The odds are stacked against us.
The Cowboys have won six of their last seven. We’ve lost six of ours.
Townsville has been a slaugherhouse for the Eels this century. Since 2002, we have won 3 from our last 15 there. Even the 2001 side could only scrape out a draw up there.
Historically, up there, we average around 14 points while conceding close to 30. In today’s faster, higher-scoring game, that trend feels even more ominous. Games are around 10 points higher on average than in 2019. Fifty points per game is now the average. The highest in history.
The Cowboys will also be riding an emotional wave with Jason Taumalolo becoming the Cowboys’ most capped player, surpassing club legend Johnathan Thurston, who’ll be there to mark the occasion. Taumalolo has wound back the clock to become a destroyer in the middle once again.
The Eels just can’t catch a break. Ryley Smith joins the casualty ward from hell, while key players like Mitchell Moses, Josh Addo-Carr and Dylan Walker all look to be carrying bumps and niggles.
We're on a wing and a prayer with few believing in us.
Teams
Cowboys 6th vs Eels 15th, Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Friday 8 May, 2026 8.00pm AEST
Referee: Liam Kennedy (on-field), Belinda Sharpe (touchie), Chris Butler (bunker)
Weather: Townsville. Sultry.
TAB: Cowboys $1.29, Eels $3.60
Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Braidon Burns 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Tomas Chester 5. Zac Laybutt 6. Jake Clifford 7. Tom Dearden 16. Thomas Mikaele 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Heilum Luki 12. Sam McIntyre 13. Reuben Cotter
Bench: 8. Coen Hess 14. Soni Luke 15. Griffin Neame 17. Matthew Lodge 20. Kai O’Donnell 22. Robert Derby
Cut: 18. Xavier Kerrisk 19. Mason Barber 21. Kaiden Lahrs
Head Coach: Todd Payton
Eels: 1. Joash Papali’i 2. Brian Kelly 3. Jordan Samrani 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Ronald Volkman 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Luca Moretti 9. Tallyn Da Silva 7. Charlie Guymer 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Jack Williams 13. Jack de Belin
Bench: 10. Junior Paulo 14. Dylan Walker 15. Saxon Pryke 16. Toni Mataele 18. Apa Twidle 19. Teancum Brown
Cut: 20. Jezaiah Funa-Luta 21. Araz Nanva 22. Lorenzo Talataina
Head Coach: Jason Ryles
Last hour changes: Guymer starts at prop. Junior to bench. Lorenzo cut. Mikaele starts at prop. Hess to bench.
Stat Attack
Jason Taumalolo will play his 295th NRL game for the Cowboys and will surpassing Johnathan Thurston’s club record of 294. It's his 17th season.
The Cowboys have won 5 of their last 7 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium.
The Eels have lost 80% of games up in Townsvile this century (12 of their last 15) but have won six of their last eight games against the Cowboys.
Scott Drinkwater has scored 5 tries in his last 5 games.
Josh Addo-Carr has scored 13 tries in his last 11 games against the Cowboys.
The Match-Up
The Cowboys are not a consistent systems side like the Panthers, Warriors, Storm or Dogs need to be. They can beat you even when they complete poorly or make errors because they have strike everywhere. Not unlike the Dolphins, they just need a 15-20 minute period of momentum to score 3-4 tries to wrap up the game and outscore you.
They are the yardage and linebreak kings. Top-two for both. A lethal mix against a side struggling defensively.
Their blueprint is obvious: roll us through the middle, aided by a scheming, niggling Reed Mahoney. Create ruck chaos and holes in our defensive line, then unleash hell through the likes of Drinkwater, Purdue, Luki, McIntyre and Chester. A mature Jake Clifford’s has become the perfect foil for the classy Tom Dearden.
For us, the equation is simpler.
In the games we've lost, we've made more errors, completed worse than the opposition and kicked under 550m.
