I just went back through the highlights the Cowboys games and noted:
1. Their record against the best teams is not good. They beat us (with Brown playing centre and JA playing 6) and Melbourne without Pap or Hughes. I don't count their wins against Raiders early in the season when Raiders couldn't win, or their win against a B grade Penrith side in the last Rnd. Otherwise, they got dusted pretty comfortably by the Chooks, Penrith, Sharks and Bunnies during the regular season.
2. Their middle defence seems to be a weakness close to the line. Toby Rudolf, Tom Burgess, Isaiah Yeo, JWH, Lodge and Verrils all scored straight up the guts against them.
3. They are a fit and gritty team that plays the full 80 minutes. Their win against Manly and Sharks in week 1 of finals shows they back themselves while ever there is time on the clock.
4. They like spreading the field using quick hands and support players to decentralise defences. They don't mind an offload either.
5. They are good in the air. Nanai, Tualangi and Felt are the main targets.
6. Their backs are quick. Tualangi, Holmes, Dearden, Drinkwater and the Hammer all have great pace. Robson out of dummy can scoot too and he creates havoc through the middle with Dearden and Drinkwater supporting or creating line breaks.
7. They can be stripped on the edges. A lot of the tries against them come from wingers going over in space (I guess you could say the same about most teams though).
None of the above is overly prophetic, but thought I'd share anyway.
I think we win if we get the hit and run tactic right and the boys turn up from the opening whistle. Our best performances have been better than theirs.
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North Queensland and Cronulla are two big stories this year, I tipped NQ to be wooden spooners, Cronulla i did tip top 4 (Being honest haha). Both teams are really well coached by young coaches, both are young teams who bought great leaders; NQ bought Townsend, Cronulla bought Finucane and McInnes.
Though the difference between the two is the halves. Hynes will be a terrific Halfback, but he is a bit young and inexperienced yet to carry a team. Townsend on the other hand is able to take the load, while Dearden develops and plays eyes up. That's what cost Cronulla is their inexperience in their spine. NQ have inexperienced spine too but Townsend adds calmness.
Both these teams will be forces next year with more experience, but no denying Payten and Fitzgibbon made them better than what they actually are. But i feel NQ have a much higher ceiling due to their young talent in the forwards.
I think we are better than NQ, they have the pressure and we have no f***s given. We will beat them, but i am cautious of NQ playing their GF on Friday.
All i will say is next year i see Us, Penrith, Sydney City, Souths, NQ and Cronulla all being powerhouses for the 4. No matter what happens on Friday, our win against Canberra woke a sleeping giant, we grew massively as a team in that 80 mins, we will go into 2023 fully confident due to getting past that one week, if we do lose we will see the week off being the difference and we will work to be better in that area, Barrett is also a bigger gain than most understand.
2023 is very exciting regardless of making the GF or winning the GF or losing on Friday.
We aren't going to lose. We got this.
The only thing that worries me is their home ground advantage and the humidity.
What's our record like against them in the regular season up there??
Not good.
I think we beat them 1 out of 3 in Darwin.... I like the way we are approaching it.