Back in August I dissected many of the issues surrounding Parramatta's style of play that led to their lacklustre 2023 season. Now I'm here to offer some solutions and, at least, some reasoning as to why that occurred.
Let's get the obvious out of the way. Parramatta had to deal with 55 weeks worth of injuries, suspensions or Origin selections. 22 of those weeks were suspensions which are well within the control of our players, especially Dylan Brown.
To compete at the back end of the season, you need a bit of luck, and the Eels simply didn't have any. Although the lack of backline depth does fall at the feet of the football department. Losing Tom Opacic and not replacing him hurt more than most thought.
Before I go further, I also want to give some credit to a couple of players who can hold their heads high after this season.
Firstly, Mitchell Moses. Using the Rugby League Eye Test's Player Contribution Rating, Moses was the only Eel to place in the top 20 across the NRL for this metric, and the only player inside the top 20 whose team didn't make the finals.
He ranked 13th with a net value of 1.615. Essentially, taking into account for all his positive and negative plays, wins and losses and weighted for the amount of possession his side has, he represents 1.615 points per game for the Eels. The best player across the season in this metric was Shaun Johnson with 2.717.
Next is Wiremu Greig. We've known that in the past Wiremu has been good for a lazy defensive effort or dropped ball. In 2023, according to the ETPCR he ranked 12th for the least amount of negative plays across the competition with -0.380. What this means is that Wiremu is one of the safest players in the game in terms of missed tackles, errors and penalties conceded.
Greig also gets kudos for being very active whenever the Eels had the ball. According to The Eye Test's ball runner rate, averaging a run 15.72% of Parramatta's play the balls. That put him second in the competition behind only Tom Burgess. Ofahiki Ogden was third.
That is a quantitative stat, as it doesn't show you how many metres were gained or play the ball speed, but nevertheless it demonstrates how involved Greig was during his 25 minutes of average game time.
Now it's time to get into Parramatta's problems and how to fix them.
Attack
As the season wore on, Parramatta's attack got worse and worse until they were a mid-table team. That is not where they should be. For much of Brad Arthur's tenure, the Eels have had a lethal left edge. A lot of that has had to do with his two Fijian flyers - Semi Radradra and Maika Sivo.
The pair have scored 176 tries from 2014-2023. In just the Maika Sivo era (2019 onwards) the Eels have scored 45% of their tries down the left hand side. Only the Titans and Rabbitohs have averaged more tries down the left edge.
With that becomes an air of predictability. Now, that doesn't matter too much when Maika is left one on one with his opposite. You'd back the gigantic, hulking Fijian to run over most of his opponents, and he does that most of the time.
But what it also means is that when he isn't there, his replacement can't do the same thing. I refer to this articleby The Roar's Mike Meehall Wood who points out that the current attacking structures utilised by sides are an evolution on the old block play.
Teams tend to have two styles of attack. One is an actual set play. An outside-inside ball, or a sweeping backline play where the half goes to the fullback or hits the winger.
The other is a "structure". It's a shape an attacking side can throw at a defensive side with a number of different options. Think Brisbane going down the right with Reynolds hitting Walsh. The Brisbane fullback can burn his opposite, kick in behind, play short to his centre or loft it to the winger.
Parramatta though, seem to be stuck on their "play". When in good ball they like to go tackles 1-3 in the middle or towards the right edge and then have a big sweeping play with bodies in motion on tackle 4 to try and develop an overlap for Sivo to score in the corner. If that doesn't work it's over to the trusty boot of Mitchell Moses to do his thing.
Now, Moses being Moses is the best short side half in the game. So if the Eels generate enough play the ball speed or the opposition uses a forward to fill in on the short side then Moses will expose it.
The problem with all of that though, is it relies on Parramatta's middles winning one out collisions and as I established in August, they do far too much of that to be effective.
How to fix it? Well, the simplest fix is to run in pairs with the support runner expecting the ball.
The other option is what we saw in round 26 against the Panthers. Start with a bash and barge middle forward pack of RCG, Ofahengaue and Greig whose physicality can be used to set a platform before Hopgood and Paulo come on to play bigger minutes and can then use their ball playing skills to attack a team on the backfoot defensively.
In regards to their plays and structure, there is one key change I would make. Moses and Brown are the fastest halves pairing in the competition. Yet, often in good field position they slot into first receiver and distribute the ball.
Gutherson loops around out the back to deliver the final pass. Gutherson has the pass selection of a half. That's not the problem. His problem is that he doesn't have the speed to consistently threaten the defensive line like a Reece Walsh.
