2024 is fast free-falling into an annus horribilis maximus, going from bad to worse now that we will be without Gutherson who joins Moses on the sidelines. That's probably a fair scoop of $2m worth of salary cap.
Hence, it’s best we kick off with some of the good stuff. Miraculously, after the round nine we sit 12th: two points outside the eight but also only four points off last-place on a knife's edge.
Below are stats current as of the end of round nine and from Foxsport Stat Lab, which will be the source of all stats here, unless noted otherwise.
The Good
Ample Opportunities
Top Offloaders. The Eels are the king pins (12.3 offloads per game average), followed by the Tigers ( 11.9), Roosters (11.1), Panthers (10.8), Storm (9.9).
Low tackles count. The Eels currently make the second-least amount of tackles of any club in the competition (292.4 per game). Manly make the least amount (283.6), along with the Storm (298.3), Broncos (298.9) as the only teams to average under 300 tackles per game.
High Possesion. The Eels are third-best in the possession stakes (51.5%) according to current nrl.com stats. The others in the top-six for possession are: Raiders (1st, 54.2), Cowboys (2nd, 52%), Manly (4th, 51.3%), Warriors (5th, 51.2%), Panthers (6th, 50.8%).
Plenty of Red Zone Opportunities. The Eels have the fourth most opportunities in the opposition 20m zone (32.5 per game). The other top teams in this metric are the Panthers (1st, 34.1), Manly (2nd, 33.1), Dogs (3rd, 33).
Penalties awarded. The Eels are second-best for penalties awarded (6.5 per game) second only to Manly (6.6 per game). The Storm are third best (5.9 per game). The Eels though are fourth-worst for conceding penalties (6 per game). The Panthers are the worst in conceding penalties (6.9).
Low Errors. Despite the narrative that the Eels as an error-riddled team with dumbness that contributes to its losses the Eels commit the third-least amount of errors (9.4 errors per game) in the competition. Manly are the worst (12.2 errors a game).
Perhaps, there is a more subjective argument the Eels make critical errors at the wrong time and in the wrong place. It’s a pity facts don’t care about our feelings.Manly concede the most errors (12.2) followed by the Broncos (11.9), Dragons (11.9), Cowboys (11.3), Panthers 11.3, Rabbits (10.9).
Overall, if we were good enough, it shows we should not as many excuses as we have had. Penrith, Broncos, the Storm and even the Raiders can win without their best players and halfback.
The Bad
We only have two more bye rounds left (R16 & R20). Thanks to this week’s round nine bye we went up the ladder from 14th to 12th stress-free. Hooray. The upcoming draw before the next bye looks ominous though. Gulp.
- R10: Broncos at Commbank
- R11: Storm at Suncorp
- R12: Rabbits at Accor
- R13: Sharks at Commbank
- R14: Dogs at Accor
- R15: Roosters at Commbank
If the NRL were fair dinkum about the game and boosting their TV-Pay numbers, they would hand the Eels (one of the most watched, followed and perennially tortured group of fans) at least half a dozen byes with options for more.
The Ugly
Ruts, Regression and Depression
The Eels’ defence is fast approaching the dark days of the 2012-13 Stuart-Kearney rock-bottom multi-spoon years, in the dysfunctional pre-reform era.
I'm not sure if that's sad or ironic considering the reforms were all about improving the club. Or both.
Over the last year, since mid-2023 (R18), we have been conceding almost 30 points a game on average (29.9ppg).
That is actually the second-worst for points conceded rates in our NRL history. Only 2013 is worse (30.9ppg).
Since then, the Eels have won 6 from 16 games (37.5%), with an overall average score of 19 - 29.9 per game.
We average an +8.3 point winning margin and a -22.4 point losing margin.
During that period, our wins have been generally grinding affairs, whilst many losses have been blowouts.
It's akin to a boxer, plodding along "in-the-grind" working hard for any of his split-decision wins, but he loses more often and gets knocked out and beaten up for all his efforts.
Collapsing Outside Commbank: 12.5%; one win in one year
Getty Commbank Stadium: The Eels are partners with Parramatta Council
We have one win outside Commbank in the last year, since late June 2023 (R17) and concede almost 36 points.
Outside Commbank, we have won 1 of the last 8 (12.5%) with an average score of 16.75 - 35.63 (-18.88 av. P/D).
Our only win outside Parramatta against Penrith (Bluebet, R26, 2023) was are only win outside Parramatta since R17, 2023.
We fare better at Commbank, where we have won 5 of the last 8 (62.5%) with an average score of 21.25 - 24.13 (-2.88 av. P/D).
