Now 2 out of 4 needed to make the 8. We were woeful tonight, at one stage 22 completions from 33 sets. You wouldn't win a final against the Bong Bong Buccaneers with form like that.
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No it is not. It depends on how the Cowboys & Warriors go.
Most likely scenerio is we make the 8 with 32 points due to our weak percentages, so we need 3 wins. There is a small chance that even if we win all 4 we could still miss out, highly unlikely however.
Anyone still spruiking this 32 points rubbish is like a second-rate Swedish furniture manufacturer - No Fuckin' Ikea.
You obviously failed maths at school.
have a play on the NRL ladder predictor, you will see 32 is most likely needed.
I had my play around with stats with 8 rounds to go and I reckon I am still tracking okay with my prediction, made without studying any future match-ups.. Here is what I wrote then:
Reply by Bernie Dowling on July 10, 2014 at 11:22pmDelete
28 points will make the 8. My prediction is that 7 and 8 will be on 28 points and that three teams will be on that 28. In other words it will be decided by F&A. If you are mathematically inclined, I base my prediction on a rough bell curve of the 9 teams on 20 or 18 points. I estimate one team will win 6 games, 2 teams will win five, 3 teams 4, 2 teams 2 and 1 team 1. It's rough and ready but at least it is not illogical unlike the presumption that with so many teams on 20, 30 will be needed to make the 8. If the Eels win 5 they will make the 8. If they win 4 it will come down to F&A.
I'm always impressed with people who can make sense of statistical analysis. That's how fortunes are made. Unfortunately I rely too much on instinct (the stupid science). But, as you pointed out, there is a flaw in your analysis in that you have not considered the future match ups. Any analysis is biased by its inputs.
Bernie, I'm just dribbling on some nice Glenlivet. I hope you are right, but I reckon you're not.
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