Shakespeare’s The Tempest is about betrayal and revenge. For the past thirty-eight years the Eels have betrayed their fans, dashing their hopes against the rocks of disappointment. Fans have sought revenge, adopting a wary cynicism of never bestowing favouritism on the Eels no matter the opponent, and engaging in a game of sack-the-coach every second week. To be or not to be an Eel is not even the question, for we are in a tempest, unable to see a clear path to the light, isolated like an Eels outside back most of any game. Prospero is the central protagonist of The Tempest, and isolated too. Just as the Eels were once a powerful force, Prospero was once a powerful Duke, but he met with misfortunate, his enemies betraying him, just as cruel fate, stupid suspensions, and some confusing recruitment has betrayed the Eels. Prospero and his daughter Miranda were abandoned on an island, which is exactly what it feels like to be an Eels supporter. But with the help of Miranda and the spirit Ariel, whom Prospero controls via magic, Prospero plots revenge. Brad Arthur is Ariel, a magical spirit, tasked with assisting Prospero/The Eels off the island and back to glory (Dukedom). You’re with me, right? Long story short here, but Ariel shipwrecks Prospero’s enemies, causes everyone to bicker amongst themselves and generally get really distracted, but eventually helps Prospero back to his Dukedom, whereupon Prospero grants Ariel his freedom, and forgives all his fans for having wanted him dead. Seriously, The Tempest was a history of the Eels, right? Welcome to Round 1.
Teams
Saturday 9 March, Commbank Stadium, 5:30pm (AEDT). Lands of the Burramattagal People. Referee: Grant Atkins.
EELS: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Morgan Harper 5. Sean Russell 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Joey Lussick 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. J'maine Hopgood 14. Brendan Hands 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Joe Ofahengaue 17. Kelma Tuilagi 18. Ofahiki Ogden 19. Daejarn Asi 20. Luca Moretti 21. Makahesi Makatoa 22. Blaize Talagi.
Head coach: Brad it’s-a-new-day Arthur.
DOGS: 1. Blake Taaffe 2. Blake Wilson 3. Jacob Kiraz 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Drew Hutchison 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Poasa Faamausili 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Jaeman Salmon 14. Kurt Mann 15. Samuel Hughes 16. Josh Curran 17. Kurtis Morrin 19. Bronson Xerri 20. Toby Sexton 21. Jake Turpin 22. Connor Tracey 23. Kitione Kautoga.
Head coach: Cameron it-was-so-easy-at-Penrith Ciraldo.
Notes: Sivo is suspended for head high contact. What is new? Brown and Moses are in the halves together, a rare sight since Round 15 of 2023. Lussick has edged Hands for dummy half and the Harper-in-the-backline experiment begins. The Dogs have half a new backline, with a former Eels #6 and Panther utility at lock, so who knows? The Dogs also have a 1, 6, 7 & 9 combination that has never played an NRL game together, so who knows?
Observations from Last Year
In The Tempest there is a monstrous creature known as Caliban, the son of a witch (read that closely), who wants to murder Prospero. Season 2023 was Caliban vis a vis the Eels. We cannot do an ‘observations from last week’, so let’s recap 2023 so that we have a clear eyed view of when and how it all fell apart.
Let’s start with the obvious. The Eels went backwards, from grand finalists in 2022 to missing the 8 in 2023, and the stats perfectly illustrate this fall from grace.
First, do not say the problem was scoring points. The Eels ranked 7th and out-scored the supposed points-masters the Bunnies. The Eels were ranked 1st for offloading, offloading in total more than any other team (328 times), even where teams played more games (finals teams). Obviously, this is a ‘style’ thing, as Broncos ranked 2nd and Panthers 4th, but three finals teams (Warriors, Sharks, Knights) ranked in the bottom six off-loaders. The Eels were 4th for post-contact metres and 7th for both supports and line-breaks, but 15th for decoy runs, 16th for tackle-breaks and last for dummy half runs. The Eels’ attack was based on off-loading to support runners in a position to break the line, not raw line-breaks or dummy-half runs.
For every ‘conceded’ category, the higher the number (the closer to 17) the better you are, whereas for gained/scored/made, the lower the number (closer to 1) the better you are. In Table 1, the Eels got much worse for metres conceded.