Defence points conceded per game: Worst since 2012-2013
Our 2024 defence currently leaks 26.5 points per game (14th).
That’s the worst under the Arthur era.
It's the worst since the double-wooden spoon years of 2012-2013 (where we conceded 28.1ppg and 30.9 ppg, respectively).
Additionally, our linespeed (pre contact metres) is the second-worst in the competition.
We also concede the most line breaks (6.9 per game).
Unsurpringly, our attack is also bottom-half at 19.6 points per game (12th).
We are also ranked bottom three for line breaks made (15th, 3.7 per game). Only the Titans and Tigers are worse.
We can’t really excuse all of that on a lack of possession, too much tackles (fatigue), too many errors, a lack of discipline, too many penalties or a lack of opportunities.
There is a compelling argument to suggest a pseudo bi-polar team has always lurked there in our cultural DNA.
A tale of Mercurial extremes
Sybil is the extraordinary, spell-binding true story of a women with 16 separate personalities.
Chart showing winning and losing margins in Arthur era
In the Arthur era, we have had 49 blow-outs losses (18 point-margins or more) and 43 large wins (18 point margins or more).
Below is the conversion of the above bar chart into an line graph. EEG-like.
Is there a doctor in the house?
Chart comparing winning-sequences of the Arthur era to the Brian Smith era
Week-to-week wins have been hard to come by.
In the Arthur era, our best run was 6-straight wins seven years ago (2017).
In Brian Smith’s era, his teams were able to achieve winning runs up to 12-straight.
Additionally, following up on a win is a coin toss.
In the Arthur era, only 50% of wins end up with a win the following week.
In comparison, in Brian Smith’s decade, 60% of wins were followed up with a win the following week.
However, it's not just often a week-to-week issue. It's often a half-to-half issue.
A scene from the exorcist.
49th minute: Falling Off a Cliff
In Phil Rothfied’s article on Brad Arthur earlier this week he pointed out an interesting stat.
“Fox Sports Lab stats reveal Parramatta would be running 2nd in the competition behind the Broncos on a first-half premiership ladder this year. But they drop to 14th for second-half performances.”
The RLET (above chart) show that in 2024 the Eels experience a dramatic drop-off from around the 49th minute.
After that, we quickly collapse to 2018-like levels. Dear Sybil, hello darkness.
Russell Crowe in The Pope's Exorcist. He’s also a huge fan of legendary coach Wayne Bennett and wants him at Souths.
Seven-time premiership winner Wayne Bennett and his long-time trusted lieutenant Dr Phil Jauncey (to his right), Australia’s premier sports pyschologist who has been a constant by Bennett’s side (Broncos, Saints, Souths, Knights, Dolphins). He has also worked with legendary AFL four-time AFL premiership coach Leigh Matthews and Cricket Australia.
No, thank you. We've got this. So, back on our ranch.
The Power Game turns to Powder Puff Again
According to nrl.com we are now ranked bottom three for run metres per game (15th, 1,573.9m). The Titans and Dragons are the two worst.
That is the lowest ranking since 2013 when Stuart resigned and we won our second-straight wooden spoon.
Looking at the individual yardage position by position (metres/game via FoxStat), it confirms what the eye test clearly shows.
Our back give, especially our wingers, give just don't contribute enough, and we rely on a handful of individuals to carry the load.
It also shows other teams, practically every team, is ahead of us when it comes to wingers making yardage.
King Gutho, the walking wounded, is the Eels' leading yardage man (metres/game) but in the bottom 42% of fullbacks for average metres per game.
Here's a closer look at the current stats, accurate at the time of writing this.
Gutherson (CG) is our leading yardage man by quantity but in the bottom 42% percentile of fullbacks (124m, 17/29).
Brown (DB) is our best yardage player for his position (either half or five-eighth) in the top 9.6% percentile for five-eighth (82m, 3/31). Essentially, he is just two metres behind Munster, and a top 2 halfback for yardage.
Hopgood (JH) is our second-best for his position. He is in the top 24% for locks (97m, 8/33).
Our two premier front rowers are in the top-third for front rowers. Paulo (JP) is top 26% for props (100m, 17 / 66 ), Campbell-Gillard (RCG) is top 32% (95m, 21/ 66) despite getting more minutes than Paolo (44 mins v 53 mins on average).
Our other front-rowers are in the bottom 33%. Ofahengaue is in the bottom 33% (77m 44 / 66 bottom 33%) but only gets around 33 minutes on average, Greig (51m) MOretti (51m) are bottom 14% . This isn't surprising considering the likes of Moretti only get around 20-21 minutes on average.
