I posted in an earlier blog that we had 37% possession in the first half. That is not going to win you any games. Ever.
I've just had a look at the overall stats as posted by NRL.com and it makes for some interesting reading.
| Tigers | Eels | |||||
| Actual | Per minute | per 50% possession | Actual | Per minute | per 50% possession | |
Possession | 58% | 42% | ||||
| Time in possession (minutes) | 29.85 | 25.74 | 21.62 | 25.74 | ||
| Completion Rate | 88% | 77% | ||||
| Completion Rate (sets) | 35/40 | 1.17 | 23/30 | 1.06 | ||
| Offense | ||||||
| All Runs | 169 | 5.66 | 145.70 | 152 | 7.03 | 180.93 |
| All Run Metres | 1,291 | 43.25 | 1,113.03 | 1,177 | 54.44 | 1,401.02 |
| Post Contact Metres | 315 | 10.55 | 271.58 | 358 | 16.56 | 426.14 |
| Linebreaks | 7 | 0.23 | 6.04 | 3 | 0.14 | 3.57 |
| Tackle Breaks | 35 | 1.17 | 30.18 | 34 | 1.57 | 40.47 |
| Average Set Distance | 32 | 1.08 | 27.85 | 39 | 1.81 | 46.66 |
| Kick Return Metres | 172 | 5.76 | 148.29 | 197 | 9.11 | 234.50 |
| Passing | ||||||
| Offloads | 9 | 0.30 | 7.76 | 10 | 0.46 | 11.90 |
| Receipts | 383 | 12.83 | 330.20 | 365 | 16.88 | 434.47 |
| Total Passes | 209 | 7.00 | 180.19 | 198 | 9.16 | 235.69 |
| Dummy Passes | 49 | 1.64 | 42.25 | 39 | 1.80 | 46.42 |
| Kicking | ||||||
| Kicks | 19 | 0.64 | 16.38 | 20 | 0.93 | 23.81 |
| Kicking Metres | 432 | 14.47 | 372.45 | 466 | 21.55 | 554.70 |
| Forced Drop Outs | 2 | 0.07 | 1.72 | 1 | 0.05 | 1.19 |
| Kick Defusal % | 57% | 0.02 | 0.49 | 75% | 0.03 | 0.89 |
| 40/20 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.86 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bombs | 4 | 0.13 | 3.45 | 5 | 0.23 | 5.95 |
| Grubbers | 3 | 0.10 | 2.59 | 5 | 0.23 | 5.95 |
| Defence | ||||||
| Effective Tackle % | 85.3% | 0.03 | 0.74 | 87.3% | 0.04 | 1.04 |
| Tackles Made | 291 | 9.75 | 250.88 | 358 | 16.56 | 426.14 |
| Missed Tackles | 34 | 1.14 | 29.31 | 40 | 1.85 | 47.61 |
| Ineffective Tackles | 16 | 0.54 | 13.79 | 12 | 0.56 | 14.28 |
| Negative Play | ||||||
| Errors | 4 | 0.13 | 9 | 0.42 | ||
| Penalties Conceded | 3 | 0.10 | 8 | 0.37 | ||
The per minute & 50% possession numbers indicate that if we can just get even close to an even share of possession the wins will come.
The most interesting numbers were the post contact & average set metres numbers.
When taken per minute we made 6.01m per minute post contact more than the Tigers. As a percentage we were 57% more effective per minute post contact than the opposition.
Average set distance was even more stark. Per minute the advantage in average set distance was 1.81m-1.08m, or a 68% advantage.
Now, I understand that these figures can't necessarily be automatically extrapolated, but it should give pause to the doomsayers who think that our season is done or that BA can't coach.
It should, but it won't.
Replies
I wonder Brett how much dubious refereeing decisions contributed heavily to the Eels lack of possession.
Yes, like most teams tend to when they are struggling, we compound errors with dumb penalties, but the penalties aren't the root cause. Poor ball control is. You can win games with the penalty count heavily against you, you can't win without possession.
Possession is king !
You could recruit the entire Kangaroos squad and it wouldn't mean dick if you only have 40% possession.
I don't know what you're on about Brett. This is another one of your lame excuses mate.
Look, possession doesn't magically appear and dissappear Brett and I'm going to give you a heads up on why the team are losing the possession stakes.
1. Being one of the smallest packs in the comp, defensively we are getting dominated by bigger forwards going through us, meaning we are constantly on the back foot scrambling, hence we are not set and giving away 10m penalties or holding on.. more ball opposition...
2. We get dominated rucking it out, meaning we are taking more risky plays and dropping the pill - more ball opposition.
3. As a smaller pack teams dominate us in field position, leading to other teams getting more attacking kicks - forcing a drop out or a mistake - more ball opposition.
Now tell me brett - what part of my post don't you understand.
It's perfectly obvious. Our pack can't match the opposition. We're too small and also have an ageing roster who are physically dominated.
Chief, the numbers from today's game, or the 3 previous games are just not consistent with your assertions.
Even though the Tigers had the ball for 8 more minutes in a game when the ball was in play for only 50 minutes, we actually had 43 more post contact metres, which is the primary measurement for middle forward effectiveness in offence. Taken on a per minute basis, we made 6m per minute more post contact than the Tigers.
Tell me again how our "puny" forward pack was dominated. Sorry Chief, the data just doesn't support your view, and it's not particularly close.
I'll say it again, if we can get even 45% possession the wins will start coming.
Find the stats for the Manly game and Cronulla and try again
The post contact metres and stats are clearly against your view. We did not get dominated dumb ass
Brett you keep defending the team. I remember telling you last season that, despite our winning, the writing was on the wall and that our weak forward pack would eventually be exposed. You kept saying that our forwards could still do the job because they complemented each other. Will you finally realise that far our forward pack, as a collective like you say, is not good enough and that it needs a major overhaul?
First of all, I'm not defending the team. Their lack of respect for possession has been borderline criminal, and I have said that repeatedly. I wouldn't matter if we had Bromwich, Maclean, Taumalolo, Cordner & Coen Hess as our starting pack with Klemmer, Vaughn, Frizell & Jake Trbojevic on the bench, if you only get 40% possession you're not winning a game of footy.
Last year our forward pack was for the most part fine because in most games we got at least 45% possession.
But more to the point, the key metrics for middle forward effectiveness in both offence & defence simply do not reflect the notion that our forwards cannot match it with the best in the league. Today, despite the lack of possession we actually won the battle of post contact metres.
Possession is king !
That is true Coryn, possession by itself doesn't generate points and therefore wins, but that's next level. You've got fix the first problem and that is possession. If you're constantly defending because you keep turning the ball over, you won't have anywhere near enough energy to generate any kind of meaningful offensive pressure.
Once you've got an even share of the ball then you're in a much better position to ask questions of the defence.
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