Its looking increasingly likely that Christian Welch will be signing with us in 2020. What does everybody think of this signing
Personally, i think it could be a good solid signing or a poor signing. there are valid reasons to support both sides of the argument although if im going to come to a final conclusion i will say that this will turn out to be a good signing. i have listed the positives and negatives below
Positives
- Is on the verge of being picked in the queensland pack, although IMO this isnt a terrific achievement considering wallace is in the current pack.
- He has improved substantially in the last 2-3 seasons and IMO has the potentia to further improve
- He is a hardworker and a good defensive FRF who will help fix our poor middle defence
- He has the potential to be a forward leader. Comes from the mebourne system and whilst this can be a weakness as explained below, it can also potentially be a positive, as he will more then likely be disciplined and mature, having been coach and developed by Bellamy.
- Could possibly form a good combination with Junior Paulo as a more than solider defensive FRF who has a solid impact and a good work rate = hopefully his work rate in defence would allow junior to put more energy into his runs and have a similar impact to what he had at the begining of the season
- IMO his stats are pretty good this season and i will list them below
- With 12 appearances roughly averaging 40 mins per game he currently has
- 26 tackle breaks
- 408 post contact metres
- average of 9.7 hitups per game
- 15 offloads
- 254 tackles with a 89.8% tackle efficency
- 1369 running metres with an average of 114 per game
- Considering the fact that he plays in a highly disciplined and skilled Melbourne Pack the validity of these statistics might be slightly underwelming as compared to say ajunior Paulo or Martin tapau who play in weaker packs (i will do a comparison between welch and tapau in the comments to below to get a good gauge on the statistics)
Negatives
- Is coming out of the melbourne system, thus the potential to be a flop like many others.
- Most likely that we paid him overs. I think 500-600 would of been reasonable but i have a feeling the contract will be closer to 650-700
- TBH he isnt really the big game breaker forward we need such as RCG, and not a really big body and comes across as an alvaro like player just a lot better
- He is coming off a series of serious knee injuries
Feel free to comment anything relevant you think i may have missed as well as your own opinion on the signing.
Replies
We should definitely still go hard for Lodge. Welch can play lock and I’m sure Brown can play second row if Ma’u does go to England or Ma’u can play off the bench.
Pork and Beans be realistic how many players can we fit into the cap, i dare say if we sign welch or possibly RCG that will be the last of our signings for 2020 bar a few backups.
I dont rate lodge as others do hear. Dont think he is what we need and is also bringing a bad reputations with him
Well don’t re-sign Jennings and a bunch of our forwards (Mannah, Terepo and Alvaro) and elevate Stefano and Kaufusi is also in there. I’m sure Evans is going to the super league and Taka too and they’re on 350-400 each. I just think we’re in one of those perfect situations where our juniors can easily replace our older players on cheap.
we only have stefano who can fill one of those FRF spots in the top 30. it would be crinimal to not re sign jennings he has been playing well and is an important piece of our backline. Your right in sayig that we are able to replace has beens with our juniors who will definitely create room in our cap, but we have signed gutho on an upgraded contract as well as Moses, we have promising juniors who have already generated interest in the market e.g. brown, plus we have signed waqa. dont think there is enough room for two more gun props
Jennings is definitely an important piece but there have been reports we aren’t offering him enough. 350k is enough for him you always have to factor in how long he could possibly go on. He’s always injured and you’ve got to wonder at 32 if he is necessary. Look at how dreadful he was in 2018 he could easily fall back into that. Nobody can give me a clue on how Parry is. There are plenty of clubs that could have Paulo, Welch and Lodge and I think we’re selling ourselves short if we don’t try fitting them all in. BA and everyone seem so obsessed with depth which is fair but I think our depth is fine with the adjustments needed. I also don’t think the centre position is something you want to spend a lot of money on because wingers, and second rowers could slot in in desperation unlike every other position. Our backs are versatile enough to fill the void of possible injury.
Josh, we have Gower retiring and likely Tim as well in the forwards end of this year. I would suggest that Alvaro, Davey, McIlwrick will not be resigned, Have heard that Evans is a potential SL move, and I doubt Taka who is listed as a forward will be given an extension although he could depending on how Hoff goes and MJ as well, but several of the backs will also go. As for the forwards as keeps I think the following are likely to get new contracts. Manu Ma'u, Ray Stone. The following are perhapsers. With Terepo likely and MJ as well depending on how much the eels are prepared to pay. Bevan French, Josh Hoffman, Michael Jennings, Tepai Moeroa, Peni Terepo
If we get either Welch or RCG as I think we have enough forwards and for the front row to cover the positions as we also have Salesi FAINGA'A, Stefano UTOIKAMANU, as development forwards and likely to get NRL contracts. aside from the possibe signings that leave us the following forwards that will battle it out for the top spots.
BROWN, Nathan, KAUFUSI, Oregon, MA'U, Manu, MAHONEY, Reed, LANE, Shaun, NIUKORE, Marata,
PAULO, Junior, STONE, Ray. With the development two, and one from outside that gives us 11 certainties, plus perhapsers in Peni and Tepai. along with any others from the development arena. With the backs being more light on as there are only 12 in the squad, and I cannot see GL getting an extension and possible loss of a couple of the others not being resigned with only Parry and Dunster on the development list we sit at no more than 25 players.
There will be some from the Wenty side and there are 2 or 3 from the Flegg cup that could become development players as well, adding enough to fill the squad. I believe that we have some quality in the lower grades and keeping the right off contract players along with a couple of forwards will give us some strength. I wonder though if we need two outside props., which could mean we lose some younger props from our own development area as a consequence.
Josh I agree regarding Lodge. Have not really seen much of Welch but RCG is a VG prop and would really be the icing on the cake to take Evans position, interesting reading their page profiles on Zero Tackle Welch being 24 and 110kg & 195c, tall. 19/07/1994 (24 years old) RCG 115Kg & 193Cm tall 27/07/1993 (25 years old) there's not a lot of difference size wis and Welch is a year younger than RCG.
As I said, I have not really taken much notice with Welch so cannot comment although your stats show up ok. With RCG I know what he is capable of and a big aggresive type, but does have some slackness at times but what player doesn't.
I would like either one to sign as against Lodge although he is an ok player but was missing in his last game as were others in that squad.
agreed, interesting to see the similarities between body sizes and age, and thin kwelch if he wanted to could proberably pack on another kilo or two in size. Lodge isnt what parra need. We need a forward leader and a pack insirer and i think Welch or RCG can fit that bill
Like any player, if you pay too much or if you just don't need him it's a bad signing. In this case we only have two genuine top 17 middles (Brown and Paulo) contracted next year so it's not like we don't need him. We also have Alvaro (if he takes his option), Evans, Kaufusi and Terepo on the books but you don't want them all in the 17. So with Welch it just comes to how much we pay. Unders means he's a good signing, overs means it's bad. Like any other player. I'm sure he wouldn't come to Parra on unders, so here's hoping it doesn't take overs.
yes i agree PouPou but in terms of how he adds to the balance of the forward pack do you think he is the right fit for parramatta regardless of value
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