Eels Blogs

Eels have to win all 5 games to be sure of making the 8

Posted by My Bob on August 2, 2010 at 6:27pm

I have had a look at the draw and done some calculations and predictions (probably all wrong, but anyway). I think the cut off for the 8 will be 30 points. With our bad PD at -48 we can not be sure 30 points will secure us a spot. Five wins gives us 32 points and 7th spot as I see it.

This is how I see the top 10 teams completing the season:

Dragons: Loss; win; win; win; win; 38 First

Roosters: Win; win; win; win; win 38 second

Panthers: Loss; Loss;Win;Loss; Win 32 third

SeaEagles: Win(tonight); Win; Loss; Win; Loss; Win 32 fourth

Tigers: Win; Win; loss; loss; loss 32 Fifth

Titans: Loss; Win; Loss;Win;Win 32 Sixth

Eels: Win; Win; Win; Win; Win 32 Seventh

Broncos: Win; Loss; Win; Loss; Win 30 Eighth

Warriors: Loss; Win; Loss; Win; Loss 28 Ninth

Rabbithos :Loss; Loss; Loss; Loss; Loss 22 (who knows)

Clearly I have too much time on my hands and what are the odds of picking 51 games correct, ha! any bookmakers out there?

How do you 1 eyed Eels see the season finishing up?

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Replies

timbodavo August 2, 2010 at 7:09pm

I think 4 wins will get us there, 5 to be guaranteed. I think 3 we will miss out cause i terrible for and against
- My Bob > timbodavo August 2, 2010 at 7:25pm
  
  Actually Sinbad I agreed your choice of KK for 7 was as good as any. And yes picking 51 is a dream i can't even pick a clean round. However I do think the Roosters are hot and will do a typical coach Smith run to the finals then get sick of his over intensity and fail. I just can't see a Bennett coached team losing 5 in a row even though they have a bad record come finals
My Bob August 2, 2010 at 7:40pm

I should clarify that. The Dragons have lost 2 in a row and will probably lose to the Roosters then they come up against Manly at home so i think they wouldn't go 4 loses in a row at home to Manly , then they have Raiders, knights, Rabbithos and only Raiders in the ACT is a worry for them, so that's how I have them 4 wins from 5
- Beau > My Bob August 3, 2010 at 8:58am
  
  the dragons wont beat canberra, they havent beaten the raiders in about 10 years, and that both counts home and away! you can definitely chalk a win to canberra over the dragons
My Bob August 2, 2010 at 7:58pm

I know, go figure! ha ha try to pick 51 and I'm looking at 0 / 1. At this rate anything is possible
1Eyed Eel August 2, 2010 at 8:02pm

I still don't rate Manly at all, and tonight is showing why. There will be plenty more upsets before this comp is over. I would be surprised if 28 is not the cut-off this year but we won't make it with 28 because of for and against.
- My Bob > 1Eyed Eel August 2, 2010 at 8:08pm
  
  Yes I will be very nervous if we lose even 1 out of the last 5, that puts us on 30 normally a pass mark in previous years but this year is a crazy comp.
Tinkerbell August 2, 2010 at 8:22pm

We can do it!! :-)
- eels fan forever > Tinkerbell August 3, 2010 at 8:38am
  
  I will do a ladder prediction after this week.. that's if we win otherwise there's no point:P
  but IMO 30 is enough for 8th and 32 is enough for 6th
  we can fix our for and against we have 5 games we can smash a few teams and be right in the mix for a top four finish on 32 points, because the tigers don't have the best for and against either.
EeLmatiC August 3, 2010 at 9:51am

300000 - 1 !!!!

Very hard to predict these games, it has been such an entertaining season and has proven to show just how close the comp really is. Nothing is certain and it just depends who turns up to play on the day..

Like eels fan forever, I think after this weekend it might be a little clearer, but am hoping we can sneak in to 8th. I would be happy with that after the inconsistent perfomances this year..