We without a doubt have the worst centre pairing in the comp . You can look through every other side - neither of our centres would get a start in any of them . It's an area we have neglected in both recruitment and development. We have a rep level halfback and his strike on his side is battering ram Pensini who lets in 3+ try's a week and runs the 100m in about 22 seconds. He doesn't have the ability to compete for high balls , can't beat a guy with footwork , has errors in his game , can't draw and pass , can't catch and pass , defends on his heals , stops and comes in when the defence is sliding out , lacks attention to finer details .. he's just an out and out battering ram . His carries were pivotal in us beating the Dogs last week but they were needed because he invited the Dogs to score 3 try's.
Rusell isn't any better . Just no class about him at all . On his good days he competes hard and has a crack . He is a bog average player who has no clsss or finesse and worryingly still has more of both then Penisni .
Nanva showed more defensively in 2 games than either of the above 2 have in their first grade career. He has a bit of height and smarts about him and may be one to go with moving forward . We desperately need to recruit a strike centre who can compete athletically . It's an absolute must . If we want to keep Will for his tough carries going forward he needs a new position . He can't play back row because he doesn't have the motor or work ethic - he's gassed after ever carry . It's a dead set massive problem for us moving forward if the club fhinks he's a centre we can build around .
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That's my point exactly HOE.
The analysis is still valid - here is our points for (attack) and points against (defence) normalised against the average for each season - showing how far below or above the average team for that season we are. Our defence is the worst of the last decade even when normalised for the VLandys-ball.
We have never been worse than we are right now defensively compared to other teams in the league in the NRL era. Our attack is only slightly under average, but our defence is PUTRID compared to all the other teams even when you normalise the numbers.
Don't shoot the stats guy.
Captain,
Sure, three blowout games means our defence after R8, is the worst to date in the competition. No arguments there.
But the comparison with unlimited tackle era and the modern Restart Era is so off the reservation it ain't even a joke.
Like I said blowouts are becoming normalized in the modern era — more than any time in the game.
And no team, not even Penrith don't concede 4 tries in a 20-min zone defending 70-80%. Let's just get fair dinkum.
And our injuries are one factor. Look at Souths last year, or Storm this year. We've used 28 players for goodness sake. I don't know what you buggers expect. It's certainly not realistic.
Check the stats. Listen to the players and Gus.
No I didn't miss the point HOE - I literally normalised all of the numbers within a season.
Within each season there is an average points scored/conceded per game. That varies from year to year. The raw numbers (if the average points scored/conceded is 10 or 50 as it's becoming in VLandys era) are worthless, I agree.
But the percentage that a team deviates from the mean/average is VERY meaningful. This tells you how your team is performing in relation to all the other teams that year, and then tracks that comparison across multiple years. This is all apples-to-apples now. You can check the numbers 50 ways from Friday, I promise this is correct. It's just simplified standard deviation.
Basically in my numbers above it says (for example) that a 2 point loss in 2010 is equivalent to a 12 point loss in 2026. The percentage you are away from the average (percentage, not points) means the variability from season to season is cancelled out.
If we are 50% worse than the average on a year where teams are scoring 40 points a game, then we are averaging 20 points a game.
If we are 50% worse than the average on a year where teams are scoring 12 points a game, then we are averaging 6 points a game.
In both years we are still 50% worse, even though the scores are different.
My numbers are all based on normalised percentages. They are correct. We are objectively terrible defensively this year even when you normalise for the try-fest situation.
No, false. My point was in relation to the false comparison between the Unlimited Tackle Era versus Modern Restsart Era. It's bollocks. Completely different eras. Let's agree to disagree.
Oh, yes absolutely. On that I agree. Two different games entirely - sorry I misunderstood your take.
Sorry HOE my bad I completely misread your reply...that's on me!
Captain, no mate, no problems. I'm still wrapping my head around your stats. They intrigue me. They're quite brilliant.
I'm not surprised Stuart was the worst. One, because of the fast rebuild he was trying to implement. Two, he didn't hang around for long. So it skews it badly.
GIbson inherited 95% of his squad and his biggest influence was giving them belief as well as appointing Edge captain. An underrated decision.
I'm taking the longer view.
We are still in the rebuild phase, in my view, and need some quality recruits. Su'a is a step in the right direction. We're better behind the scenes than most here realize, and have taken steps since the cap debacle when no-one wanted to touch us. R&R is trickier and more challenging than ever.
As long as the club internally believes in itself and Ryles, is aligned through the hardships, then we're some hope. If the club feels they need to make a few changes in the front office with MON or whatever, I'll leave that up to them. They know what's going on far more than we do.
Part of the challenge is not to listen to the noise and keep moving forward. This won't be a 1-2 year project.
Unfortunately, injuries and circumstances have probable delayed it even more somewhat.
Even Shane Richardson admits that's the most important part of resetting or rebuilding.
To be honest it was poor of me to include Ryles - we don't have enough data on him. Also unfair to Sticky...although I don't care about being unfair to him because he's...him.
Ryles needs at least 3-4 years before his data makes any sense. For what it's worth I back Ryles 100% and still do believe he is a fantastic option for us as Head Coach. I buy into what he is selling, I just hope we give him the support and backup he needs to be successful because the NRL is a cruel, cruel mistress.
Again, sorry for shooting from the hip. No excuse, I just didn't read your reply properly!!
Captain, not a problem at all. Apologies too for any misunderstaning. My posts can get a bit difficult to read. We were two ships passing in the night, going bump bump.
You're right Adam, it is bullshit.
This year (so far) we are the 4th worst Eels outfit defensively since 1947 (this is with all normalised numbers, not based on raw scores - so it reflects the average performance of each team each year to put things in correct historical context.
So yes, we're not the worst in 80 years. We're the 4th worst...so far (and one decent loss away from moving into 2nd worst in 80 years). Also, 2024 was the 5th worst, so we're definitely hitting some unwanted milestones recently.
Bonus credit, here it is broken down by Coach. So Sticky is still our worst and Gibson is still our best (surprise surprise). Even with BAs fall from grace in the latter years he kepts us dead on average overall which is an achievement given the squads he had.
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