Table 1: 2023 vs 2022 stats
Yet the Eels’ poor metres conceded stat – only five teams were worse – was not so bad that their tries conceded blew out overall. But conceding metres probably saw the Eels consistently under pressure against the better teams, and this seems borne out when we see the tailspin the Eels ended up in late in the 2023 season.
Table 2: bad, meh, great, frak it.
The Eels made a poor start, recovered to be at least inconsistent, then improved to be excellent, but then the wheels fell off in Round 19 (when the Warriors thrashed us 46-10), which was the start of Stage 4 in Table 2.
The rot had started back in Round 15 against the Dogs. Brown had been a naughty boy during the bye week the previous round and was suspended for Rounds 15 through to 22. Brown and Moses would go on to play just 1.5 games together the rest of the season. They teamed up in the Round 23 victory over the Dragons, though that was a scratchy game from them where the Eels trailed at half time 10-16, and then Moses was injured in the Round 24 thrashing by the Broncos.
Clearly, the fate of the Eels is tied to keeping Moses and Brown on the park together? Evidence for this is also in the nature of the Stage 4 capitulation.
Table 3: the margins
On average, the 2023 Eels tended to either win by a close margin (1-9) or win big (20+). Most of their losses were by close margins (1-9). Except when it got to Stage 4. Up until Round 18, the Eels had a +132 differential and were 6th on the ladder. Then starting with Round 19 and the beginning of ‘Stage 4’, the Eels had four games in that stretch where they conceded 30+ points. In this period suspensions wreaked havoc, with Sivo and RCG out for weeks, but mostly, Brown and Moses were not on the park together.
The other stat of note from 2023 is that if the Eels fell behind at half-time, they went on to lose 84% of those games. By contrast, if the Eels were ahead at half time, they went on to win 89% of those games. Indeed, the Eels were either great front-runners or trailing train crashes.
Table 4: trailing = bad news
Indeed, not only might it be important for the Eels to reverse this trend, and not be hopeless also-rans as soon as they fall behind in a game at half-time, but the Eels cannot afford a slow start to the season per se.
Dogs of Misfiring Weapons
Eels fans are always too scared to predict sure things, but the Dogs were worse than the Eels in 2023. The Dogs were 3rd worse for metres conceded, allowing teams to march downfield and indeed anywhere on the field they wanted to march. They also had trouble scoring. Both teams regressed from 2022.
Or as Prospero’s daughter Miranda exclaimed in The Tempest, upon realizing the extent of her own suffering while reflecting on those that Ariel had shipwrecked on the island as part of Prospero’s revenge, “O, I have suffered. With those that I saw suffer” (Act 1 Scene 2). And the bookies have both the Eels and the Dogs suffering in 2024.
And of course, the Eels and Dogs have been long suffering opponents over the years. Well, at least until Reed Mahoney defected and then proceeded to play dreadfully each game against his former Eels, giving Eels fans something to smirk about.
Though when the Eels and Dogs suffer together at Commbank, it is typically the Eels emerging with winning smiles at the end.
Some good news for the Eels is that history is on their side, given a decade of success against Dogs outfits.
But you should also rewind a little and review (see above) Table 3: the margins. Recall in 2023 the Eels tended to either win by small margins or win by big margins. Their opponents were either kept in the game or blown off the park, with few comfortable but not spectacular victories. This seems to match the pattern in Dogs games historically.
The Bottom Line
The true bottom line here is that Eels fans are sick of excuses. We want greater consistency, such as ‘firmly established in the Top 4 from Round 1’, and to finish in a glorious ending of the thirty-eight year curse. Like Ariel upon being freed at the end of The Tempest, we long to proclaim “merrily, merrily, shall I live now. Under the blossom that hangs on the bough” (Act 5, Scene 1). Note also the brutal truth of the allegory: Ariel/Brad will only be free after delivering the ultimate prize.
Just as Prospero (the Eels) wielded magic to have Ariel (Brad Arthur) guide him back to glory, we are happy with a little magic or witchcraft if it will help. To wit:
Though more pragmatically, the Eels have a few issues in their side. They lack outside back depth and can ill-afford stupid suspensions (hi Sivo! Hi Dylan!) or unfortunate injuries in the outside backs, and the Eels’ halves pairing is both a blessing and a curse. Blessing because together and the Eels can rack up points, and both halves are very good defenders. Keep both Moses and Brown on the park and the Eels can go far. But if they spend most of the year (as they did in 2023) not playing together, that spells trouble.
