The odds are stacked against us.
The Cowboys have won six of their last seven. We’ve lost six of ours.
Townsville has been a slaugherhouse for the Eels this century. Since 2002, we have won 3 from our last 15 there. Even the 2001 side could only scrape out a draw up there.
Historically, up there, we average around 14 points while conceding close to 30. In today’s faster, higher-scoring game, that trend feels even more ominous. Games are around 10 points higher on average than in 2019. Fifty points per game is now the average. The highest in history.
The Cowboys will also be riding an emotional wave with Jason Taumalolo becoming the Cowboys’ most capped player, surpassing club legend Johnathan Thurston, who’ll be there to mark the occasion. Taumalolo has wound back the clock to become a destroyer in the middle once again.
The Eels just can’t catch a break. Ryley Smith joins the casualty ward from hell, while key players like Mitchell Moses, Josh Addo-Carr and Dylan Walker all look to be carrying bumps and niggles.
We're on a wing and a prayer with few believing in us.
Teams
Cowboys 6th vs Eels 15th, Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Friday 8 May, 2026 8.00pm AEST
Referee: Liam Kennedy (on-field), Belinda Sharpe (touchie), Chris Butler (bunker)
Weather: Townsville. Sultry.
TAB: Cowboys $1.29, Eels $3.60
Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Braidon Burns 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Tomas Chester 5. Zac Laybutt 6. Jake Clifford 7. Tom Dearden 16. Thomas Mikaele 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Heilum Luki 12. Sam McIntyre 13. Reuben Cotter
Bench: 8. Coen Hess 14. Soni Luke 15. Griffin Neame 17. Matthew Lodge 20. Kai O’Donnell 22. Robert Derby
Cut: 18. Xavier Kerrisk 19. Mason Barber 21. Kaiden Lahrs
Head Coach: Todd Payton
Eels: 1. Joash Papali’i 2. Brian Kelly 3. Jordan Samrani 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Ronald Volkman 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Luca Moretti 9. Tallyn Da Silva 7. Charlie Guymer 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Jack Williams 13. Jack de Belin
Bench: 10. Junior Paulo 14. Dylan Walker 15. Saxon Pryke 16. Toni Mataele 18. Apa Twidle 19. Teancum Brown
Cut: 20. Jezaiah Funa-Luta 21. Araz Nanva 22. Lorenzo Talataina
Head Coach: Jason Ryles
Last hour changes: Guymer starts at prop. Junior to bench. Lorenzo cut. Mikaele starts at prop. Hess to bench.
Stat Attack
Jason Taumalolo will play his 295th NRL game for the Cowboys and will surpassing Johnathan Thurston’s club record of 294. It's his 17th season.
The Cowboys have won 5 of their last 7 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium.
The Eels have lost 80% of games up in Townsvile this century (12 of their last 15) but have won six of their last eight games against the Cowboys.
Scott Drinkwater has scored 5 tries in his last 5 games.
Josh Addo-Carr has scored 13 tries in his last 11 games against the Cowboys.
The Match-Up
The Cowboys are not a consistent systems side like the Panthers, Warriors, Storm or Dogs need to be. They can beat you even when they complete poorly or make errors because they have strike everywhere. Not unlike the Dolphins, they just need a 15-20 minute period of momentum to score 3-4 tries to wrap up the game and outscore you.
They are the yardage and linebreak kings. Top-two for both. A lethal mix against a side struggling defensively.
Their blueprint is obvious: roll us through the middle, aided by a scheming, niggling Reed Mahoney. Create ruck chaos and holes in our defensive line, then unleash hell through the likes of Drinkwater, Purdue, Luki, McIntyre and Chester. A mature Jake Clifford’s has become the perfect foil for the classy Tom Dearden.
For us, the equation is simpler.
In the games we've lost, we've made more errors, completed worse than the opposition and kicked under 550m.
In the games we've won, we've made less errors than the opposition, completed better than the opposition and kicked 600m or more.
The the last two games although we've fought hard, we didn't do the fundamentals well enough. The exact opposite of the Dogs' match.