Minutes might need some reshuffling considering over the next few years our top bookends are heading towards their mind 30s.
Our second-rowers vary widely from the top 24% to bottom 5%. Lane is top 25% (90m 16/64), Matterson top 45% (79m 29 / 64), Cartwright is bottom 38% (67m, 40/64) K. Tuilagi is bottom 5% (40m, 61/ 64).
Penisini is our best centre for yardage but is still around bottom 37% for centres (106m, 36/57).
Our other centres are in the bottom 18%: Simonsson (91m, 47/ 57, bottom 18%), Harper (90m, 48/57, bottom 16%), and Talagi (73m, 52/ 57 , bottom 9%).
All our four wingers are in the bottom 3-14%. All four sit in the bottom nine wingers in the competition. Simonsson (91m, 51/59), S Russell 90m (53/59), Harper (90m, 52/ 59), and Sivo (76m, 58/59) who hits almost rock bottom.
Lomax sits in the top 7-10% for wingers and centres yardage (162m). He is a top 4 centre (4 / 57) and top 6 winger ( 6 / 59). He would become our top yardage man if he were playing for us right now.
Father Time is coming: Tick Tock
The Space Cowboys all passed their medicals and eye tests despite the eye chart being a blurry-haze ( “I may blind, Frank, but my memory is good”)
Paolo, Sivo and Gillard will be 31 in a few months this year. Matterson, Gutherson, Cartwright, Lane, Moses will be 30 in a few months, this year.
In “theory”, despite being closer to the end of their careers than the middle, their wealth of experience and leadership, despite being with Moses, should count for something to lift our on-field performances and lift the team.
It’s a beautiful idea.
The Rugby League Eye Test have written an excellent article a few years ago, What age do rugby league players peak statistically? , that goes through each position by age.
From around the late 20s early 30s, front rowers (like many positions) sees a drop off in some of their explosive, power-dynamic metrics (less metres/run, less tackle busts, less line-breaks and the like).
Generally, this also means the minutes of the likes of RCG and Paolo need to be managed.
Josh Kerr makes a break looking Usain-bolt-like against our middles in the Eels most recent blowout loss 44-16 (R7, Tio Darwin, technically a home game).
For those who aren’t convinced that ageing affects player performances in the explosive-fast-twitch power-metrics, have a look at a younger Junior. Do you see any differences between the 2024 version?
Some more good news, with some sweet and sour
Parramatta’s 2023 Annual Report states we have over 95K group members including over 5,000 new members last year and have a financially strong position.
Sue Coleman (above), a locally-based, life-long Eels’ supporter, has been a PLC Director from 2019 and is a veteran Parramatta Council executive with a passion for improving the local Parramatta's community. She is soon to be PNRL Director (once again).
The report also outlines we also received over $2.3m in community donations in 2023.Thank you Sue Coleman. Sue is also a 17-year veteran executive at Parramatta Council with whom the Eels’ club now have a multi-year partnership with.
In that report, on the football side, Jim Sarantinos, CEO of PNRL Footy board (above), notes the footy side’s continual financial improvement since the 2016-17 reforms with a net profit of over $17.6m for 2023 including government grants.
Meanwhile, Football General Manager, Mark O’Neill (above) who came to the Eels to help them recover from the 2018 annus horribilis, states how excited he is about the talent coming through the Elite Pathways. He also points out how critical the off-season and early 2024 would be.
O’Niell also notes how hard-working Brad Arthur (above), the coaching team and players are.
“The entire football department is determined to return to finals football and challenge for a premiership,” O'Neil points out.
That part of the report has aged well.
What will it take?
The immediate sharply-regressing footballing future looks grim and uncertain.
Additionally, the real-life on-field results seem to indicate there exists a continued disconnect in the Elite Pathways between and the higher grades and junior sides. That is Mark O'Niell's baby. And for whatever reasons, Brad Arthur's voice and ideas seem to be faltering.
At the end of the round nine bye, the NRL team is 12th (from 17), the NSW Cup side is 12th (from 13) and Jersey Flegg side is 13th (from 14). In complete contrast, the junior levels are in the upper realms: the SG Ball side are 5th (from 16) and the Harold Mathews side are 3rd (from 17).
Overall, all the evidence points to “Houston, we have a problem” with our football top-to-toe. It suggests major changes are needed.
But perhaps we face more terminal problems than the Apollo 13 experienced in their failed mission to the moon. The difference being not only do we have alarming explosions on board and are likely to miss our finals' target, once again, but we are likely to experience some hard landings in the not too distant future. With the ill-fated Apollo 13 mission, NASA, Houston, acted decisively, urgently and tirelessly around the clock for a soft-landing "lifeboat". With us, Houston appears to be more passively crossing its footballing fingers and toes. Watching. Waiting. Hoping.
