Eels Blogs

Coaches love telling anyone who will listen they don't look at the ladder. Unfortunately for the Parramatta Eels, the sums don't lie as a poor for-and-against threatens to derail their finals hopes.

The Eels enter their Friday night clash against Brisbane seventh on the ladder and on 26 points, two clear of the Dragons (eighth) and four clear of the Panthers, who are hovering in ninth after 20 rounds.

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Destiny, as they say, is now in their own hands but Parramatta can't leave anything up to chance as they carry a -18 plus/minus into they key rounds of the competition, the worst by some way of the other finals aspirants.

They are now the only side in the top 10 with a negative rating. Even the Raiders (10th on 18 points) are 21 in the black as they attempt to make a last-ditch charge towards the semi-finals.

The Storm have the best plus-minus by some margin with +126 and aside from the Eels, who have had a historic battle trying to get themselves out of the red, only 41 points separates the rest of the current finals candidates at the top of the table.

It's the first time since 2010 that only one team has a three-figure plus-minus after 20 rounds of the competition, with the Dragons in 2010 (+188) the other standout in the recent past. St George-Illawarra would go on to win the grand final, while the Storm are favourites in 2017.

All of that leaves the Eels on their lonesome and they must now earn their finals stripes with absolute clarity rather than rely on their attack (334) and defensive (352) numbers.

It's not just a recent concern for the Eels. Taking out the 2016 season where they were docked points and their for-and-against for the opening nine rounds was deducted, Parramatta have been in the red for every season since 2008 after 20 rounds of play.

The difference this time around is they find themselves in the top eight, not towards the bottom of the table or trying to force the issue over the concluding rounds. But some big scores in coming weeks would be a massive benefit, especially if the Panthers or Raiders can string together some victories.

Entering round 21, the Titans, Warriors and Bulldogs are the only other teams with slim hopes of scraping into the eight but would need to make be virtually flawless on the run home, while a plus/minus of -50, -50 and -89 won't do them any favours.

Fairfax Media stacked up the plus/minus tallies for every team for the past decade through 19 rounds and it shows the balance of points is not always an obstacle to a lofty position on the ladder.

Brisbane's for-and-against after 19 rounds was their worst since 2013 but they were comfortable in fourth. The Sharks (fifth at that point) had scored 109 less points at the same stage of the 2016 season but their defence was almost identical.

Manly's attack had clicked, with the Sea Eagles scoring the most points after 19 rounds since 2011, while the Dragons were among the big improvers, scoring 126 more points and having conceded 71 less points compared to 2016.