Match Preview: No Better Opportunity

One of the key ingredients to a Premiership run is a little bit of luck, and then the ability and conviction to take advantage of the opportunity that presents itself.

The Parramatta Eels will get no better opportunity to take down the Melbourne Storm than tonight. The Blue and Gold will take on a Storm side minus Cameron Smith, Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes, Dale Finucane, Jesse Bromwich and Suliasi Vunivalu.

Parramatta meanwhile are at full strength and have the luxury of selecting the same 17 in consecutive weeks for the first time since rounds one and two.

For the past month the Eels have struggled to cut loose in attack. Their ball movement seems stagnant, they lack bodies in motion, offloads have dried up and outside playmakers are getting squeezed to the touchline by their halves and blunting their impact.

Teams have worked out Parramatta's second man play and it hasn't been helped by the halves running sideways instead of straightening at the line to attract defenders.

Against the Dragons they failed to use the conditions as advantage with very few players sent back on the inside and the ruck seemingly neglected in favour of spreading the ball without really earning the platform to do so. The one time the Eels sent a player back against the grain in the first half, Waqa Blake sliced through and sent Clint Gutherson on his way to scoring untouched.

Melbourne, even without most of their spine and two of the bedrocks in their forward pack, will be tougher customers than the Dragons. The Storm have forged an identity on toughness, resolve and to steal from the New England Patriots "Doing their job".

A positive for the Eels though is they are matching the Storm in defence with the two sides the two best defensive units in the competition. Whilst it's been expected of Melbourne to be tough defensively, the Eels being in the top two is a rarity indeed.

Breaking the purple wall

The absence of Finucane and Bromwich is massive for the Storm. They provide key functions in the middle, particularly in defence. That being said, every player Craig Bellamy calls upon tends to step up and it would be naive to think the replacements won't fit into the Melbourne defensive structure.

Parramatta though, do have the capability of playing the style of football Melbourne doesn't like. Halves consultant Andrew Johns has said the way to beat Melbourne is through high quality offloads and shifting the ball wide early.

If Parramatta keep the ball in the middle it suits Melbourne's defensive style and allows them to dominate the ruck. As good as Junior Paulo and Reagan Campbell-Gillard are, the Eels cannot rely on their two middles to drag them across the line in this game.

On the edges the Eels have big, strong backrowers in Ryan Matterson and Shaun Lane who should be used to target Melbourne's inexperienced halves and provide some easy metres up the field.

Unlike the past two weeks, Parramatta will be playing in dry conditions which should hopefully allow for crisper ball movement and more opportunities to offload the ball.

A big advantage for Parramatta is the fact they have both halves fit and available while Melbourne have the new duo of Ryley Jacks and debutant Cooper Johns. Mitchell Moses and Dylan Brown both need to step up this week and provide more threat with the ball in hand to open up their outside men.

The Eels also have the defensive style that can put Melbourne under pressure provided their wingers and centres read the play correctly. Maika Sivo needs to be better than his showing last week with two mistakes from him leading to Dragons tries.

Parramatta's middles have been tough and uncompromising this season and there's no indication of that changing. Melbourne's starting props of Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Christian Welch alongside lock Tino Faasuamaleaui will not back down from the contest. That being said, their bench without Tino and NAS does mean it lacks some punch and x-factor with journeyman Albert Vete the most experienced with 51 games while the remaining bench players in Schonig, Eisenhuth and Hynes combine for just over 20 first grade appearances.

The Eels halves need to come prepared for an 80 minute performance because Melbourne are more than prepared to win it at the death.

4 point game

Melbourne sit second on the ladder on 24 points while the Eels are third with 22 points. A win here is effectively worth four points for either side with an Eels win drawing them level once again with the Storm. A loss here however, could spell the end of top two hopes and leave the Eels to battle it out with the Roosters for third and fourth position respectively.

The Storm hold a better differential by roughly 40 points, so it becomes even more imperative for the Eels to draw level and put pressure on Melbourne to continue winning. 