How long will the board wait before we see major changes? Missing the finals? Another wooden spoon? Hoping a Moses-led renaissance can get the ship back on course later this year or the next?
Yes, that could happen and we're likely to see some upswing and bounceback at some point, especially if or when we get to full-strength. It's in our off-on, up-down Sybil-DNA. But, it will be temporary. We'll be back to where we are now on a slippery slope and perhaps in even worse shape than now.
Replies
So we agree that we need some young nimble players and that our "pack age" (no pun) is not the immediate need.
Yes, now your thinking Hugo, where do we get them and how, we have room for 2 wingers, 1 centre, a utility that can play anywhere, a lateral moving edge forward that could potentially relieve in the centres and a Hooker to lead the forward pack. I see that as 5 players...... we can afford to lose Lane, Sivo, Lussick or Hands and Joe O. Net the costs with the 3 vacancies currently in our top 30 and you have a football team that can win us a comp "maybe". Our depth will be supplemented by Hands and Lussick staying on minimum and the juniors coming through, that will included Penisini R, Arthur M, AMS , Charlie Gymer and the Tahiti (prop can't spell). Josh Lunn is a developing half not far from Sanders (according to reports) and if we can pick up that utility I have included, someone like the Roosters 14, he will be your halves cover as well as Lunn. Good idea that anyone we recruit can run some performance times, we have to get pace into that backline.
If BA goes I would look at Bevan French filling one of those roles, that gives you a half, winger or fullback utility, not a hooker unfortunately. Chasing Tristan Sailor could also offer an opportunity.
PS I don't think they Rag Doll the players like they used to that weighed so heavily against French. French was badly handled and advised by having a posterior ligament removed and being brought back too quickly by BA, Tepai Moreoa ( finished now) had the same handling issue as a young player with a Chest Injury, he could have been anything if he was allowed to recover properly, both high quality development players badly handled in their development by BA.
Thanks Hugo and Mananh brow for the kind words. Also, great point about the Dolphins "old pack" and how the team have been getting results. There are a few differences between them and us.
For one, they have a few that are even older, lol.
If you replaced RCG or Paulo with Jesse, we'd regress even further. We'd be worse.
Jesse Bromwich around 35, is making less yardage and impact than Paolo/RCG and playing slightly less minutes than our younger bookends.
We critically rely a lot more on our older, senior fellas RCG/Paolo soon 31 for our "power game". Matto helps, too. Thank God for Hopgood and Dylan who are in our top percentiles for yardage for their positions.
Two, they get a lot more from their back five. Isaako and young Bostock are actually top ten for yardage. Our fellas are all bottom ten and in the bottom half for percentiles.
Also, they have so much more speed and potency. Not just in the backs. Look at younger guys like Josh Kerr and even Plath.
Also, JMK is a very clever dummy half and understated imo. He creates a lot for them our of dummy half (look what he did to us a few weeks ago). BA seems to like a workhorse rake who makes their tackles and provides good 80 min service to our playmakers rather than be another cook (maybe he thinks we'd have too many cooks).
Furthermore, culturally their older guys come from a winning Storm culture that won't tolerate the off-on culture we have.
One that BA (thus MON and both PNRL & PLC owners) seems to indirectly allow through his leniency on his players' senior inner circle. This off-on culture keep biting them on the arse, yet they don't seem to know how to fix it.
Meanwhile, slowly, the older guys we rely on critically will have their power-explosiveness diminish (something the Dolphins have but have countered). We're seeing symptoms of drops offs but not the full Monty yet.
I mean Kufasi is 31 (a tad older but similar to Paolo and RCG) so even though he's dropped off a tad from five years ago (as an Origin player) he's still got a few years and the odd big hit before retirement but you probably won't see him in Origin again unless QLD were desperate.
Perhaps we could argue they're managed the balance between experience and youth, and team dynamics, better.
Which means they're used more footy nous and planning than us well before, years before this season began.Before a boot stepped foot on the footy field.
You'd also think Bennett and his supports can get more out of the playing group. That is, he's just a better coach and mentor.
And it this means those in charge of the Dolphins up-top had more nous and clout to choose the right people as leaders (e.g. Bennett, scouts and recruiters) downstream.
They shouldn't be considering they're new kids on the block but the evidence points that way.
Sivo is the third worst yardage winger in the entire competition lol. That's hilarious that this situation has been allowed to continue for as long as it has. To sum everything up we have a coaching problem plain and simple.