In the games we've won, we've made less errors than the opposition, completed better than the opposition and kicked 600m or more.
The the last two games although we've fought hard, we didn't do the fundamentals well enough. The exact opposite of the Dogs' match.
We made too many errors and our kick-chase faded (480 to 240m, 363 to 191m kick metres from first half to second), meant the scores blew out in 15-20 minute windows where both Manly and the Warriors scored 3 tries in 13 minute periods.
We've lost the yardage battle every game, so our kick chase is vital.
The Warriors, a powerful systems-based team, have only kicked less than 550m once this season. That's telling. They kicked for over 700m last week. The only two games they've lost were when they completed worse and made more errors than the opposition.
At this point, spreading the ball wide and looking pretty isn't going to help us much unless we've created overlaps and extra space. Worse still, because we're losing the yardage game, it increases the chance of errors. A death sentence. The Roosters showed relentless direct running out of the ruck and fatiguing middle third is going to reap rewards.
We are undermanned, so we have to not just fight, but do the fundamentals better. Better kick-chase. Better line speed in defence. Minimise errors. Keeping it simple.
The Story of the Season
Blowout 50+. Fight, fight. Blowout almost 50+. Fight. Blowout 50+. Fight, fight, fight.
Commendably, the Eels have fought for three weeks in a row, but for little reward. There is a team there. But can they continue to fight or will they hop back on the rollercoaster in a year where blowouts are commonplace?
Final Word
The odds are stacked against us.
History says so. Form says so. Injuries say so. Townsville says so. Bookies and punters say so.
Few give the Eels a chance. But the team has no option but to believe and fight.
Replies
V'Landys Ball is just that... absolute balls.
This is the shittest age of league for as long as I can remember. Our Dogs game and Gough with the whistle away / bugger all 6 agains was that one game flashback to the days of old... and all fans loved it. Eels fans... neutral fans... even Dogs fans!!!
All we get now from this ego-maniaical overweight greasy slob is blowout scorelines, lopsided crap, massive fatigue & high injury rates and games decided on ref calls and timing of 6 agains. That's without trying to force a game on the US which is a waste of time and effort. Grabs some cash... great... but no one over there really gives a crap. Whatever this 'entertainment' product of his is... it's junk. If he was a neutral administrator he would have canned the 6 again... but he isn't and he wont. The ego is too strong.
Anyway... it's awesome and Sir Pete is the best and smartest... just ask him. Greaseball needs to just go back to horses... and maybe take his mate Abdo with him.
Yes VC Drinkwater. I VC Teddy but Drinkwater not a bad option if you have no Teddy.
Cowboys by plenty. Gee, not much in terms of Rugby League to get excited about this year. Forty years since last premiership is a looooong drought. Hopefully they'll win another
Bears had 77 years before being put out of their misery.
It is hard to see a win, but as others are saying we want the team to compete and have maximun effort.
We had plenty of day time games and all in Sydney for a while so it will be interesting to see what a night game and road trip does for the team. With so many changes to the team and new faces, does missing a training session from shorter turn around and travel time hurt us more than the benefits of team bonding that comes with a road trip.
Would love a win but seems I have to learn to accept hard fought losses as a positive against most teams this year. What round did we turn around our season last year, does anyone know. Maybe we can do similar and enjoy a few wins down the track. Playing saints in last round is only game I would confidently bet on us to win at the moment.
Don't like the fact Twidle who's leaving is on the bench. Give another development player a go ffs
Agree.
I suspect Twidle's in because he can cover multiple positions in the backline. He's Break Glass, and played just about everywhere.
We don't have to cut off our nose to spite our face.
That said, I'd love to see Lorenzo or Brown get a run.
Maybe leave Twidle out of any grade, and on 6 man bench and leave reserve grade for development who are future first graders. Id accept it if he isn't used, or only in emergency. Not given game time in front of Brown or Lorenzo for nothing
Cowboys will be way too fast and physical for us. Cows by 60
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