UPDATE: Latrell out, Cody Walker on bench, Iongi is named at Six but may play at fullback, Hawkins is out
The Eels are now hot favourites following the news of Latrell Mitchell being an out. They lose their primary weapon of destruction. But history suggests we still need to be weary.
Since 2017, the Eels have beaten Souths outside Parramatta just once leaking an average 40 points a game. Over the last nine meetings, they’ve managed only a single win in 2023.
They have won almost every Indigenous Round (9 of 11), while the Eels less than half (5 of 11). Souths also have the wood on the Eels (3 of 4) for their Indigenous Round clashes.
Both sides come off nail-biters last week. The Eels edged the Cowboys 19–18, while Souths snapped a nine-game losing streak with a 22–20 win over the Titans, boosted by the return of Latrell Mitchell and Humpreys.
Souths will be fired up, not just for the occasion, backs-to-the-walls, but also for Alex Johnston, who needs three tries to equal Ken Irvine’s premiership record.
Expect drama, but perhaps with less fireworks. Let's trot.
Team Lists
Souths v Eels, Saturday, 16 August 2025, 7:35pm AEST, Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Weather: Windy 20-25kmh, earlier rain, coolish 10-11C, 50% humidity
Sportsbet: Eels $1.63, Souths $2.28. Now, Eels $1.43, Souths $2.84 with news Latrell is out.
Referees: Gerard Sutton (on-field), Matt Noyen (bunker), Drew Oultram & Kasey Badger (touch judges)
| Souths: | Eels: |
|
1. Jye Gray Cut: 3. Latrell Mitchell, 19. Lewis Dodd, 20. Salesi Ataata 21. Haizyn Mellars
|
1. Joash Papali’i Cut: 19. Dan Keir, 20. Haze Dunster, 22. Toni Mataele 6. Dean Hawkins |
| Coach: W Bennett |
Coach: J Ryles
|
|
Ins: Shaquai Mitchell , Cody Walker (returning from a hamstring injury) |
Ins: Isaiah Iongi (returning from a hand injury) Outs: 6Dean Hawkins |
Holding the Torch
Souths will honour Indigenous icons, with Olympic gold medallist Cathy Freeman ringing the Legacy Bell alongside Greg Inglis. Tallis Duncan reflected.
“[Freeman’s gold medal] is something you learn about growing up. The run is amazing but then you learn what was behind it… to meet her is pretty special.”
Getty Image: Freeman with Inglis after Souths' 2014 grand final victory.
Random Stats
This century, the Eels have only beaten Souths once when trailing at half-time. It was back in 2010, down 2–8.
Mitchell Matters. During this year and last year's rough seasons for Souths: When he doesn’t play they win 25% (5 of 20). When he plays they win 38% (9 of 24). They score more, and concede less when he plays.
Edge Battles
On the Cusp of History. Alex Johnston has scored 18 tries in 15 games against the Eels. He will test the Eels right edge.
Souths have the third-most lethal left edge and will target the Eels’ right edge. A weakness the Cowboys exploited last week for all their three tries. Humphreys may use short kicks, a tactic that’s worked for the Storm and the Cowboys. Papali’i should brace for aerial raids.
Souths’ left edge is also the second-most leaky, giving Moses a chance to hit Lomax, Guymer or Penisini. MOMAX time? Their right edge isn’t much better: another Fox double?
Flying Fox: Addo-Carr has 14 tries in 14 games.
Defensive Trends
Souths have missed more tackles than any team this season and rank second-worst for ineffective ones (nearly 40 a game). The Eels aren’t far behind for missed tackles, sixth-worst, yet have shown resilience.
Last week Souths defended patiently, sliding well and forcing the Titans towards the sideline. The Eels will need to be more direct and use variation, not just sweeping coast-to-coast.
In the Middle
The ruck battle looms large. Ryley Smith has been a standout with Tallyn Da Silva still finding his feet in our systems. Expect Brandon Smith around the 20-minute mark for punch. He made a telling bust last week despite some rust.
Final Word
Souths are a different side without Latrell, a far weaker one with less fireworks, even with Humphreys and Brandon Smith back. But will we see trainers act as extra players and fullbacks? High shots on Papali'i go unpunished? A Moses spray? Who will score more: The Fox or AJ?
Moses’ captaincy will be crucial, leaning on Paulo, Williams, Lomax, Hopgood and Addo-Carr. Also, the Eels must cut errors as that almost cost them against the Cowboys and Broncos or give Souths a way in.
Missing Mitchell is Massive. Souths are long odds. But history suggests we shouldn't write Souths off completely. Add Indigenous pride, Johnston’s milestone, back-to-the-walls fight, and Souths may rise to the occasion against all odds.
Strap your seatbelts on.
Eels celebrate last week's close encounter against the Cowboys.
Spoon alert Sportsbet: Titans ($1.91), Knights ($2.88), Souths ($5.50), Eels ($23), Cowboys ($71), St George ($251)
Replies
Good comment Coryn and nice to see you on board. Those have always been my thoughts.
South Sydney are Parramatta's ultimate bogey side. Let's look at some of their recent wins over Parra. 42-24, 38-0, 38-24, 38-20, 26-0, 40-12, 30-12, 42-26, 32-16
Steel, exactly. You study history, and it tells a sad story over many years. Will we see a an upswing cycle change with Ryles at the helm?
As Longfin suggested it's a different team with different structures.
Ryles has done something in 20 weeks despite a distasterous few weeks to start that BA never managed in 11 years. Improve vulnerabilities out wide and be consistently resilient. It's also more in alignment with the modern game. Hopefully that continues its trajectory.
BA's team was Jeckly-Hyde week to week or every few weeks. They had defensive frailities out wide due to a compressed ruck & middle laterally challenged. Tailor made for Souths. His over reliance on a simple game plan, winning the collision in the middle and two hot halves doing the rest, didn't evolve fast enough to the times. Aging without the right mental habits they imploded. The rise started in 2019 (after the rebuild) but the rot actually started from post 2020, defensively.
South's have owned us in recent years because they had a good team in its prime, the current Souths team is far from that and hardly has a forward pack right now. If the officials aren't to heavily in Souths favour we should overpower them
We played them last year when they had 10 players out and they even had a third choice halfback yet still put 40 fucking points on us.
To be fair, they weren't going as bad, wet night and the week after BA was sacked. It was 42-26 which seemed flattering to us.
You have yo remember, this is not a BA coached side, who too often fell away after a few weeks of solid games. Ryles will have the boys up for this. It could set the scene for next year if we can kick on here. We need to play this like we are a top 8 side.
If we can aim up for the 80 mins and limit errors then we are right up there. We simply need to kick well, kick long and short! Turn them around - play up tempo; and limit their time in our red zone.
We can win this.
We should win this. But with Sutton reffing and its indigenous round Cathy and Greg there the nrl will be having a massive jizz in their pants over souths. Sutton to absolutely cane us with the 6 agsins and penalties
This is one of those games we should win easily.
In the past, that would equal a guaranteed loss.
Let's hope that Ryles has knocked that complacency from former years out of their heads.
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