi 18. Joash Papali'I 19. Jordon Samrani, Kelma Tuilagi or Matt Doorey.

Head coach: Jason Heracles (Hercules) Ryles.

CHEATS:  1. Sua Fa'alogo 2. Nick Meaney 3. Marion Seve 4. Jack Howarth 5. Will Warbrick 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Josh King 9. Harry Grant 10. Stefano Utoikamanu 11. Ativalu Lisati 12. Joe Chan 13. Tui Kamikamica. Bench: 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Alec MacDonald 16. Jack Hetherington 17 David Moale 18. No idea 19. No idea.

Head coach: Bellyache.

Notes: For the Eels, Josh Addo-Carr is out until at least round 4 (broken thumb). Iongi is under a fake cloud of controversy. If Latrell Mitchell can get a one game suspension and fine for visibly snorting cocaine off a table (allegedly), Iongi is less than that outcome. JAC’s injury creates uncertainty about left wing and left centre, but Russell and Kelly are likely to occupy those positions in some order? Samrani is the outside-back smokey, based on excellent trial performances? Right edge backrower will probably come down to Tuilagi or Williams? Where Williams ends up playing will shape backrow, front row and the bench? It looks like the bench will have Da Silva, Walker and Tuivati, so that leaves #17 to be one of four players (Doorey, Williams, Guymer, Tuilagi). My inclination, based on trial form, is that Williams will steal #12 and Doorey #17. What do you think? Also, the new bench positions of 18-19: will Papali’l take one and the other might be an indicator of what kind of emergency cover Ryles wants?

For the Storm, they are missing several backrow (normal) certainties: Eli Katoa is ruled out for the 2026 season, Shawn Blore is injured for R1 and Trent Loiero is suspended until R3. In the backs, Xavier Coates is out for months, and Grant Anderson already made the baffling decision in 2025 to shift to the Broncos, where they have Origin and Test players Shibisaki and Staggs in the centres. Seve is last centre standing. Zac Lomax is scheduled to turn out in the centres or on the wing for the Storm once the NRL is able to quietly ignore its own rules, ethics and warnings and screw over the Eels.

Observations from The Trials

The Eels won the Witzer Pre-Season Challenge. As they say, trials mean nothing. Unless you are Odysseus, in which case trials permit you to spend a decade screwing people over, also known as The Zac Lomax Strategy. Nevertheless, as Gilgamesh discovered, if you succeed at some trials, it can be transformative. Especially if you win both trial games and win the competition, as did the Eels. In which case you must decide if trials mean everything or trials only mean the team has not (yet) been a busted bike? In winning both trials games, the Eels finished with an attacking record that was 2^nd best (68), a defensive record that was also 2^nd best (28), a for-and-against differential that was 3^rd best (+40), while the Eels also earned maximum bonus points due to offensive output (1 bonus point each for 5+ line-breaks, 5+ tries scored and 10+ offloads).

Eels vs Sharks: 40-6 (extended highlights HERE)

Eels vs Roosters: 28-22 (extended highlights HERE)

The Storm shared cellar dweller honours (no wins from their two trial games) with Panthers, Knights, Warriors and Roosters. The Storm trial form was dismal, a differential of -56 after conceding a second-worst-in-the-league 74 points (Panthers conceded 92).

Storm vs Raiders: 6-32 (extended highlights HERE)

Storm vs Titans: 12-42 (extended highlights HERE)

Previous winners of the pre-season challenge were the Broncos in 2025 and 2024, and Manly in 2023. The Eels finished each of those Pre-Season Challenges with 1 win from 2 trials. Manly in 2023 and Broncos in 2024 both missed the finals, but in 2025 the Broncos won both pre-season and the grand final. So that gives the Eels hope? Except the Storm lost both trials in 2025 and made the grand final.

One more stat and a note. The stat is an historical one. The Eels play the Storm in R1 and the Broncos in R2. The last time the Eels played both across the first two rounds was 2021. The Eels beat the Broncos 24-16 in R1 and beat the Storm 16-12 in R2. That year the Eels went on to finish 5^th, before beating Knights 28-20 in W1 if finals only to lose (controversially) to Panthers in W2 of the finals (6-8).

A note on stats is that game previews will draw from both nrl.com and foxsports.com.au. Typically, there are minor differences, such as in error count and tackle count. Yet only foxsports breaks stats up into first and second half (required for accurately calculate line speed metrics, and handy for assessing trajectory of play). Previews will do their best to cite sources.

Moses or Bust

In 2025 the Eels played 24 games (each team had 3 byes in the 27 round competition). Mitchell Moses missed 11 games (10 due to injury, 1 due to SOO1 selection). Table 1 tells a stark story wherein the Eels are competitive with Moses but flounder without Moses.

 Table 1: Moses or Bust (2025)

In the 11 games that Moses missed in 2025, the Eels’ Win/Loss record was 3/8, with a cumulative for/against of 191/338, for a differential of -147, and an average (losing) score of 17 vs 31.

