Eels Blogs

In Moneyball, Oakland A's GM Billy Beane introduces the concept of using statistics to identify players who can "get on base" so they can make up for the loss of Giambi. 

He gets push back from his scouts who like to use the "eye test". In a confrontation with one of them he tells him "adapt or die".

In professional sport, if you're standing still, you're going backwards.

And this brings us to Parramatta's 2023 season which has seen them go from grand finalists in 2022, to also-rans.

For anyone who has been watching this side over the last few seasons, it's clear very little has changed in the philosophy or the way the side plays.

Attack

Parramatta's philosophy has been relatively simple. We've heard Brad Arthur talk about "chasing the collision" or "front-loading effort" a million times.

It has been an effective tactic since 2019. But the game is changing and Parramatta has not changed with it.

Let's go back to 2019. This is a season without the six-again rule, where the game was more centred around set plays, and in essence, predictability. 

All stats are from NRL.com unless stated otherwise.

Parramatta averaged the second most metres per game across the competition with 1,652.3. After a terrible 2018 where the lack of a metre-eating backline combined with a pop-gun forward pack meant they ranked 11th with 1,479.3 metres per game.

The tactic of using Blake Ferguson and Maika Sivo to start sets well and then utilise a battering ram forward pack of Junior Paulo, Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Nathan Brown to ram the ball down the field was effective.

With the six again rule introduced in 2020, this tactic was even more effective as the free-flowing nature of games meant once Parramatta got on top they were difficult to contain. They again average the second most metres in the competition with 1,804.1.

The six again change was one of the key factors in Parramatta's style of play becoming entrenched. They were not only good at winning the collision, they excelled at it. With their forward pack running at a fatigued opposition backed up by an elite kicking game they could easily dominate. Teams were too exhausted to gang tackle and couldn't compress their defence effectively.

In 2021 the Eels slipped to third with 1,752 metres per game. Still elite and only seven metres per game behind the Rabbitohs in second.

In 2022 with the six again recalibrated by 60% The Eels shifted back to second with 1,710.3 metres. 

While their metres per game have dropped since 2020, that is completely across the board with the six again rule change being reined in and teams adapting to the new physical demands.

In 2023 though, they have dropped to fourth for average metres per game with 1762.5. While that isn't terrible, it's their worst placing since 2018.

It's a credit to Parramatta's forwards that they have continued to truck the ball through the middle of the field again and again.

But herein lies the problem.

Moving the ball is only half the game. It's more about how you move the ball than anything else.

For example, the Tigers rank second in the competition for average expected points courtesy of Rugby League Eye Test, however are dead last for average points scored in regards to that metric. In other words, the Tigers possession and field position score a league-worst 20% points below what their stats suggest they should.

As BA likes to say, the Eels look to win the collision. Well, what does that mean? As Fox Sports Lab highlights, the Eels love a one pass hit up. That is, the dummy-half passing to a forward to slam into the defensive line.

We average 80 of those per game to be fourth in the competition.

That in and of itself is not a bad thing. Brisbane are fifth with 79 per game, Penrith also average 79 per game, while the Tigers rank 16th at 66.1.

It's a stat that, without context, seems to mean the Eels are with the best in the competition.

The issue we have though is, despite possessing ball playing forwards such as Paulo, Hopgood and Matterson, we average only 102 general play passes per game (this excludes dummy half passes) which places us sixth.

Again, not terrible and not a stat that, on its own, is an issue given Brisbane sit in 14th while the Tigers are in second. One of those sides is competing for the minor premiership and the other is imploding.

Parramatta also sits in 8th for line engagements per game with 35.4 (per Fox Sports). That is, a player taking the ball to the defensive line before passing. Again, for a side that is blessed with ball playing middles, not to mention Bryce Cartwright, this should be a concern.

Compounding this is perhaps the biggest worry, the Eels rank 13th for decoy runs with 37.8.

Essentially what we have is a side that takes a lot of one pass hit ups off the ruck with little deception. This becomes very easy for the opposition to defend, it creates little fatigue and very little indecision, not to mention how easy it is to get bodies into tackles and slow the ruck.

Making metres, in and of itself is not a severe issue for Parramatta, but they're not causing high levels of fatigue or indecision in their opposition.

Their point-scoring has also dropped off as a result of this.

They went from being ranked first or second for points scored to now ranking seventh.

The side looks toothless without Mitchell Moses save for the odd bit of luck or a terrible opposition. Again, a major concern given Penrith, Melbourne and Brisbane have won matches this season without key spine players.

Defence

Hello darkness, my old friend. I've come to talk with you again. Defence. A pretty big Achilles' Heel for a side wanting to win a premiership and one you most certainly need.

They have conceded more than 20 points in 8 consecutive games for the first time in their history. Considering how bad some of those early 1990s and early 2010s sides were, this side has been abysmal.

Parramatta concedes just as many points as they score.

Looking at Fox Sports, they average 1,472 run metres per game, but concede 1,415 metres.

So, the Eels can win the collision in attack but they definitely don't win it in defence.

Parramatta's recent stats are not pretty reading. Rugby League Eye Test has found that between rounds 18-22, Parramatta has conceded 81.3% more points than the statistics indicated they should have.

The only sides worse are the Dragons, Dogs and Tigers.

Back in April, RLET predicted this would be the end of Parramatta and, well, he wasn't wrong.

Parramatta, after the first 8 rounds, were conceding more metres than they made. If anything, that 7 week undefeated streak has tilted Parramatta's season stats to look better than they have been the majority of the season and now those weaknesses are coming home to roost.

But the side's problems don't stop there.

Parramatta needs to have more possession than their opponents and they aren't. They shoot themselves in the foot a lot and can't defend those errors. Their completion rate of 77% places them 13th.

Early in the season, Parramatta were spending 61% of their total play the balls inside their own half. The only saving grace here has been Moses' kicking game, which has also forced their opponents to spend 62.5% of their play the balls in their own half.

So the Eels can't really move the ball as effectively as they would like, but Moses was keeping them in a lot of games through his right boot.

Teams though, particularly the good ones, have worked out how to deal with this. 

With Parramatta making errors, their middle defence fatigues, so the opposition then works over our middles, further gassing them and causing the defensive line to compress. Or, they send ball runners on an unders line to exploit lazy middles who don't close the gate.

That then leads to our outside backs panicking and making bone headed decisions to try and solve problems on their own, leaving huge gaps in the defensive line.

This is borne out by the stats.

Against sides outside the top eight, Parramatta concedes 18 points on average this season.

Against sides in the top eight, they are conceding 29 points per game.

Summary

What is occurring is a cacophany of errors and lack of attention to detail combined with a strategy that is fast moving into the rear-view mirror.

Despite their relatively high amount of metres per game, Parramatta spends much of their time simply rucking the ball off their own line. 

Mitchell Moses being elite at hoofing the ball down field as papered over some of the cracks.

With a lower completion rate they are piling more pressure onto a defensive system that simply doesn't have the gas to cover up those errors.

A focus on one-out running combined with a lack of defensive pressure means Parramatta's middles are worked over and exposed, leading to the entire system crashing down.

In short, Parramatta is not going to dig itself out of this hole without changing the way it plays.

Part two will look at the system adjustments that need to occur if the Eels want to be back in the finals next year and at the top of the ladder when the whips are cracking.