With Sivo and Brown signing until 2023, Moses 2024 and Matterson next (presumebly 2023/24). the list needs to be considered to who will be kept and let go as Papali'i will be upgraded and Penisini and Hollis both upgraded til 2023 also.
I'll go through off-contract list and predict what i believe will happen, though it is not gospel just my personal opinion, i could be way off. Just a bit of fun and hope i get some right, so here we go
Cartwright - defenite re-signing and will be happy with a bench spot for a few more years. Prediction re-signs til 2023.
Hipgrave (is technically off-contract) - though has a club option for 2022. Being able to play on an edge and in the middle, i believe considering it is in the clubs favour it does not hurt to keep him for depth for a further season. Prediction club takes up option for him to stay in 2022.
Opacic - Has had a good and stable start to 2021, being defensively capable of holding Sivo inline though attack is left to be desired having a defensive orientated centre doesn't hurt. Penisini is the future at centre, the question is who's centre will he occupy? Will he replace Opacic on the left side or Blake on the right. If NSW cup is any indicator, playing on the right would indicate the clubs preference of keeping Opacic with Sivo which is understandable. He grew up supporting the club and loves being first choice he will stay if he is able to. Prediction Opacic re-signs til 2022.
Lussick - An understandable signing, an apporoprate signing though Lussick hasn't wowed us in NSW Cup though with Mahoney at the club he doesn't have to. All he needs to look is serviceable, and though Roache looks better Lussick seems capable of a back-up role. Do you keep him past 2021? depends on Roache and depends if he is given an opportunity to start this year. With Grant more likely out of SOO Game I, Mahoney will get the QLD no.9 spot and Lussick will move into starting spot while he is out. If Lussick can get 3-4 games and do well Lussick might accept a one year extension, though he may want to either head to a club desperate for a hooker or head back to ESL. Prediction Lussick is offered one year extension, moves elsewhere
Smith - Mr. fix it role for him in 2021, and was playing it well until his injury in Round 7. Although the new 18 man rule will benefit him as a perfect example of an ideal 18th man, the player to come in if you're short on the bench and fill in wherever is needed. Smith you would think would want to move elsewhere in order to get constant game time but no been here since 2017 and happy playing the role he currently is. Now a club could come up and offer him a deal and use him in a similar role, though Smith is comfortable and will stay where he knows the system. Prediction Smith re-signs for 2022.
Stone - A weird situation, a good player is in there though injuries derail the chances that he was given then has to start again from scratch in order to get back into the 17. Playing more of a role on the edge in NSW Cup is giving him more of a resume to what he offers in a squad, though i think he is in the same boat as Smith. The only way i see Stone leaving is either Parramatta moving on or Stone picking up a guarenteed 17 spot or a massive pay upgrade to which i do not see happening. Stone is in a scenario where he stays at Parramatta or goes to another club who is considerably lower than Parramatta and plays when there are injuries or poor performances, i doubt he will ever be a starter. Prediction Stone re-signs for 2022.
Oldfield - Taking up a role of training up our young three quarters; Dunster, Penisini, Russell. He is handy to have at the club although his future at the club is reliant on Ferguson, if he stays i don't see a need for Oldfield as Dunster is the clear back-up with Russell perhaps upgrading, if he leaves Oldfield is the perfect back-up. So what will it be? Prediction leaves to a new club in 2022.
Ferguson - He deserves a new deal, there ive said, however only for one more year and at a slightly lower pay rate.Ferguson has his moments of stupidity, though i would say more times than most he is a strong running winger that adds experience and confidence to this playing group, with Dunster playing fine, it is not enough to be fully confident of moving on from Fergo. Only way he will leave is 1. gets a massive deal at another Sydney club. 2. gets a serious injury this year, 3. He will not agree to a cheaper deal. I believe unless a Sydney club does better he will stay for a one year deal, his kids all live in Sydney there is leverage as he wants to stay in Sydney with them. Prediction Ferguson signs for 2022.
Rankin - This one is simple, well even more now with Arthur's appearances, Rankin will go elsewhere in 2022. Will it surprise me if Parra keep him for 2022? well no but now Arthur has shown he is at least up to the standard of a stand in Rankin is not needed, especially with Smith re-signing in this post. Nothing personal with his ability, just not needed and his squad spot could be used elsewhere. Prediction leaves elsewhere in 2022.