It would be like Walsh playing first receiver and distributing to Adam Reynolds.
Instead I would move Gutherson to first receiver and have Brown or Moses sweep around the back where their speed threatens the third or fourth defender, which is often what triggers a panicked decision from the outside defenders.
This does not mean Gutherson is moved from fullback. Just, that in good field position, he plays closer to the ruck, allowing Moses and Brown to use their speed on the edges.
One final change that needs to happen, is that the Eels need to shift the ball more when coming out of their own end. The good teams do this as it prevents the defensive line from compressing. You're not winning many collisions if you have one player running into four defenders.
Defence
I am a big believer that your defence starts with your attack. As I established in the previous blog, Parramatta doesn't really push their opponents deep through their hitups or metreage. It's Moses' boot which does the work.
But this means your opponent isn't gassed and can ram the ball down your throat or attack very efficiently.
I once again take you to The RLET. Parramatta gives up 52% more points than they should based on field position.
The Eels also, on average start their sets 29.3 metres from their own line. Which means they are giving up cheap metres to their opponents and being pinned deep in their own half. It's the 11th worst starting position in the competition.
As I've already mentioned, Moses digs his side out of a hole constantly. In fact Parramatta force their opponents the deepest in the NRL. On average Parramatta's opponents start their sets 35 metres out from their own line. That's better than Penrith.
But Parramatta can't maintain the rage. Between play the balls 5 and 6, Parramatta give up 11.36 metres on average. The worst in the competition. So they can force their opponents deep, but can't keep them there.
That has a knock-on effect. It stresses the defence, the forwards get cooked, they spend a lot of time working the ball out of their own end. Rinse and repeat.
The Eels are also mid-table for metres per run by opponent, allowing their opposition to make 8.94 metres per run to be 9th in the competition. They also don't get off the line particularly quickly, allowing their opponents to, on average, make 6.04 metres before contact.
In other words, Parramatta concedes more metres per run than they make. No wonder their defence has struggled.
How do you fix it? Well, the attack is one thing. Taking stress off their middles with quick shifts or having backs that can ruck the ball out solves that problem to an extent.
But it's also a question of Brad Arthur. He talks about winning collision but his side doesn't do it, and nor has he shown that he has a way to do it.
The other issue is Parramatta's edge defence which was embarrassing at times this year. Some of it is related to the amount of back line injuries. A rotating roster of players is not going to allow players to feel comfortable.
However, it doesn't feel like there is a set method for the side to follow. Wingers fly up and in while their teammates sit back and slide.
If you watch Penrith or Brisbane they are stingy. When defending upfield they come up and slide, inviting their opponents to go around them. On their goal line they are a lot more aggressive with the defensive system pressuring the ball players from the inside while their outside defenders cut down the options.
Offensive players have to beat them because their defence doesn't beat itself.
Summary
If Parramatta wants to be back in the hunt next year then it needs to be a lot better on both sides of the ball. It needs to throw more at defences, particularly in its own half to get them off balance and take the pressure off the middles. Its attack also has to hold onto the ball more.
In defence, it needs to be a lot more solid around the halfway line and limit linebreaks outside the red zone. It also needs to be a lot more physical and aggressive in limiting pre and post contact metres.
There also needs to be a bedded in defensive structure that all players are in tune with to prevent situations where teammates are on different pages in defence.
The Eels have to adopt a more modern style of attack and combine it with a much better structure in defence.
Replies
You need to send this to BA 🤣
Good read Super, I will try analyse it more when I have time but I would love to know if your telling them something they may or may not know....in some ways its pretty embarrasing if they don't. Is there anyway of finding out if these stats are analysed by the players in conjunction with the coaches and in what format.
The other thing is recognising the disease and then curing it. i.e. Is the awareness there but not the corrective, how much of this is mental? because we all have our guesses after 15 minutes of us being on or off.....lets understand this and the role fatique plays. It seems that BA has learnt something about his bench, that he was not previously prepared to trust?
One final thought on reflection, do you think that BA reads the game emotionally or reacts methodically, game management is something I am critical of.....good examples last year was leaving on Hodgson too long whereas he was obviously an accident waiting to happen.....bench usage is a key and what role do you think his assistants play in that respect?
From here we could talk about player selection also and its role in our play making.
I very respectfully disagree about defence starting with Attack. We have been a great attacking team for a few years and our defence is still average. Defence is all encompassing to great footy, it is no fluke that only one team has won a comp with below a top 4 defence, that being Wests in 05'.
