Long story short, our forward pack isn't as good as we think it is.
I'm sure everyone else has realised this but we definitely seem to have the most inconsistent forward pack in the competition. To an extent that is understandable due to inexperience but dominating a Bulldogs forward pack that was much more skilled one week and then easily succumbing to an average forward pack in the Storm, really baffles me and so I decided to breakdown the stats for this season and look at the context of the stats, to get a better idea and my conclusions are shared down at the bottom.
Just for your convenience, here's just a comparison of just the previous 2 games to give you an idea of how I've been looking at games.
Eels vs Bulldogs
Time in Possession: 45% and 32 sets (21 completed = 65.6%)
All Runs: 150
All Run Metres: 1460m
All Runs made by forwards: 762m (52% of all run metres)
Total possessions: 354
Total possessions by forwards: 183 possessions (51.6% of total)
Tim Mannah: 160m, 16 possessions
Isaac De Gois: 28m, 83 possessions
Junior Paulo: 90m, 13 possessions
Ken Edwards: 85m, 10 possessions
Manu Ma'u: 13m, 2 possessions
Joseph Paulo: 90m, 21 possessions
David Gower: 84m, 10 possessions
Lee Mossop: 84m, 10 possessions
Peni Terepo: 56m, 8 possessions
Pauli Pauli: 72m, 10 possessions
Tackles: 304
Tackles made by forwards: 233 (76%)
Missed tackles: 29
Missed tackles by forwards: 16
Eels vs Storm
Time in Possession: 42% and 33 sets (24 completed = 72.7% better than Dogs game)
All Runs: 119 (Drastically less highlighting errors earlier in sets, which in theory is not meant to be happening)
All Run Metres: 1142m
All Runs made by forwards: 554m (48% of all run metres)
Total possessions: 313
Total possessions by forwards: 158 (50.4% of total)
Tim Mannah: 109m, 12 possessions
Isaac De Gois: 3m, 73 possessions
Junior Paulo: 35m, 5 possessions
Ken Edwards: 56m, 11 possessions
Pauli Pauli: 94m, 14 possessions
Joseph Paulo: 60m, 14 possessions
David Gower: 71m, 13 possessions
Lee Mossop: 16m, 4 possessions
Peni Terepo: 100m, 11 possessions
Kelepi Tanginoa: 10m, 1 possession
Tackles: 288
Tackles made by forwards: 218 (75.6%)
Missed tackles: 28
Missed tackles by forwards: 13
2 Main Weaknesses of our forward pack:
1. Linespeed in defence - How is it that when we're making fewer tackles (or less people in the tackles), we're still conceding more metres? The answer lies in the fact that we're not rushing up quick enough in NUMBERS to shut down the opposition on a consistent basis. We are letting them break tackles or offload and this means the opposition can make more metres and score tries earlier in the set (as indicated by the fewer tackles this week). We need to start conceding less metres for the rest of the season because these valuable metres are causing us to be under more pressure and force us to make more tackles.
2. Fitness and workrate, which affects the impact of our forwards - The only forward in our team at the moment with a decent workrate on a consistent basis is Tim Mannah. With Nathan Peats and Manu Ma'u out, we lose so much in defence and what they contribute in attack. I did a separate analysis but the fitness of our forward pack wouldn't rank in the top 8 of the NRL judging on their workrate (per minutes and sets) and if we are to be genuine premiership contenders, we need to be sure that their fitness and condition peaks at the right time in August/September. Whether this means rotating forwards to reduce their contact but replacing that with long distance running and endurance training to get them in peak condition because there is certainly not enough impact being, made from their minutes on the field.
Additionally, what our forwards really need to look into is making more offloads on the 4th and 5th tackles. We've made 9 and 10 offloads in the last 2 games respectively and honestly that isn't applying enough pressure on the opposition's defence to tackle us in numbers (which allows for linebreak opportunities) especially if we aren't spreading the ball wide.
Replies
Re Offloads.
We have to stop them, teams are killing us every week with them and Im sure opposition teams when they do their video sessions on us see this as an area they can exploit.
Without a doubt. My analysis highlighted that as being an issue but the fact that we aren't rushing up in numbers early enough in the tackling process has allowed the opposition to get away with offloads. There has been a direct correlation in higher offloads with fewer tackles made and more metres conceded in our games which proves it.
Sorry David, I must have skimmed over you off-load comment.
We always seem to be standing with the opposition in defence in a constant fight trying to prevent (unsuccessfully) an offload. We are not effective in getting a player to ground and I note other teams when they are in the same situation always have a player zero in and lock up the ball as a first priority.The attacking player might make extra yards while the cavalry arrives but they don't get the offload which is a bigger killer of the two.
Sorry HKF I don't know what point you are making in regards to offloads?
David, you mentioned the reason before you stated that it baffels you.
Inexperience! maybe you or someone can find out the NRL games numbers for our forwards. I reckon that the total number of NRL games combined for Pauli Pauli, Edwards, Terepo, Jnr Paulo & Kelepi would struggle to be 100 games. Also I don't think Gower or Sefa have payed 50 NRL games, probably neither has Lussick. We are a very green forward pack and up & down performances will happen until the young fellows harden up over time in the NRL.
This is a good reason why Smith & Fui & Allgood need to be in the 17.
I stopped reading after I read 'anal'.
Nice stats, David. They certainly do highlight the way offloads killed us in the Storm game. Put simply, the Storm ended up running us off our feet.
Nevertheless, while you're right about Point #1, I doubt the 'additional' point follows from any stat you compiled or is even correct. Yes, our line speed has become an issue. By and large Peats was the driver of our line speed, as you say; but as commentators noted, his first contact was excellent (locking up the ball carrier). And taking both Peats and Ma'u out of the team means our two best one-on-one defenders were absent. The result was there to see against the Storm, with our line slow to get up and our first contact quite poor.
These issues did not surface against the Dogs because the Dogs lacked playmakers sniffing around the ruck to take advantage of our slow line speed and relatively weak first contact, but the Storm got Hampton, Smith, Slater and Roberts all involved in second phase play and changes in the play's direction.
But I am not sure why you say our forwards need to be off loading more in the 4th and 5th tackle. Rather, our playmakers need to be getting the ball to our backs in the 4th, 5th and 6th tackles. Should our forwards come across the ball later in the tackle count, ideally it will be as they're running support for a break and hopefully some back delivers them the ball in some space where they can tuck and charge! If you watch some of the serious forward packs, like Dogs, Bunnies or Roosters, what you see is their forwards often looking to offload on 2nd and 3rd tackles, and 4th if they get the pill. By contrast our forwards often receive the ball flat-footed in the early tackles.
I think, though, that maybe we don't truly need that much by way of fancy stats to tell us our forwards are not as good as we think. Our defense is about the worst in the NRL, so obviously something is wrong.
In regards to offloading, I guess what I was trying to get at is that when we aren't getting the ball to our backs on the 4th or 5th tackles, our forwards are running straight and hard ahead, without looking for an offload. If the ball is with a forward on the 4th or 5th tackle, that should never be the case, we should always be looking to either shift it to the side with a play or run with the intent of turning back and offloading. You'll find we actually have the fewest offloads on the 4th and 5th tackles this season because most of our offloads have been coming earlier in the sets.
A lot like Fui. Simply running directly at a set defensive line is pretty pointless. Most forwards that bend the line have good footwork as they hit the line, making first contact in a place/direction that is awkward for the defenders, often also with a body shape/position that is awkward too.
Running bolt upright in a straight line might look impressive, but it's easy to defend against.
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