This weekend will also see Penrith face Cronulla and the Roosters take on Manly. Cronulla have been playing exceptional football lately and could be a nasty speed bump for the competition leaders. Manly meanwhile may be down on troops but so are the Roosters. That match too could be a nasty one for the defending Premiers.

Once again, the importance of this game cannot be understated. Win here and the Eels could all but secure a top three position and force their name back into premiership contention.

A loss, and they can kiss goodbye to any thoughts of the minor premiership as they battle it out to remain in the top four while also forfeiting any right to be considered a premiership threat.

It's going to be a tough one but last week's loss should provide enough of a kick up the backside for Parramatta to come out on top. I tip the Eels by 4.

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  • The bookies have us as clear and dominant $1.39 favourites and the odds have tightened all morning.

    Hughes is a huge out, where do their points come from, and can young Johns stand up....I think not.

    Parra will cover the 7.5 point line and I think will lead at half time and full time. 

    Storm are also down on goal kickers which won't help their cause on a windy night.

    Parra by a margin of 13+ ($2.50) is the shortest odds in the betting market, shorter than a Parra win (1-12) compared to a Storm win 1-12 ($4.20) 

    Played on a harder and drier track, this will suit us and I see a dominant win to the men in blue & gold....GO PARRA !!! 

    • Melbourne’s points will come from Ryan Papenhuyzen , he is their most dangerous ball runner. 

      This game is Mitch Moses’ chance to really squeeze the life out of the Storm. We need to kick earlier in the count a lot more than we do, the combination of Ryley Jacks, Cooper Johns, Brandon Smith & Papenhuyzen cannot he allowed to settle into a rhythm at all. 

      • Brett their spine has never played a first grade game together, when they have a lot of outs the Storm turn to a very simple game plan based on a good kick chase and defence. Parra needs to match the Storm in the effort areas like kick chase, covering on the inside, and at least come out even in the ruck if we do this we have more points in us than they do.

        • They haven’t played together, but you can bet they’ve done hundreds of repetitions in training. They’ll be as good as any inexperienced group could ever hope to be. 

  • This is a must win for the Eels. A loss for us will have a big impact on the teams belief going forward. Frankly I don't see it as something they'd recover from mentally if we go tits up tonight.

  • IMHO this is more than just a must win, this is a season defining game.

    With the newer finals structure it's never been more important to be Top 2. This game not only gives us the opportunity to get back on even competition points with the Storm, but every point we score is a double-whammy from a points differential perspective. A winning margin of 20 wipes out the 40 point differential between us and Melbourne.

    Combine this with the fact that inexperienced game managers can go on the tilt with these 6 Again calls and blowouts are more common than ever. We have the opportunity to tire out their inexperienced halves and give them a debut to forget.

    To achieve this we actually have to operate like a Top 2 team, something we haven't done for well over a month now.

    We have the footy gods giving us a prime opportunity. Home game, great weather, strongest side, opposition decimated by key injuries, chance to get back in the Top 2 race. If we can't make a statement today I fear we're just going to be making up the numbers come finals.

    For me, this game is make or break. This is the opportunity for the lads to show the rest what it means to be an Eel.

    • I don’t think it’s make or break, but this was always going to be the launching pad game for us, even if Melbourne were at full strength. 6 weeks to go, this is usually when Premiership teams really start to ramp up their intensity. 

  • Have faith boys. Parra will win this game by 14+.

    All the journos and  tyhe majority on this site will then make sure to point out that the Storm had so many players out....especially the 2 Camerons. So in effect, we will win the game but lose the narrative.

    • Good call

  • I'm not buying it. This young Melbourne team will be trying their butts of to impress while they've got the chance. They're definitely not nuffs with a coaching system with Bellamy developing talent. They're all fresh. We're tired as after 2 very wet games. 
    They'd be loving the low pressure of being underdogs.

    i can see a loss coming for sure... 

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