In the 13 games that Moses played in 2025, the Eels’ Win/Loss record was 7/6, with a cumulative for/against of 311/240, for a differential of +79, and an average (winning) score of 24 vs 18.

The difference is most stark if we look at the front-end and back-end of the Eels’ 2025 season. The Eels started 1-5 W-L without Moses, running a deficit of 13 vs 34 points. The Eels ended 5-2 W-L with Moses, running a surplus of 27 vs 16 points. In that back-end of the season, the Eels also knocked off finalists Chooks and Warriors, plus eventual grand final winners Brisbane, and suffered a narrow loss to grand final (total frakkin) losers Melbourne.

Yet 2025 is not an anomaly. Table 2 shows that, since Moses arrived half-way through 2017, the Eels have a good track record when Moses plays. Stats compiled by selecting from data in Moses’ official player profile at Parramatta Eels Official and adding contextual detail from the NRL Ladder 2017-2025.

Table 2: Moses, 2017-2025

Amongst the stats of interest in Table 2, when the Eels have made the finals, Moses is playing most of the games and the Eels’ win percentage with Moses is 65%+ (except 2019). Moreover, in the Eels’ most successful year (2022 grand final appearance), Moses played all the games, and his stats across kick metres, receipts and total runs are all very high. The recipe for success for the Eels is to have Moses playing most games and be highly involved in those games.

The Bottom Line

The Eels will need to defeat not just the Storm on the day, but history as well. Everybody knows the Storm have built a reputation for being Round 1 Specialists: the Storm have won their past 23 first round matches, not losing since the 2001 season. The Eels have lost both of their past first round matches against the Storm (18-56 (2025), 12-16 (2023)). The Eels also have a less than stellar record against the Storm overall. Notwithstanding the Storm cheating the Eels out of the 2009 premiership, the two teams have played 48 times and the Storm have won 30. The Eels have just a 38% win record against the Storm. The Eels’ record at AAMI is worse (30% win record). The Eels’ record in the last five games versus the Storm is positively dismal: five straight losses, for a total of 198 points conceded and only 74 points scored, or an average losing score of 40 to 15.

On the bright side, the Eels have won five straight games (final three games of the 2025 season plus two trial games) while the Storm have lost their past three (grand final in 2025 and both trial games). Form means nothing under these circumstances of entering Round 1 unless history is totally against your team and you hold on to whatever bright side news is available?

But one stat chart might offer hope. Table 3 shows the defensive and attacking stats for all teams across the regular rounds of the 2025 season.

Table 3: 2025 season defensive and attacking stats

Over the entire season the Eels averaged 24 points conceded per game. Technically the Eels ranked 10^th for points conceded per game. However, toggle back and forth between Table 3 and Table 1.

The Eels started their campaign, without Moses, conceding 34 points a game: solidly the worst points conceded per game of any team all season. However, by the time Moses returned (for good) and the Eels finished the season strongly – with a 5-2 W-L record - the Eels’ defence also improved. The Eels’ points conceded per game over that seven game span fell to just 16 points conceded per game. If the Eels had of sustained that defensive performance throughout the season, they would have had the best defence in the league.

Note also the inverse case. The Eels were ranked equal 13^th for attacking output. However, the same front-end versus back-end reversal we saw in the defensive stats was repeated in the attacking stats.

The Eels’ starting campaign, without Moses, saw them score just 13 points per game: solidly worse even than the Knights (abysmal) overall season average (14 points scored per game). Yet over the final seven game streak, with Moses, the Eels’ points scored average jumped to 27 per game, which would have placed them equal 4^th for attacking output.

Now compare the attacking and defensive improvement the Eels showed through the final seven game span of the 2025 season, averaging a (winning) score of 27-16, to their (admittedly small sample) trial games performance. The Eels returned an average (winning) score of 34-14.

Now imagine that Moses plays all 24 games in 2026. Further imagine the not-unreasonable assumption that the Eels win 60% of those games because Moses plays in them. This would be roughly consistent with Moses-involved winning percentages as shown in Table 2. Plus, the fact that of the 13 games Moses did play for the Eels in 2025 the Eels won 54% of those and that win ratio improved to 71% in the Eels’ strong end-of-season seven-game stretch. A 60% win ratio equals 14 wins or 28 points + 6 (3x byes) = 34 points. Cutoff for finals over the last decade has varied (see Table 4), but since the introduction of the 6-again rule in mid-2020 the cutoff has mostly been 30 or 32 points.

Table 4: finals cutoff, 2016-2025

Beyond what the Eels will do against the Storm, the question all Eels fans will be asking is whether the improvement the Eels showed under Jason Ryles (as the 2025 season wore on) is a harbinger of good times to come or a false dawn? And, what if Moses stays on the field?

Go Eels. Stay strong my Eels brothers and sisters.

Gilgamesh Statue, University of Sydney