We made too many errors and our kick-chase faded (480 to 240m, 363 to 191m kick metres from first half to second), meant the scores blew out in 15-20 minute windows where both Manly and the Warriors scored 3 tries in 13 minute periods.
We've lost the yardage battle every game, so our kick chase is vital.
The Warriors, a powerful systems-based team, have only kicked less than 550m once this season. That's telling. They kicked for over 700m last week. The only two games they've lost were when they completed worse and made more errors than the opposition.
At this point, spreading the ball wide and looking pretty isn't going to help us much unless we've created overlaps and extra space. Worse still, because we're losing the yardage game, it increases the chance of errors. A death sentence. The Roosters showed relentless direct running out of the ruck and fatiguing middle third is going to reap rewards.
We are undermanned, so we have to not just fight, but do the fundamentals better. Better kick-chase. Better line speed in defence. Minimise errors. Keeping it simple.
The Story of the Season
Blowout 50+. Fight, fight. Blowout almost 50+. Fight. Blowout 50+. Fight, fight, fight.
Commendably, the Eels have fought for three weeks in a row, but for little reward. There is a team there. But can they continue to fight or will they hop back on the rollercoaster in a year where blowouts are commonplace?
Final Word
The odds are stacked against us.
History says so. Form says so. Injuries say so. Townsville says so. Bookies and punters say so.
Few give the Eels a chance. But the team has no option but to believe and fight.
Replies
NQ errors keeping us in as well as our scramble. We simply just need to be simple. Play through the middle, set up for Moses to pin them in their 10 and just complete. They will give us chances.
Gotta wonder why guys like samrani and Mataele have been second choice to lazy players like Penisini and morretti. They've been good
Geez considering the tempo of this game reckon we are doing ok. They've got a good side quite a few soo plus the magnificent Perdue! We might tire at end but so far so good for me.
just gotta wrap em up in tackle stop the offloads will help us out heaps
I think I would like to see the team with the ball at end of each half finish their set. So it ends only when ball is dead or opposition are tackled if they get the ball through an error or kick.
Players just really slow down the ruck in last 30 seconds knowing 6 agains won't affect the outcome.
Love the effort & look focussed with minimal errors, but a bit fatigued with the Cowboys speed.
Some 6-agains Eels way would help.
Great half from TDS.
Deserve a couple of sixes NOS. We did score a fwd pass tho hope ref not looking for any square ups...hate the square ups.
guys are trying so hard up against a good side reckon JR would be pleased so far
we might tire at end hope not 🤞🤞
The smartest thing I saw the whole half I saw with our kicking game is thank fark there not kicking it down Purdue's side.
Theres zero to see here if the Cows hold the ball there going to shred the living fark out of our soft as fark middle and our unathletic edges.This games only a game because of Cows errors.We've got nothing in possession it's the bash athon until we get field position we have no choice there because we are so unathletic across the park we struggle to go round these guys.
I mean winning the collision is a real thing our middles and edges are there for the taking anytime the Cows want to move the ball.Poor old Charlie Guymer the guys just out of place.JDB the games to quick Moretti getting roll bowled and arseholed.Seriously our middles a joke.
As soon as the Cows decide to hold the ball the scores going up in 6s.
R and R this is the way the games going it's a track meet go find some god damn urgent athletes please this shits getting embarrassing.
Yes smart idea ...isn't Perdue a fantastic player.
Chester's not bad either.
There so much more athletic than there counterparts it's embarrassing.
I know that the environment in NQ is hot but we it appears thta our strength conditioning needs more to be done. Looking at Guymer, JDB, Tuilagi and Williams, they are gasping for breath at the early marks. Our players are laying on the ground after a tackle, noticeably Tuilagi, who again caused us a try.
Scoreboard looks ok at the moment but there are so many missed and ineffective tackles that allowed Cowboys to have second or third phase plays. I don't know when our 'real' FG can improve our defence.
Lastly, our forwards and backs gained metres are so pathetic that at obe time we gained only 11 metres. They all rely on Moses kicking boots. And due to poor conditioning, you can see that our defensive line is broken allowing several line breaks from the Cows. Fingers crossed, we get a win in this game.
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