Reversing Four Years of Regression

 

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While all our systems have shown promise, the most pleasing aspect of this year amid a bold rebuild has been the improvement in the Eels' defence — a barometer of attitude and resilience — after four years of decline post-2020 (4th, 8th, 11th, 16th, to 10th defence rank this year). Kaizen in motion. The late-season surge was also a glimpse of what the Eels could be. A genuine turning point? Hopefully. I'm rooting for it. It's worth noting the cap won't be cleared up until 2027 with a significant war chest. If the improvement continues, it'll help encourage more players to come aboard.

 

A Brief SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • Coaching alignment: Unity between coach, CEO, GM, and board, giving Jason Ryles stability and space to implement long-term strategies. There is a promising Club-First, Team-First ethos building.

  • Defensive turnaround: From worst in the NRL over first six weeks to top-3 defence in the final seven-game stretch. Evidence of buy-in. 

    Nightmare start   1/ 6 (17%), rock bottom 17th last on ladder Attack second-worst (13.4pg), Defence worst, 17th (30.4pg) during this period
    Crawling out of hole 4 / 12 (33%), up one place 16th Attack 10th (21.3pg), Defence 11th (23.6pg)
    Blazing Finish 5 /  7 (71%), finish at 11th, highest of season Attack 7th, 27pg, Defence 3rd, 16.6pg

     

  • Momentum builder: Ended with a 5 from 7 wins, including 3 wins from 4 against top-eight teams — a sign they can match intensity at the pointy end. 

  • Competitiveness against best: Against the teams in the top-eight. Rounds 1-20 won 0 from 8. Rounds 21-27 won 3 from 4.

  • Rookies and most stepping up: Iongi, Smith, Papali’i, Kautoga, Tuivaiti, and even Russell providing impact for his best season to date; Paulo logging career-high minutes in a renassaince year; Williams' a career year; Walker proving the missing link in the middle

  • Ryles' recruitment strategies: Has a scent for the right fit and attitude. Fox, Walker, Iongi, Williams, Kautoga, Papali'i, Hawkins proving good recruits.
  • Back Three: Lomax, Fox, Iongi have been outstanding. Lomax is a Payne Haas on the wing. Helps relieve stress on pack.  
  • Improved culture: Younger, fitter, faster roster playing with visible resilience and cohesion. Leadership from Moses, Paulo, Walker, the Fox, and Williams.

  • Systems: attacking and defensive structures showing improvement and promise

Weaknesses

  • Ball control and errors: 13th in completions (79%) and 4th worst for errors (~12 per game). Has cost winnable matches.

  • Reliance on Moses: Win rate drops from 54% with him to 27% without. His kicking game is critical. 2026-2027 could hinge on his injury status.

  • Spine still evolving: Five-eighth role remains unresolved; a young spine still developing

  • Right-edge defence: Still the softest corridor; heavily targeted.

  • Overworking stars: Paulo’s heavy minutes and Lomax’s forced involvement (via premeditated kicks) risk burnout and inefficiency, and some lost opportunities.

Opportunities

  • Targeted recruitment: Punch in the middle and more strike out wide (centre) could elevate attack. A more established six?

  • Kaizen continuity: Another preseason under Ryles should help cohesion, combinations and sharpen execution.

  • Pathways and development: Shows promise and renewed investment. Translation into first-grade will be critical for sustainable success.

  • MOMAX: could be used with more variation. Sometimes pre-determined last-tackle kick for Lomax has resulted in lost opportunities.

Threats

  • Second-year syndrome: Young squad may regress in intensity and consistency after the adrenaline of a late-season surge.

  • Salary cap squeeze: Clean-up job in 2025–26 leaves limited flexibility until 2027; risks stagnation if injuries strike and depth challenged.

  • Roster succession gaps: Key veterans (Paulo, JDB, Walker, Fox) nearing the back end of careers.

  • Competition benchmark: Rivals like Panthers and Storm combine talent with calm-headed leadership (Cleary, Yeo, Grant). We're still a work in progress.

Quirky Stat 

  • The Eels have finished the season with three-straight wins for only the third time in the Eels' NRL history: 2001 (grand final), 2022 (grand final), and 2025.

Quick comparison with Dogs rebuild

  • It took their rebuild three years to get to the finals once Gus took over mid-2021 as the architect. They were in doldrums missing the finals five times 2017-2021 (11th-16th wooden spoon).
  • 1st Year  (2022):  16th ➝ 12th improvement from spoon after leaking 710 points in 2021 (Barrett)
  • 2nd Year (2023):  12th ➝ 15th regression to third-last (Ciraldo's first year)
  • 3rd Year  (2024):  15th ➝ 6th Finals, first time in eight years since 2016
  • 4th Year  (2025):  6th   ➝ 3rd Finals, top-four, for first time in thirteen years since 2012

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Replies

  • Prove them wrong joash 

  • I'll say this even if we were consistent defensively in those given years we still weren't good enough to beat Penrith.

    Ill also say that as a club there are clubs that are just in a stronger position across the board than us also.That's what we are fighting.

    We have hopefully turned the corner but make no mistake we are an injury away from mediocrity.Moses goes down again we are back to a flip of a coin around results.Because we are so far behind in many aspects I feel we are walking the knife edge around results headed foward until we can prove we can win without Moses.

    • Yep, sure, Coryn. Panthers can scale high altitudes, where others drop by the wayside under the sustained pressure. Big test this year.

      Also, I'd rather us be defensively more consistent than the Jeckyll-Hyde we were. I like resilience in a team.

      • Signs are very good especially the last 7 weeks with Moses at the wheel.

        More so I liked the growth amongst the players and the more and more they played together  you could see real tangible results starting to show.This showed in attack and defense.

        • Well said. I'm not going to count my chickens,  but I'd agree with that Coryn.

          In "theory", we should improve further after another off-season together. Cohesion wise and systems development.

          A lot depends on what happens between the ears. The Souths loss, where they won the loose ball contest and wanted the game more, showed that there could be the odd drop off in between the ears. Second Year syndrome alert. Admittedly, it's impossible to be "up" every game, week after week. It's a gruelling grind. 

          There's a good chemistry brewing. We don't seem to have as many egos clashing as we used to. In addition to what you said, I'm really liking some of the senior players Ryles has brought in for experience and leadership. The likes of Walker, Fox, Williams. Real team players. They help the rookies and Junior as a calming counterbalance to Moses' fiery disposition at times.

      • I'd like to think the pillars have been put in place and I think this is a slow burn there's no night and day improvement happening overnight here.Which again is fine.

        Continual improvement is the answer with no doubt a few bumps along the way.That's all we can ask for.

        We have a tough road to travel though as alot of these mentioned teams aren't going to regress especially the good ones who have the mentioned pillars in place.

        • The way we ended the season was perfect for this group. Gives them confidence and the staff confidence as well. When we started 0-4 i said with finals very unlikely the key now has to be to finish strong. That we did winning 5 of our last 6. 3 of those 5 wins against top 8 teams.

  • Cracking blog HOE, all information and statistics prove the club is on the right track - hopefully after the GF some big signing announcements are made. Go you good thing, top 8 is a certainity all things being equal.Well done mate.

    • Thanks, Mick! Cheers buddy. You had me going with your profile lol. Let's hope we keep improving.

      • Lol HOE you know I am channeling a mythical god lol much love to the fam,have a wonderful evening.

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