So, we wish Dylan a happy celebration. He joins Neil Hunt as the 55th Eel to reach 100 games for the club. The 6% Club.
And for all my fellow Eels fans out there, and on behalf of Hell on Eels (HOE) and the preview-writing- team, we appreciate all the diversity and hilarity that is the Eels’ fan base. Or as Trinculo, the jester in The Tempest said, “misery acquaints a man with strange bedfellows” (Act 2, Scene 2).
Go Eels!
Replies
Great work Daz and HOE. Can't wait for this one.
Meelk, this written wizardry is all Daz. The rest of us just got out of the way, hotpotfree, hehe.
"Get out of my way" - The Sharp (1995)
Thx Meelk. I've called the lads around for the Sat arvo game. I really hope we win easily because it is going to be 38 in Melbourne on Saturday and the AC will struggle if I get hot under the collar while watching.
Not a fun day in Melbourne. Bloody afl on now too so my local has no chance of playing the game.
Crazy brilliant work, Daz! Hilariously witty and The Tempest analogy is genius. There's truth in it. Prospero's greatest enemy, in the Eels' tale, has largely been himself and some hyenas closest to him. This is one of my favourite reads on 1EE, to date.
HOE, I think Prospero realizes in The Tempest that he was his own greatest enemy too. The epilogue is all about why it's important to forgive his enemies, because being unforgiving toward them led them to strand him on an island just to shut him up!
Ahhh brilliant, Daz. Sensational write-up, and great to see you have lost absolutely nothing over the off-season.
Gracious and kind words, NOS. You're a champion bloke.
It helps that most pundits and the bookies have largely written us off.
On the plus side, as you said we have the talent and the second phase play to score points. A good pack. And a good spine, notwithstanding some hooker question marks.
What worries me though, even more than our outside back depth and problematic lack of speed which could be an Achilles heel against the more athletic teams, is our habitual tendency to crack and leak points. It's Sybil: reflective of an on-off switch, poor habits and attitude issues with a few too many on-and-off-field.
Here's hoping our longer, revamped off-season - which seems more team-bonding centred - helps.
But "old habits die hard", and I'm counting on Sybil to return at various stages. It just seems to be us. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I'm expecting it.
IMO, we won't match Penrith or Storm-like consistency, forged by years in the culture building furnace. And it would surprise me if we don't get blown off the park from time to time especially by fast, intense athletic teams like the Broncos, the full-strength Cowboys, Bunnies or even a Manly.
So, I reckon a good start to 2024 and getting ourselves in a good position to handle our inevitable mental-emotional and attitude drops is imperative.
We outmuscle the Dogs upfront and have a superior spine, so it's game we should win unless we self-implode at a Doggie ambush, which is not out of the question.
Being a frontrunning confidence-team, we need to ride the momentum of as many confidence-building waves as possible. 2022 is a case in point. Though we made the grand final and it was our best season in decades, we were not great defensively all year. We got smashed plenty of times. At R23, three weeks out from finals, we were at the crossroads. We just got smashed 0-26 in R21 by the Rabbits at CommBank and were perilously close to slipping out of the eight. But, after getting bashed up by Souths we had an attitude readjustment which saw rare Eye-of-the-Tiger mongrel to start winning back-to-back games.
We've demonstrated we're not resilient in medium to long-term stretches. We need to be in a good position for a short sprint in short bursts to have the slightest chance of doing something decent.
HOE, this is where I lack confidence in the Eels too. I just have not seen anything approaching defensive "steel". There were some parts of the Raiders and Titans trial games where it was first-17 playing and the Eels held out on their own goal line, which was pleasing, but once the reserves came on the Eels were constantly being caughtshort for numbers as the opposition moved the ball wide. What concerns me there is basic defensive drilling - or lack thereof - and how 'deep' it goes into the DNA of the club? If we get lucky and do not have the injuries and suspensions of 2023, maybe the problem won't be exposed? But if we are unlucky?
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