Eels Blogs

It has been 18 years since the Eels beat the Roosters outside Parramatta.

Should we talk about the boogeyman, or his assassin, Baba Yaga? It is hard to tell.

While the Roosters are hot favourites, both teams are depleted, missing their Origin stars. That arguably helps the Eels more, given Parramatta only had Mitchell Moses involved in the Origin arena, while the Roosters lose several key spine members in Walker, Teddy and Robson.

But the Roosters will also be determined to honour one-club champion Daniel Tupou, who celebrates his 300th NRL game in his 15th season on Old Boys' Day with the Tongan Prime Minister and Princess there to celebrate the win.

Team Lists

Roosters 3rd vs Eels 14th, 7.35pm Saturday, 11 July, Allianz Stadium
Weather: Coolish 15°C, should be fine
TAB Odds: Roosters $1.26, Eels $3.60 (odds have shortened from $4.20 on Tuesday)
Referees: Adam Gee (on-field), Ashley Klein (bunker)

Roosters
22. Cody Ramsey  2. Daniel Tupou 3. Billy Smith 4. Robert Toia 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase 6. Daly Cherry-Evans 7. Hugo Savala 8. Naufahu Whyte 9. Connor Watson 10. Spencer Leniu 11. Salesi Foketi 12. Siua Wong 13. Victor Radley
Bench: 14. Benaiah Ioelu 15. Taylor Losalu 16. Egan Butcher 17. Delasalle Vaa 18. Rex Bassingthwaighte 19. Tommy Talau 
Reserve: 20. Toby Rodwell 
Cut: 1. James Tedesco 21. Reece Foley 23. Reece Robson 24. Sam Walker 
Head Coach: Trent Robinson

Eels
1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Brian Kelly 3. Jordan Samrani 4. Araz Nanva 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Ronald Volkman 22. Jonah Pezet
8. Sam Tuivaiti 9. Tallyn Da Silva 10. Jack Williams 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Kitione Kautoga 13. Jack de Belin
Bench: 14. Dylan Walker 15. Toni Mataele 16. Teancum Brown 17. Harrison Edwards 18. Joash Papali’i 19. Charlie Guymer
Reserve:  21. Ryley Smith 
Cut: 7. Mitchell Moses 20. Saxon Pryke
Head Coach: Jason Ryles

Stat Attack: The History Problem

The numbers are ugly:

• Eels have lost 4 of their past 5 against the Roosters.
• Eels have not beaten Roosters at Moore Park/Allianz since 2008.
• Eels have lost 11 straight away games against Roosters.
• Mark Nawaqanitawase has scored 10 tries in his last 7 Allianz games.
• Josh Addo-Carr has scored 9 tries in his last 4 games against Roosters.
• Daniel Tupou celebrates his 300th NRL game.

But history only matters until someone changes it.

Both teams have won every game they have led at halftime: Eels 4/4, Roosters, 6/6

The Eels' defence has steadily improved as the year has gone on but this game risks derailing the stats.

Back to the Blueprint

Defence starts with your attack: what you do with the ball. Fight and effort are essential. But not enough.

Against Souths, the week before, the Eels made 18 errors and completed at only 50% in the second half. Jason Ryles' gave us another schooner of reality after that game noting we would not beat a "park footy team" playing that way.

Against Manly, the Eels went back to the basics. 

The V'landyball NRL ping-pong era demands it. Or die.

They completed better. Made fewer errors. Controlled territory. Kicked around 550 metres. Every Eels win this year has involved a strong kicking game, with kick metres ranging from roughly 550m to 900m.

When the Eels make more errors than the opposition, they lose. When they make fewer errors, they win.The same applies at the elite level. Penrith's rare losses have followed a similar pattern: inflated 16-17 error counts and poor completions.

It is no coincidence the Roosters' losses have also come when they have made more errors and completed less than their opponents.

The Roosters' biggest defeats this year have come against the Panthers and Warriors. Elite structures and highly connected teams are their kryptonite. They also lost big against the Dolphins who have more firepower than anyone though and are learning to play with grit and toughness.

The Eels' only chance of competing and possibly an upset is following the blueprint.

Less errors. Better completions. Good kicking game. Good ruck management. Direct football. 

The Eels cannot afford sideways football unless they have earned it through ruck momentum. We almost gave the game away Manly win by playing sideways shift footy in the first quarter in the first half before playing more direct.

Against Manly, the fight and scramble also mattered.

Individual try-saving moments inches from our goal-line from the likes of Isaiah Iongi, Josh Addo-Carr, Sean Russell were the difference between winning and losing.

The Eels also took their chances.

Manly had three Death Zones, three or more consecutive defensive sets, and scored once. The Eels had three Death Zones and scored three times.

Ultimately, those clutch moments were the difference.

But Beware the Puncher

The Roosters are dangerous because they do not need to play perfect football. They are a heavyweight power puncher who can knock you out even while making mistakes.

The Eels cannot beat the Roosters by trying to play like the Roosters. They do not need to win every collision. They do not need to dominate the middle. Muscle footy.

They just need to hold the fort.

They need to drag the game into a low-error, low-risk, suffocation contest where the Roosters are forced to play uncomfortable football.

Give the Roosters enough chances and another blowout fifty score is not off the cards.

But anyway, nobody is really giving the Eels a chance before they step onto the grass.

Can Parramatta follow the blueprint for close to eighty minutes against a giant power puncher? Or will the immortal Boogeyman have the last laugh?