Out of the last 10 years, each premiership winner has had a top 2 defence. Nothing about attack.
Brown is a focal point of our attack and so are our wingers. We are a power forward team, our wingers making metres to start sets helps that. Of late just haven't had that, that has hurt us.
Defence, defence, defence. That should be our focus in pre-season.
I'm not saying our defence improves by scoring more points. I'm saying by asking more questions in attack and fatiguing the opposition more you make it easier on your defence.
It's what Penrith do so well. They move you around, they get the ball up the field and they force the opposition forwards to work hard. They do it and do it and do it until their opponent cracks. Their defensive system is elite, but it is helped by the fact that their back five take a lot of pressure off their forwards by getting the ball up the field.
I think you misconstrue what Super is saying LB...... the reality is that you cannot be as good a defensive side if you haven't made the opposition fatigued by working them over in attack.
We maybe a good attacking side, but if you read those stats we are limited in our options and that comes through with the sarcasm of never having a plan B
The theory being alluded to is that you can be on the attack and the opposition knowing your limitations close it down. If that happens your defence will eventually fail.That's not to say that we do not need to improve every aspect of our defence, both structually and technically. It can be chicken and egg territory of what comes first, but good attack leads to better defence by making it easier to defend. Of course we also have the rhetorical aspect of attacking through your defence, a philosophy you will most great teams adopt. i.e you don't need tohave the ball to attack.
This is why we are such an inconsistent side i.e.we do not control our own destiny!
The old motto, defend and the attack will come. I understand the point of fatigue the opposition as defending and making it easier to defend, that is the case making our defence better. But if your defence is not good in the first place that ain't doin anything.
So overall what I'm saying is we need great defence regardless, though as you said if we attack well causing repeat sets and winning the middle then their attack is fatigued making it better for us, put two and two together is lethal.
But great defence leads to better attack, that's my thoughts always. The way we allow the opposition to get up and play the ball quick, doesn't matter how good our attack is. Case in point we had a top 2 attack in the comp at one stage and our defence was bottom 8, didn't improve the slightest. Now you could say attack can be better, true but I think our defence comes with a different philosophy, meaning BA steps aside and let's someone else do the defence like he did with Barrett for attack.
Though I do understand where SE is coming from and makes sense.
Truth.
Yep this ties into ball movement and making the whole dline to work wheather it's tackling or just doing up n backs.
Tie this into winning the collision when you do it at least culls opposition linespeed.
Instead I would move Gutherson to first receiver and have Brown or Moses sweep around the back where their speed threatens the third or fourth defender, which is often what triggers a panicked decision from the outside defenders.
THIS.
One final change that needs to happen, is that the Eels need to shift the ball more when coming out of their own end. The good teams do this as it prevents the defensive line from compressing. You're not winning many collisions if you have one player running into four defenders.
Play more footy take more shots in a set.100 THIS.
DEFENSE is a very simple fix for me and it's all about TRUST & Communication these 2 are so important it isn't funny.Gutho is obviously a talker but you need talking in the front line that's what I see missing in our defensive pattern the general lack of the latter and we get caught.
The problem areas when you know your in trouble if you see your opponent leaving bodies lying round the ruck.Lack of constant linespeed,what I mean by this is not just getting off the line but once you are keep moving foward don't get passive and hold the whole line moves forward both sides of the ruck.It then leaves kick coverage right up Guthos alley.I'd even drop the weak side winger into the middle of the field if Gutho is covering that kick.
But we must build our defense from the inside out.
Great read Suoer and I like your takes and I agree on most of it too.
So monotonous watching Parra forwards one out running into condensed defence and getting stopped in their tracks,this would continue for most of the game, the team has to be allowed and coached to more the ball as they did in round 26 against Penrith this year ,that's when tries will come , let's hope the couching style changes next year.
One of the big strengths of the Panthers is to hold onto the ball. Without knowing the answer I would think that they have the lowest error rate in the competition.
Part of the Eels game plan would be to eliminate turnovers and therefore they are reducing offloading at times during the game. Further they are conservative with line speed in order to avoid six again and penalties.
Getting the ball out of their own end they seem content to rely on Mitch.
Just on that last game against the Panthers. With the exception of MM that is probably the best team we put on the paddock all year. Joe O played his best game since joining the club. I would like to see BA start with RCG, Woody and Joe O next season and play Junior and Hopgood off the bench.
Very good article Super
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