Adam, I've just checked the freshly baked Fox stats that have been updated from yesterday. Sivo is now second-worst. Tyrone Munro is the only winger who makes less metres per game (he played around 20 minutes in R6 got injured, and hasn't played since).
Sivo is our best try-scoring winger though and has been a cult figure. It's just we can't make up for what he doesn't do - make yardage - elsewhere exacerbates the problem.
Put the try line on the other side of a brick wall and he will run though it. Kick returns, every person on this forum knows he's dogging it. This has been going on for ages and it hasn't been addressed. I saw on a podcast after one of our recent losses the stat they provided was that he made 8 runs for a total of 8 post contact metres. He's built like a brick shithouse and getting stopped by opponents 10kg lighter. Someone mentioned he is too upright when he is about to hit the defence. Someone needs to show him videos of Matt Lodge and his torso position (perfect). Whether it's his own lack of conviction or technique it's a coaching issue.
Compare his body position on a yardage hit-up to when there are a couple of defenders in front of him 5m out from the try line. He's defeintely dogging the hit ups.
This is only from games this year though 2 of those 3 games he played he seemed to he hobbling basically with some kind of calf injury. He's about 135 or something over the career - not elite but about mid field.
For me the problem lies with the fact you have simmonson there - whose supposed to be our 'grunt' winger posting abysmal numbers. Harper as well, he's not a strike player so he needs to contribute heavily in other areas. Everybody loves to get stuck into Sivo on this forum but there numbers actually prove to me what the real issue is
if you are an out and out strike player you aren't expected to have the run metres of the elite metre getters . I'm not quite sure what people don't understand about that. Out of interest what are Dom Young's average run metres this year HOE? I'd bet they aren't hugely greater than Sivo's usual metre average
Michael,
Here's a comparison between Young (better than I expected), JAC and Coates who'd you call "strike" wingers rather than grunts. To'o in The King of Yardage who is also a close to unstoppable tank near the line.
The thing is Young has the capacity to score tries for fun and make linebreaks which might boost his metres. Andat 24 he's in his peak years. His yardage is at the same levels as last year (according to current nrl.com stats).
Our yardage issues of 2024, dramatically dropping off from 2019-2023, is a "collective" issue imo with many factors including the fact we aren't getting much of anything from our backline (Penisini aside).
Also, when the whole ship is going backwards, on tilt and close to sinking, everyone tends to be on the back-foot and struggling.
The thing about Sivo is he can do things that our and many wingers can't, both near the tryline & in the air.
I suppose the fact he looks somewhat timid on many returns (knowing he will be gang-tackled by the momentum of rushing in kick chasers) and doesn't make much yardage despite his imposing frame versus his more tank-likeness near the line makes it seem like he is dogging it.
If you check his average metres on nrl.com stats there is drop-off in his yardage from when he was recruited and debuted for us in 2019.
Now, at almost 31yo, they're at about 66% of that level he was at 26yo in 2019 (nrl.com has him at 149m pg in 2019, and 100m pg this year).
The RLET 8-year study on age (the best I've found) found that there was a drop off in metres/run (and other things like linebreaks) from around 30. And even more of a drop-off at 32. So, Sivo's drop-off is in alignment with the norm. He'll still do some good things, but some progressive decline can be expected. And how heavy he is now might exacerbate it.
There are some wingers who could maintain some of their metrics in their 30s, like the Morris twins, but generally, you'd expect soma drop-off (e.g. fast-twitch type 2). Even the Morris twins had some drop-off in some metrics despite playing for the Roosters in some good years.
Ok so Dom Young who is a very good young winger is averaging 138 metres. That's not much more than a usual Sivo turn out (before this year) and actually less than peak Sivo of a few years ago. JAC and Coates way less.
These are the types of players to compare Sivo with really - strike players. Sivo actually has a better strike rate than all these guys.
I don't think he is 'dogging it' that's unfair. There is no winger - Sivo, Dom Young anyone - who runs it kamakaze style back into 3 man kick chases every time. The best meater eaters are actually those guys with good late feet, or guys built low to the ground.
Have you seen the Warriors play at all in the past 2 seasons? Both their wingers run the ball with the very style you suggest no one does. I know one of them is DWZ and I can't even think what the other guys name is. I don't know their height and weight or any other statistics about how they compare to Sivo. But when they return the ball it is with absolute conviction. You can see it in their effort.
Our team is running almost last in the competition, clearly there are aspects of the game we are not doing well. Blind freddy can see our outside backs making yardage is an issue, Sivo is making the least metres of anyone.
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