Hughes - Now i believe if he is to return to footy in 2022 it will be with Parramatta, unless he needs a change of scenary. I am not going to predict Hughes for 2022, having no idea on his whereabouts for 2021 and it should be none of anyones business. If he continues for 2022 with Parramatta or another club i hope for nothing but best wishes for him and hope he achieves first grade.
To finish i will also discuss deals i believe will get done before 2022 kick off
Gutherson and Mahoney i believe will extend, Gutho until 2025 and Mahoney until 2024.
Replies
We are running out of cap space - Papalii and Cartwright would need considerable upgrades. Moses, Gutherson and Mahoney will not be on less - Mahoney may be a considerable upgrade. I doubt we can afford Fergo unless he takes a considerable down grade.
I would move Blake to the wing and have Nuikore and Opacic as centres. That hopefully will give us the money we need to upgrade Papalii and Cartwright.
I think we're probably still OK though. Even with upgrades we have one of the least expensive spines in the league. We also have a number of young players on the roster, Dunster, Penisini, Arthur, Hollis, Hughes, Stone, Kaufusi, of which only really Kaufusi will get a significant bump in his salary in the next year or two.
Our core is pretty well maxed out now, RCG, Junior, Nathan Brown, Mitch Moses, Gutho, Niukore, Lane, Matterson, Sivo, Waqa Blake, Fergo. Of those only really Gutho & maybe Niukore are going to be paid significantly more then they are now, assuming Mitch has agreed to terms.
The only really big movers will be certainly Reed Mahoney, and maybe Papa & Carty.
I think Mark O'Neill has it in hand. With the quality, age & stability in our spine, we'll have no shortage of bargain players wanting to play for us in the coming years.
If you're a journeyman type player looking for an opportunity or a change of scenery, we are a very attractive proposition now.
Not sure Fergo will resign, but other than that you probably spot on.
Fergo will be gone he knows that they have been upfront about it
I am past Fergs, he's having a fair year so far, & improvement on last year which I think injuries cruelled him, but I really do not see any value in keeping him, unless minimal contract and CO for him. As for Waqa, I am totally unsure about him, have looked at some stats for him last year and at the Riff, its a real head shaker, his defence reads overall have been good, yet somehow what is seen on the paddock does not seem to gell with the stats.
My belief is that Fergo despite various abilitiies is the problem, and he is caught out too much in leaving his wing and pushing in, if Waqa was on the wing with a decent 4 on his inside I believe we could see a better player in him. Should Waqa stay and Fergs head elsewhere next year, it leaves Waqa on a contract that has 2 years left, if he fails still with a decent player in or outsied him, then he should be offered the option to look elsewhere.
At this stage, the right side is still our weakest link.
The one most likely to look at his options will be Reed with upgrades to the squad we may not match offers he will be in high demand especially if he he's becomes a rep player by then.
We may face the awkward scenario of letting a player go to keep him possibly putting Dylan brown in the gun as the player most expendable
If anything, i would suggest Mahoney is one of the most important players in our team
A few years ago he was 4th out the 4 spine players in terms of priority, now you could argue he is close or equal second to Moses behind Gutho with Brown as the clear 4th
With Arthur coming in it could be good to have him as an option in 2023 and move Brown on to keep Mahoney.
Can we please try and piss of Waqa to the tigers
Out of your list I would release Stone, Oldfield, Ferguson and Rankin.
Move Blake to the wing as he is faster and better in the air than Fergo.
Keep Niukore in the centers until Penisini is ready.
We have enough forward depth so Stone is surplus to requirements.
Oldfield and Rankin are gap fillers in NSW cup who can be replaced with juniors.
Ok, here I go:
Carty - Keep
Hipgrave: Been disapointing. I would not keep.
Tom: solid, without being brilliant. I would keep him.
Lussick: Have seen no reggies, so I don't know. Same with Roche, but we need a back up for Reed, so we will have to keep at least one.
Smith and Stone: I am not in love with them, but if only one was to stay, I would go for Smith
Oldfield: Never jumped for joy when he signed. Next
Fergo: Sorry, his time is up
Rankin: I saw him in the trials, and I thought he did well, but as he hasn't got a look in so far,, I don't like his chances of staying.
Hughes: No idea. Know nothing about him
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